New Year's Eve Threat

[Mr Torchey]

1028 hp north of maine and all of new england is absolutely scorched

se pig ridge rules the roost

[ag3]

Not surprised seeing i mentioned quebec yesterday

Its so NW, that is leaves almost all NYC, LI, CT and Massachusetts virtually dry.

[dryslot]

1028 hp north of maine and all of new england is absolutely scorched

se pig ridge rules the roost

1028 really is not all that high for up here

[ag3]

1028 hp north of maine and all of new england is absolutely scorched

se pig ridge rules the roost

Its not really a se ridge. Its more of the shortwave coming out a lot stronger then what was modeled a couple days ago. Allowing it to close off much quicker, amplify and raise heights ahead of it.

P.S. This stonger shortwave also killed the slim chance of the Jan. 3-5th storm.

[Mr Torchey]

1028 really is not all that high for up here

Perhaps, but the amount of warmth aloft and at the surface that is allowed to pour into new england is impressive, this is becoming comical, I never dreamed all of ne would share in this misery.

[Mr Torchey]

Its not really a se ridge. Its more of the shortwave coming out a lot stronger then what was modeled a couple days ago. Allowing it to close off much quicker, amplify and raise heights ahead of it.

P.S. This stonger shortwave also killed the slim chance of the Jan. 3-5th storm.

The amount of WAA ahead of a dying 1008 lp is not normal, there are other forces at play, such as the se ridge and scorching SST's, any other winter this would be a snow event for most of New England, any other winter there would be a surface reflection se of ne or even south of long island.........not this year.

[HoarfrostHubb]

The further the NW the better

No rain please

[Brian5671]

all of this should be a warning for any future snow threat--expect trends to the NW and milder temps as we close in on said event.

[ag3]

The amount of WAA ahead of a dying 1008 lp is not normal, there are other forces at play, such as the se ridge and scorching SST's, any other winter this would be a snow event for most of New England, any other winter there would be a surface reflection se of ne or even south of long island.........not this year.

With that track? Would perhaps start with snow with the WAA snows well before the actual storm. But with that track, all of SNE would be rain/sleet, no matter what winter.

If there was any blocking though, the shortwave would have no chance to amplify that much and drive north.

[mahk_webstah]

perhaps since this is yet another cutter, we are getting some transport of warmth to higher lats. It actually does look like we get much better after jan 10. Wasn't that Jerry? pattern change starts on Jan 10, complete by jan 25?

In all seriousness, since March has sucked several years in a row, perhaps we can just move everything forward a month....start winter in mid jan instead of mid dec and end in early April. works for me....

[dryslot]

Perhaps, but the amount of warmth aloft and at the surface that is allowed to pour into new england is impressive, this is becoming comical, I never dreamed all of ne would share in this misery.

Well the winds out ahead of the storm look to be out of the SW, We need HP in the 1030's over quebec to get any real benefit here and down your way to force the storm underneath us, That would be the ideal placement

[Mr Torchey]

Nam actually just made a huge jump towards the 0z gfs with a surface reflection off the sne coast line, that inland vorticity dampens out very quickly.

[Mr Torchey]

With that track? Would perhaps start with snow with the WAA snows well before the actual storm. But with that track, all of SNE would be rain/sleet, no matter what winter.

If there was any blocking though, the shortwave would have no chance to amplify that much and drive north.

Yes with that track, a dying shortwave over ny and a surface reflection south of long island, psuedo miller B type stuff. Good to see the Nam actually jump to the coast, previous runs just had a decaying pos sw floating up the SLRV

[amarshall]

I should take the cover off the boat and put it back in the water.

[dryslot]

Nam actually just made a huge jump towards the 0z gfs with a surface reflection off the sne coast line, that inland vorticity dampens out very quickly.

Its to little to late and we are running out of time on this for here, DE maine may be saved

[Mr Torchey]

This nam run is almost identical to last nights gfs.

Who knows might be too late, but hopefully this trend continues and gives the interior up into central and nne some snow, we are obviously beyond cooked here.

[Logan11]

It's awfully mild at 850.... My next hope for snow would be a few inches from Lake effect Sunday night or Monday I guess.

This nam run is almost identical to last nights gfs.

Who knows might be too late, but hopefully this trend continues and gives the interior up into central and nne some snow, we are obviously beyond cooked here.

[Mr Torchey]

you can get with this, or you can get with that

[TrueBlue]

I will enjoy my waa snow

When and how much

[Typhoon Tip]

What I find disturbing about these recent NAM solutions is, how often do you see a 1028 to 1032 mb polar high transiting E through Ontario while there is warm frontogenesis N of an ALB-BOS latitude? There is something odd about that. In June ... just before a wedding, you would bet on a raging backdoor boner that drills all the way to Myrtle Beach SC given that set up; but in late December, when if snow is on the line and you'd need that polar high to wedge in here, it seems to be defying conventional physics in not getting into the area. It's passing over an Ontario cryosphere to boot, so the low levels should be good and dense and ready to rumble on south. Wow.

One must wonder (sarcasm aside for a moment) if that is an error, and any warm genesis wouldn't take place closer NYC latitudes, or perhaps even central NJ. There "could" (although don't hang any hats during a season clearly guided by metaphysics more than physics...eh hm) be a surprise lurking in there over that time. Could almost see a Saturday afternoon coldish pooling of air over SW ME, and lower NH, where temperatures slip some 3-5F lower than MOS, with light flag wobbling from the NNE, and then this air then gets down into the Rt Poop corridor and Nashoba Valley area. It wouldn't mean much sensibly other than some inconsequential glaze and snow grains given that dodgy QPF layout, BUT... if this next notion up on the old absurdity docket gets accounted for, maybe that is an error too.

Absurdity 2: The better consolidated look to the primary vorticity core then cuts just under LI by .5 to 1 deg of latitude. "Normally", with polar high behaving as said, and a v-max passing just S, lows don't remain so amorphous and moving through central NE. Talk about sticking the cart before the horses! I have never seen a model so hell bent on drilling a 1004 mb low through a 1030mb high in my existence as a Meteorologist and involved with utilizing the technology. That is the 2nd odd-ball looking aspect to these NAM runs; the ECM/GFS for that matter, too, in that they are all displacing the current 25/10 type air mass without any prior deep layer SW trajectories. They just move the air mass, en mass, out, without any advection parameters.. It may also be why that isentropic banding we were discussing yesterday is so non-committal in the runs. No advection, no need for isentropic lift I suppose - convenient. Part of me wants to label that an error perpetrated by some invisible force out to incur a wrath of sadness and sorrow, though naturally I'm nonplussed to see how/why - ha ha.

Seriously, if this all corrected in a little bit more potency that then gets squeezed underneath us, it wouldn't shock me. It just looks like that high is getting bumped out prematurely by the runs and that allows the weak-ish low to punch through too far N. Or not...we'll see how it plays out.

[dendrite]

What I find disturbing about these recent NAM solutions is, how often do you see a 1028 to 1032 mb polar high transiting E through Ontario while there is warm frontogenesis N of an ALB-BOS latitude? There is something odd about that. In June ... just before a wedding, you would bet on a raging backdoor boner that drills all the way to Myrtle Beach SC given that set up; but in late December, when if snow is on the line and you'd need that polar high to wedge in here, it seems to be defying conventional physics in not getting into the area. It's passing over an Ontario cryosphere to boot, so the low levels should be good and dense and ready to rumble on south. Wow.

One must wonder (sarcasm aside for a moment) if that is an error, and any warm genesis wouldn't take place closer NYC latitudes, or perhaps even central NJ. There "could" (although don't hang any hats during a season clearly guided by metaphysics more than physics...eh hm) be a surprise lurking in there over that time. Could almost see a Saturday afternoon coldish pooling of air over SW ME, and lower NH, where temperatures slip some 3-5F lower than MOS, with light flag wobbling from the NNE, and then this air then gets down into the Rt Poop corridor and Nashoba Valley area. It wouldn't mean much sensibly other than some inconsequential glaze and snow grains given that dodgy QPF layout, BUT... if this next notion up on the old absurdity docket gets accounted for, maybe that is an error too.

Well the NAM actually keeps the cold sfc wedge in here the entire time until we mix out and "warm up" with the cold fropa. I keep NE winds the entire time...unfortunately the dammed cold isn't deep/strong enough to prevent H9-H95 from getting skunked to near 4C even at my lat.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html

[Typhoon Tip]

Well the NAM actually keeps the cold sfc wedge in here the entire time until we mix out and "warm up" with the cold fropa. I keep NE winds the entire time...unfortunately the dammed cold isn't deep/strong enough to prevent H9-H95 from getting skunked to near 4C even at my lat.

http://www.meteo.psu...2z/etaloop.html

Yeah, again... have to think outside the box of what these models are actually painting on their chart output(s) I suppose - but then, that can get one into trouble just the same. Ha!

Up where you are I'd feel even more insulted by the NAM solutions. You guys got no business warming up in this so the NAM isn't really after the hearts and frustrations of SNE, it's after someone up there! What the hell did Mahk' do, anyway.. We're caught up in the cross fire here

[Damage In Tolland]

What I find disturbing about these recent NAM solutions is, how often do you see a 1028 to 1032 mb polar high transiting E through Ontario while there is warm frontogenesis N of an ALB-BOS latitude? There is something odd about that. In June ... just before a wedding, you would bet on a raging backdoor boner that drills all the way to Myrtle Beach SC given that set up; but in late December, when if snow is on the line and you'd need that polar high to wedge in here, it seems to be defying conventional physics in not getting into the area. It's passing over an Ontario cryosphere to boot, so the low levels should be good and dense and ready to rumble on south. Wow.

One must wonder (sarcasm aside for a moment) if that is an error, and any warm genesis wouldn't take place closer NYC latitudes, or perhaps even central NJ. There "could" (although don't hang any hats during a season clearly guided by metaphysics more than physics...eh hm) be a surprise lurking in there over that time. Could almost see a Saturday afternoon coldish pooling of air over SW ME, and lower NH, where temperatures slip some 3-5F lower than MOS, with light flag wobbling from the NNE, and then this air then gets down into the Rt Poop corridor and Nashoba Valley area. It wouldn't mean much sensibly other than some inconsequential glaze and snow grains given that dodgy QPF layout, BUT... if this next notion up on the old absurdity docket gets accounted for, maybe that is an error too.

Absurdity 2: The better consolidated look to the primary vorticity core then cuts just under LI by .5 to 1 deg of latitude. "Normally", with polar high behaving as said, and a v-max passing just S, lows don't remain so amorphous and moving through central NE. Talk about sticking the cart before the horses! I have never seen a model so hell bent on drilling a 1004 mb low through a 1030mb high in my existence as a Meteorologist and involved with utilizing the technology. That is the 2nd odd-ball looking aspect to these NAM runs; the ECM/GFS for that matter, too, in that they are all displacing the current 25/10 type air mass without any prior deep layer SW trajectories. They just move the air mass, en mass, out, without any advection parameters.. It may also be why that isentropic banding we were discussing yesterday is so non-committal in the runs. No advection, no need for isentropic lift I suppose - convenient. Part of me wants to label that an error perpetrated by some invisible force out to incur a wrath of sadness and sorrow, though naturally I'm nonplussed to see how/why - ha ha.

Seriously, if this all corrected in a little bit more potency that then gets squeezed underneath us, it wouldn't shock me. It just looks like that high is getting bumped out prematurely by the runs and that allows the weak-ish low to punch through too far N. Or not...we'll see how it plays out.

LOL

[Typhoon Tip]

LOL

No, Kevin ... I'm not talking about your noodle wobbling from the NNE -

honestly. the things that fire off in that head-o yurs

[mahk_webstah]

Yeah, again... have to think outside the box of what these models are actually painting on their chart output(s) I suppose - but then, that can get one into trouble just the same. Ha!

Up where you are I'd feel even more insulted by the NAM solutions. You guys got no business warming up in this so the NAM isn't really after the hearts and frustrations of SNE, it's after someone up there! What the hell did Mahk' do, anyway.. We're caught up in the cross fire here

I been good, I sweah.

And NYE is my fookin bday!

[mahk_webstah]

LOL

favorite Tip phrases?

"flag wobbling from the NNE"

"meridional appeal"

"meridional expression"

"???? excitement"

"teleconnector convergence"

others?

when I hear those phrases I experience my very own longitudinal appeal

edit: add a new one "meridional surging"

[dryslot]

Early on Euro is a tic south at 12z from 0z with the low over the upper ohio valley..

[ORH_wxman]

Early on Euro is a tic south at 12z from 0z with the low over the upper ohio valley..

Torch at 850.

[dryslot]

Torch at 850.

Yeah, Looks like it don't matter, Its warmer as well then 0z

[dryslot]

congrats vim toot!