Dec 27th Severe thread

[downeastnc]

Latest from SPC.......

...NRN FL/SRN GA...ERN CAROLINAS INTO EXTREME SERN VA...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE

PERIOD OVER PARTS OF NWRN FL AND SWRN GA ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD

FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS NRN FL AND

GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY MID/LATE MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO A LESS

UNSTABLE AIR MASS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE

FRONT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY AN INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS A VERY

STRONG /60-70 KT/ 850 MB JET INTENSIFIES AND LIFTS NEWD FROM GA

ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND ERN VA DURING THE DAY...WITH 60-64F SURFACE

DEW POINTS SPREADING INTO SERN GA AND THE ERN CAROLINAS. OVERALL

INSTABILITY WILL BE TEMPERED BY INTENSE SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT/NEAR

MOST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY AOB 500

J/KG. HOWEVER...A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER FROM SERN GA INTO THE

ERN CAROLINAS MAY PERMIT AREAS OF LOCALLY STRONGER DIURNAL

DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOW TOP STORMS TO INTENSIFY BY MID-LATE

MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLY DEVELOPING

INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. THE VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ALSO MAY

SUPPORT EMBEDDED ROTATING STRUCTURES...WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING

WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH RAPIDLY MOVING LINE SEGMENTS AND ISOLATED

SUPERCELLS. THERE WILL ALSO BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BRIEF

TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS WHERE LOW LEVEL

MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END BY

LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE WEST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES

OFFSHORE.

[downeastnc]

From RAH

REGARDING THE THREAT OF CONVECTION...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE: THE

PRIMARY FORCING WITH THE ACCELERATING/DEAMPLIFYING WAVE ALOFT WILL

ONLY GLANCE THE BRIEFLY EXPANDING WARM SECTOR...AT LEAST THAT

CHARACTERIZED BY ANY INSTABILITY ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

WHILE THAT DISCONNECT SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE INLAND EXTENT OF ANY

SEVERE...MAINLY TO THE RAH COASTAL PLAIN WHICH IS HIGHTLIGHTED IN

THE SWODY2 OUTLOOK...THE COMBINATION OF THE PROJECTED EXTREME LLJ

AND THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET

ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE WAVE SUGGESTS STRONG WIND GUSTS -- IN

SHALLOW CONVECTION DEVOID OF ANY LIGHTNING -- WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL

INLAND OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT (WHERE THE

STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY BE TOO GREAT FOR ANY PENETRATIVE

DOWNDRAFTS). THE STRONG AND RAPIDLY EASTWARD-SWEEPING FRONTAL

FORCING WILL FAVOR A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE...BUT VERY LONG AND

CURVED HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWS AND

ACCOMPANYING RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE OTHERWISE STRONGLY-FORCED LINE...PARTICULARLY AS THE LINE

MOVES INTO AND POSSIBLY REALIZES THE INCREASINGLY BOUNDARY-LAYER

BASED INSTABILITY PROJECTED NEAR 500 J/KG FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS

THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM KFAY TO KIXA.

OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD ALSO BECOME QUITE WINDY IN THE WARM SECTOR

EVEN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...AS A POWERFUL 50-70 KT LLJ JET

ACCELERATES ACROSS THE REGION. NWP GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT

AGREEMENT INDICATING AROUND ONE HALF TO NEAR THREE QUARTERS OF AN

INCH OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.

From MHX

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

AS OF 3 PM TUES...HIGH-SHEAR LOW-CAPE SCENARIO SETTING UP FOR

TUES AFTERNOON INTO TUES EVENING. UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH NORTHEAST

ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TUES MORNING AND WILL

DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TUES AFTERNOON INTO THE

EVENING. SURFACE BASED CAPE PROGGED TO BE 400-500 J/KG WITH 0-1KM

HELICITY VALUES 500-600 M2/S2. AS TYPICAL...INSTABILITY WILL BE

THE LIMITING FACTOR. IMPRESSIVE LLJ 40-50 KNOTS JUST OFF THE

SURFACE TO 60-70 KNOTS AT 850 MB. PWATS NEAR 1.50 INCHES WILL BE

NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DEC. BREAKS IN

BKN/OVC CLOUDS WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY

LAYER. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW TOPPED CONVECTION

AHEAD AND COLLOCATED WITH THE FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED GUSTY WINDS AND

HEAVY RAIN IN WX GRIDS AND MAINTAINED THUNDER AS ISOLATED. TEMPS

AND DEWPOINTS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY OVERNIGHT INTO TUES MORNING AS

WINDS VEER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH...ALLOWING STRONG WAA TO BRING IN

DEWPOINTS AT LEAST INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S...WITH A FEW 60S

POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST AND ALONG THE OBX. TEMPS WILL

BUILD INTO THE MID 60S. GIVEN STRONG WIND FIELD...HAVE HOISTED

WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE OBX...MAINLAND DARE AND MAINLAND HYDE

COUNTIES ALONG WITH CARTERET COUNTY. LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND WILL

SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST 20-25 KNOTS AT TIMES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN

BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

Sounds like there could be a pretty widespread event with lots of 40-60 mph gust possible with any squall line that forms....we get a few breaks in the clouds and things could get a bit nasty....

[Jon]

80 views, but not one reply...man, wonder why people aren't talking about this? You being in Greenville I can see why you're following this closely.

I'm interested to see how much sunlight we get and how this turns out. Doesn't look like too many are buying a tornadic solution here but some isolated severe t-storms and some nice winds seems likely. Either way, at least it's something outside of the dull winter we have had to start the season off..

[buckeyefan1]

CAE....looks like the severe threat will be east of here as usual

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

MORE MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. CLOUDS STILL WEST BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 40S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW. WILL BEGIN TO MENTION LOWS POPS...THEN INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES AS 2-4 KFT WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 50-60 KNOTS ADVECTING MOISTURE TO REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW OPENING AND LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SQUALL LINE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING CDFNT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY INDUCE ROTATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP. MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO BE EAST OF A CLT TO CAE TO AGS LINE. POPS WILL INCREASE FROM LOW CHANCE TO CATEGORICAL OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW... THEN DECREASING THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER TO MOISTEN UP OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW. HENCE WILL GO WITH WARMER NAM TEMPS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S

[downeastnc]

80 views, but not one reply...man, wonder why people aren't talking about this? You being in Greenville I can see why you're following this closely.

I'm interested to see how much sunlight we get and how this turns out. Doesn't look like too many are buying a tornadic solution here but some isolated severe t-storms and some nice winds seems likely. Either way, at least it's something outside of the dull winter we have had to start the season off..

Yeah since it appears to mostly be a RDU east issue at this time I wasnt expecting to many folks to chime in lol.

The only tornado I have seen clearly and up close was the EF1 March 27th 2009 in a somewhat similar type setup ( low instability crazy shear ) the thing touched down a 1/4 mile from my home and got within 350 yrds of my front door.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/EventReviews/20090327/20090327.php

The timing is about perfect ( early afternoon) for RDU to Greenville, if we get any kinda sun and DP's into the 55-65 range I think we will see several tornado warnings as any decent updrafts that do form wont take much to spin up weak EF0-EF1 tornados. I doubt we see anything stronger than that and I bet lots of places could see general winds in the squall lines to 40-60 mph.

[Suncat]

When was the last time that the chance of a tornado was in the forecast for December in NC?

[downeastnc]

When was the last time that the chance of a tornado was in the forecast for December in NC?

Its not very common at all and Dec is the month with the lowest number of tornados at least in eastern NC.

[shaggy]

Hatched 5% tornado risk for the slight risk area.

[shaggy]

AS INLAND AIRMASS MODIFICATION/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING

OCCURS...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT/ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS

WILL LIKELY AID THE DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF LOW-TOPPED LINE

SEGMENTS/QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS GA/CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY

ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD-ACCELERATING COLD FRONT. GIVEN

THIS...THE DEVELOPMENT OF EMBEDDED BOWS/POSSIBLE CIRCULATIONS WOULD

ULTIMATELY LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE/SOME TORNADO RISK

TODAY...EVEN WHERE BUOYANCY WILL BE SCANT ACROSS THE

CAROLINAS/EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST VA. ADDITIONALLY...AHEAD OF THE

CONVECTIVE LINE/COLD FRONT...LOW-TOPPED/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS

WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN COASTAL AREAS OF THE CAROLINAS...WHERE

ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL EXIST /300+ M2 PER S2 0-1 KM SRH/

COINCIDENT WITH A MOISTENING/WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. ANY SUCH

SUSTAINED STORMS COULD POSE A TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE

OF SHEAR/SRH...AT LEAST ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.

[andyhb]

Its not very common at all and Dec is the month with the lowest number of tornados at least in eastern NC.

2011 hasn't been a common year for the SE.

[Solak]

Latest HWO our of RAH

429 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2011

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO

ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND

SANDHILLS BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN BETWEEN

1 PM AND 4 PM. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS UP TO 65 MPH AND AN

ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE

FRONT....WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH MAY OCCUR FOR AN HOUR TOR TWO.

WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL DOWN SEVERAL TREE LIMBS AS WELL AS A

FEW DISEASED OR SHALLOW ROOTED TREES. THIS MAY LEAD TO SPORADIC

AND BRIEF POWER OUTAGES.

[Solak]

MHX is looking at mainly a wind event, it appears

500 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2011

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND

CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STRONG

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON

AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH AND TORRENTIAL

DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS.

and from AKQ

STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS UP 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD ALSO BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING SEVERE

WINDS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER AND ISOLATED TORNADOES PRIMARILY ACROSS

SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

[shaggy]

With the clouds and cold temps this morning its hard to believe we can destabalize enough to see this threat really happen. Winds have shifted to the SE now so we will see what that does as far as warming us up.

[WeatherNC]

With the clouds and cold temps this morning its hard to believe we can destabalize enough to see this threat really happen. Winds have shifted to the SE now so we will see what that does as far as warming us up.

Agree shaggy, 45/37 as of 9:30am under cloudy skies this time of year, not feeling it. Sat and radar are not supportive for any clearing later, so we are likely looking at a marginal wind threat at best, depending on if and when the warm front gets here. ILM is checking in with 64/53 and JAX 52/47, so we still have a ways to go before 50-maybe 60F dp work up here. 9z SREF does bring some sigtor values of 2 and super cell composites of 9 into the central coastal plain around 21z/3pm est.

[downeastnc]

Agree shaggy, 45/37 as of 9:30am under cloudy skies this time of year, not feeling it. Sat and radar are not supportive for any clearing later, so we are likely looking at a marginal wind threat at best, depending on if and when the warm front gets here. ILM is checking in with 64/53 and JAX 52/47, so we still have a ways to go before 50-maybe 60F dp work up here. 9z SREF does bring some sigtor values of 2 and super cell composites of 9 into the central coastal plain around 21z/3pm est.

JAX up to 64/55.... New Bern up to 55/49....Cherry Pt 63/52 so the warmer moist air is there its just 50 miles to our SE still.......I think we can hang up seeing any sun based on the vis sat image at least anytime in the next 2-4 hrs. Current radar also is pretty blah but the timing is still for mid afternoon so I guess we wait and see.

[kanc2001]

looks like more of a wind event with frontal passage, not so much in the way of T-storms

[WeatherNC]

looks like more of a wind event with frontal passage, not so much in the way of T-storms

I don't expect to hear any thunder out of this, if we did it would be a blessing as there is some old adage around here about thunder this time of year and SN. A more organized convective event was dependent on some pockets of clearing developing during the late-morning/early afternoon and as downeast just mentioned, this appears unlikely. The line just west on 95 in SC does appear to be getting better organized, just a wait and see approach, dp slowly rising, up to 43 from 37 an hour ago.

vis valid 10:15am est

[buckeyefan1]

My temp has jumped to 63 and the dp is 60. Quite windy outside with it gusting around 45mph

CAE......

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --

UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS RAPIDLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH 60 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING THE RAIN SHIELD OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION ALIGNED CLOSELY WITH THE SURFACE FRONT OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. RAIN SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 16Z-19Z TIME FRAME AS UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS OUT AND DRY AIR ALOFT QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION. POPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO CLEAR OUT THE RAIN EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IMPROVE SKY COVER. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS A BIT MORE DIMINISHED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY STILL BE AT RISK IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP FROM SURGING DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH SOME POSSIBLE SUNSHINE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG WINDS APPEAR TO BE MORE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT AS THERE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR BETTER MIXING OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

-- End Changed Discussion --

[downeastnc]

I don't expect to hear any thunder out of this, if we did it would be a blessing as there is some old adage around here about thunder this time of year and SN. A more organized convective event was dependent on some pockets of clearing developing during the late-morning/early afternoon and as downeast just mentioned, this appears unlikely. The line just west on 95 in SC does appear to be getting better organized, just a wait and see approach, dp slowly rising, up to 43 from 37 an hour ago.

vis valid 10:15am est

Cherry Point went from 52 to 63 in a hr and its taking awhile for the updates so New Bern is still at 55 but that was at 9:54 I am willing to bet its higher now.....Greenville is up to 50/45 so we might just get the temp/dp up there the real question is does that alone do what it takes to force a severe event.....

Edit: New Bern just updated 65/54

[WeatherNC]

Cherry Point went from 52 to 63 in a hr and its taking awhile for the updates so New Bern is still at 55 but that was at 9:54 I am willing to bet its higher now.....Greenville is up to 50/45 so we might just get the temp/dp up there the real question is does that alone do what it takes to force a severe event.....

SPC seems to think so...

A MODIFYING WARM SECTOR WILL SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS TO THE TIDEWATER REGION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS MOISTENING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN LIMITING SURFACE HEATING.

slp is in an ok position for svr here, beginning to deepen rapidly as it moves into NE, dropping around 10mb over the next 12hrs. Fireplace is still going, will wait for 60 outside before I shut it down.

[downeastnc]

From RAH for just south of the triangle

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

1148 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2011

NCZ042-076>078-085-086-088-089-271900-

CUMBERLAND-HARNETT-HOKE-JOHNSTON-LEE-SAMPSON-SCOTLAND-WAYNE-

1148 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2011

...STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH 2 PM...

AT 1145 AM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NEAR LAURINBURG SOUTHWARD TOWARD

CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA... MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST

AT 65 MPH.

WITHIN AND JUST BEHIND THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS... WINDS MAY GUST TO

35 TO 50 MPH... WITH FREQUENT GUSTS LASTING AS MUCH AS 15 TO 30

MINUTES. SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE LAURINBURG... RAEFORD...

FAYETTEVIELLE... LILLINGTON...SANFORD...CLINTON... BENSON...

SMITHFIELD... MOUNT OLIVE... AND GOLDSBORO. THIS INCLUDES

INTERSTATES 74... 40... AND 95.

THESE STRONG WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND

LIMBS... AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS... LAWN FURNITURE... HOLIDAY

DECORATIONS... AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS. MOTORISTS ARE URGED

TO ANTICIPATE THESE GUSTS BY KEEPING A FIRM GRIP ON THE WHEEL. RAIN

MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES... SO DRIVERS SHOULD TRAVEL BELOW THE POSTED

SPEED LIMITS TO LOWER THE RISK OF SUDDEN BRAKING AND HYDROPLANING.

[WeatherNC]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2396

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1105 AM CST TUE DEC 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN SC AND ERN NC TO SERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271705Z - 271800Z

PARTS OF NERN SC AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN NC INTO FAR SERN VA ARE

BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

POTENTIAL FOR A WW OVER ERN NC IS 50%. GIVEN STRONG WIND FIELDS

ACROSS THIS REGION /50-55 KT AT 3 KFT AGL PER AREA WSR-88D

VAD/...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NEWD

MOVING LINE OF CONVECTION IN NERN SC SPREADING INTO S CENTRAL/SERN

NC. MEANWHILE...A TORNADO THREAT AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME A

CONCERN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE NRN SC

COAST...MOVES ONSHORE IN ERN NC...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

AT 1630Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED

LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION OVER ERN SC /NRN MARLBORO COUNTY TO

CENTRAL COLLETON COUNTY/. THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED ALONG THE

APPARENT LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH HAS BEGUN TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE

TILT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SURFACE ANALYSES

INDICATED SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...1/

SWRN OH/NRN KY...2/WRN NC...AND 3/ 30 MILES OFFSHORE THE NERN SC

COAST OR 40 SSE CRE. THIS LATTER LOW IS TRACKING NEARLY PARALLEL TO

THE SC COAST...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK /TOWARD THE NNE/ AND

SPEED /50-55 KT/ THIS COMPACT LOW WILL LIKELY GLANCE THE SERN NC

COAST /BRUNSWICK COUNTY BY 1730Z/ AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE IN ONSLOW

AND CARTERET COUNTIES BY 18Z. THIS LOW WOULD TRACK ASHORE WITHIN

THE WARM SECTOR...GIVEN THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH

EXTENDED INLAND AT LEAST ONE ROW OF COUNTIES IN NC. ENHANCED LOW

LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE SURFACE LOW...AND DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...

WOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASED TORNADO THREAT THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR

ERN NC INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.

..PETERS.. 12/27/2011

[Mencken_Fan]

Tornado Warning....

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 1245 PM EST

* AT 1219 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 12 MILES SOUTH

OF OAK ISLAND...OR ABOUT 19 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHALLOTTE...MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

LONG BEACH...

SOUTHPORT...

BOILING SPRING LAKES...

CAROLINA BEACH...

[kanc2001]

Tornado Warning....

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 1245 PM EST

* AT 1219 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 12 MILES SOUTH

OF OAK ISLAND...OR ABOUT 19 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHALLOTTE...MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

LONG BEACH...

SOUTHPORT...

BOILING SPRING LAKES...

CAROLINA BEACH...

thinking this may be a decent day for waterspouts, may head down to the water in a sec a take a peak

[downeastnc]

Check out the pressure falls at Cape Lookout the last 4 hrs

The first is the current obs.

Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.17 in ( Falling Rapidly )

11:00 am SSE 24 26 - - - - 29.92 -0.16 63.7 - 54.7 - - - 12 27

10:00 am SSE 23 26 - - - - 30.00 -0.10 63.3 - 54.0 - - - 12 27

9:00 am SSE 20 23 - - - - 30.04 -0.11 62.8 - 53.8

[downeastnc]

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 901

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

115 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2011

TORNADO WATCH 901 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EST FOR THE

FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-053-055-061-065-079-095-103-107-117-

133-137-139-143-147-163-177-187-191-195-280000-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0901.111227T1815Z-111228T0000Z/

NC

. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN

CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN

CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN

EDGECOMBE GREENE HYDE

JONES LENOIR MARTIN

ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK

PERQUIMANS PITT SAMPSON

TYRRELL WASHINGTON WAYNE

WILSON

$$

[downeastnc]

I am guessing there are a bunch of waterspouts associated with this line, its pretty sick and might give Morehead and Beaufort something to worry about before to long..

[WeatherNC]

Kind of surprised by this given radar, I would think PGV has another hour, maybe two to eek something svr out, otherwise, appears areas to our east have the greatest threat.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 901

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

115 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA

COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL

700 PM EST.

ISOLATED TORNADOES

ISOLATED INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS

ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF

CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA TO 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF

GOLDSBORO NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH

SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN

NC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN

INTENSE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TN/WV/VA. EXTREMELY STRONG LOW

LEVEL WIND FIELDS /3KM SRH VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 M2/S2/ COUPLED WITH

SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR

ISOLATED SUPERCELL/BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT. ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFT MAY

ATTAIN ROTATION AND POSE A THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR

TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.

Vis valid 1:31pm EST does show some pockets of broken working into ILM

[WeatherNC]

Back edge should be through here in about 30 minutes, a little wind/rn was about it, maybe a gust or two close to 30. Expect the watch to start being dropped west-east here shortly.

[kanc2001]

a little wind, about a .25" of rain, generally a bunch of meh