NorEastermass128 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Verbatim it has barely any QPF, but at least it's a step in the right direction. H5 trough axis goes negative post-96 at least. Maybe just a little too bit late and too far OTS. Still looks like there is some potential. Sharpen that a bit and I'd take a quick hitting 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 If we can get that whole boundary to shift south a bit, it would be a nice prolonged light snow event. It's sort of a tease on the GFS, but not far off from happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 If we can get that whole boundary to shift south a bit, it would be a nice prolonged light snow event. It's sort of a tease on the GFS, but not far off from happening. What effect is that massive LP having in the far upper midwest? Is it acting as the 'kicker'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I just lost a nice post and don't feel like repeating it..lol. Basically I think week 3 could trend warm given what I saw. It will come down to two things. The MJO and the AO. If the AO is strong, you have faster westerly winds and a ridge beat down.If it weakens and it might temporarily, then you have more amplitude. We also have a developing Caspian ridge too, which may help nudge the PV south and even split it. MJO may try to help out if you believe the GEFS, but the euro weakens it into the COD and goes back towards phase 4. I just don't see an overall pattern change especially if the euro is right and brings the vortex back to AK. This software has autosave now so posts should be saved if you accidentally click out of the post screen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The problem I see with this potential is the s/w that is hot on it's heels. Does not allow for much amplification and keeps things progressive. If we can get that to slow down or dig further S along the west coast,. we may have a better overall setup for something more meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 This software has autosave now so posts should be saved if you accidentally click out of the post screen. Oh right that's true. I just pressed the wrong key and it disappeared. How do you get it back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 What effect is that massive LP having in the far upper midwest? Is it acting as the 'kicker'? Not necessarily, I just think we want the low to our north to be strong enough and force the boundary south like the euro op as. A nice polar high will keep temps pretty cold even at BOS. GFS is trying to do that, but the euro op last night was something that caught my eye. I liked it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS tries to look more like the euro for Saturday. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Man that is going to be a nice cold shot this time next week as modeled. -20C 850's in the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Looks like a disorganized mess to me on the GFS...but at least it is cold Sunday/Monday look better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Actually, the GFS does a Walt Drag cold air tuck down into BOS and ORH for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Better cold and dry then warm and wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Will be nice to have some snow OTG this weekend..and a nice cold shot to support it afterwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Regardless of sensible weather, gotta keep the big picture in mind. If the second trough over the Northern Plains is allowed to bomb like it does, that's the beginning of a notable disturbance in the +NAO regime. This trough does act as a kicker to the NYE s/w ... but actually, with respect to changes to the NYE storm on the 12z GFS, look at the arrangement of the smaller impulses within the trough over the Northeast. Anyway, I'd rather have the more strung out energy on the 12z GFS, because it sets up the next trough to bomb and cut off. Could be the trigger we need to upset the stable regime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GEFS are still pretty meh with the idea, but do give some light snows, esp NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GEFS are still pretty meh with the idea, but do give some light snows, esp NNE. Nothing to plan a ski trip on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The 12z gfs verbatim actually has highs in the single digits to low teens across the region for a week from today. Obviously it probably won't be that cold, but could be a nice cold shot at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Euro brings in some pretty stinging cold right after this system on our doorstep. Sets a god antecedent for whatever comes our way from the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I don't think the question is if there will be a storm..it's where it will be located. Quite possible it could be a congrats se Canada like some ensembles show. maybe i will delay my move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Euro is going to love us long time Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Euro brings in some pretty stinging cold right after this system on our doorstep. Sets a god antecedent for whatever comes our way from the clipper. The setup looks nice. 50/50 low in place good confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Euro brings in some pretty stinging cold right after this system on our doorstep. Sets a god antecedent for whatever comes our way from the clipper. It may take divine intervention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Euro brings in some pretty stinging cold right after this system on our doorstep. Sets a god antecedent for whatever comes our way from the clipper. How does the clipper look on the 12z EURO? I'm off to work in a bit and can't wait for WU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Euro brings in some pretty stinging cold right after this system on our doorstep. Sets a god antecedent for whatever comes our way from the clipper. We might even see the words wind chill, imagine that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Euro is going to love us long time Saturday. With showers. Lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Euro looks a little stronger then 0z and slightly north as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Gonna be a nice run overall though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Snow!!! Rain!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Nice snow event for interior areas saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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