HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 According to some all we're left with is Powderfreak posting more snow pictures ,and talking about how much more he'll get No one south of the MA/VT/NH border sees more than an inch...even Pete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 According to some all we're left with is Powderfreak posting more snow pictures ,and talking about how much more he'll get That's very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Yeah...2.5" of glop that is completely gone after last night. My point was a couple of days before that event I was on the northern fringe and then I ended up with 2.5" on 0.60" of water equiv. Outside of powderfreak land it's been disappointing for everyone. I guess I just feel as though the word "dissapointing" should be aptly employed within the context of this winter, and I think most would be satisfied having seen a HECS, a white xmass and a 33.7" of snow thus far....though obviously the evoloution of the season has been hardly ideal for anyone. It's all relative, I guess.....I know I haven't been satisifed in the past when the majority felt as though I should have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Looking good for up here. The 12z NAM is a best case scenario for me. I get a bit of CAD ahead of the clipper to keep the BL cool and then the sfc low slips just south of me keeping the cold locked in. Then the burst of +SN moves through here although the NAM keeps the heaviest a little north of me. North of the sfc track there could be a surprise for some people. 12z nam would be the best track for here, .60" qpf decent ratios, High end advisory maybe low end warning event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I guess I just feel as though the word "dissapointing" should be aptly employed within the context of this winter, and I think most would be satisfied having seen a HECS, a white xmass and a 33.7" of snow thus far....though obviously the evoloution of the season has been hardly ideal for anyone. It's all relative, I guess.....I know I haven't been satisifed in the past when the majority felt as though I should have. I think I clearly said disappointing since the pre-Thanksgiving SWFE. Other than a couple tenths here and there it's basically been that 2.5" over the course of 5 weeks. I would call that a disappointing stretch especially with torching temps and mostly no snow cover. Obviously the season as a whole has been OK so far as I'll always have the memories of a Halloween HECS, but I've never seen almost 20" of snow melt so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I think I clearly said disappointing since the pre-Thanksgiving SWFE. Other than a couple tenths here and there it's basically been that 2.5" over the course of 5 weeks. I would call that a disappointing stretch especially with torching temps and mostly no snow cover. Obviously the season as a whole has been OK so far as I'll always have the memories of a Halloween HECS, but I've never seen almost 20" of snow melt so quickly. That you did.....my fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 One thing I'm noticing is that this low transits N of the 540dm thickness contour. This is not the type of low where all the QPF is painted on the warm side of 850 and we're looking for needle thread results. Also, preceding this (eastern GL-NE region) there is a weak/moderate polar high anchored in eastern Ontario that "should" load chillier llv partial thickness below the 850mb - synoptically the whole arrangement has that sort of appeal to me. That would likely mean pocketed zr, albeit light after perhaps some overrunning lighter snow from roughtly ALB-BOS. Stripe of light overrunning snow for central New England. If that high were not up there, than limited BL resistance would mean mixing out any preceding cold thickness much faster. That may still be the case for CT/RI though. Edit, I should be clear that I am speaking just in deference to the operational GGEM/GFS type blend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Euro says most in SNE will see mid 40s Friday with fropa (weak) Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Congrats NNE on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Euro looks crappy again like last night...its a weak low with not much precip and its pretty warm...even CNE is probably too warm for snow. Worst case scenario with both weak/light precip and marginal temps...that won't get it done. Hopefully it looks better for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Dripping sculptures while the torch stages a last stand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 nothing to see here...move along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Euro says most in SNE will see mid 40s Friday with fropa (weak) Saturday. Triple or nothing and we pick a date in January? If you win you get three meals if I win a weekend in Vegas? At least it will be cold like winter soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Euro does not look bad for NNE, Snow saturday here, Close to .50" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Euro looks crappy again like last night...its a weak low with not much precip and its pretty warm...even CNE is probably too warm for snow. Worst case scenario with both weak/light precip and marginal temps...that won't get it done. Hopefully it looks better for next week. Wait a sec, how is that possible? I'm looking at the hour 48 panel and it has 100 mile wide stripe of saturable RH at both 700 and 850mb levels, with 850mb temperature of -3 to -5C across the area. You guys are rushing to the negative conclusion at least excuse imaginable without considering anything positive here. Sorry, it just comes across that way. I may be wrong, sure ... but that above would seem to imply that at least an interval of steady snow may precede much of that doomy vibe being painted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Wait a sec, how is that possible? I'm looking at the hour 48 panel and it has 100 mile wide stripe of saturable RH at both 700 and 850mb levels, with 850mb temperature of -3 to -5C across the area. You guys are rushing to the negative conclusion at least excuse imaginable without considering anything positive here. Sorry, it just comes across that way. I may be wrong, sure ... but that above would seem to imply that at least an interval of steady snow may precede much of that doomy vibe being painted. Tip the BL is torched 40 s just like our Windex day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Tip the BL is torched 40 s just like our Windex day. Looks good at 5h though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Wait a sec, how is that possible? I'm looking at the hour 48 panel and it has 100 mile wide stripe of saturable RH at both 700 and 850mb levels, with 850mb temperature of -3 to -5C across the area. You guys are rushing to the negative conclusion at least excuse imaginable without considering anything positive here. Sorry, it just comes across that way. I may be wrong, sure ... but that above would seem to imply that at least an interval of steady snow may precede much of that doomy vibe being painted. Its 66-72h that is the problem. We might get some weak overrunning light snow before that, but it wouldn't amount to much I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Euro does not look bad for NNE, Snow saturday here, Close to .50" qpf Looks like you got issues around 72-78h...that mid-level warm punch gets well into Maine. Hopefully you cash in though...someone needs to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Its 66-72h that is the problem. We might get some weak overrunning light snow before that, but it wouldn't amount to much I don't think. Yeah, those later frames look bleek - okay. But, it snows on this run at 48-60 hours - Folks, why not focus on THAT instead. Beside, the Euro is not infallable - it could also be eroding the llv polar air slightly fast. That could easily be corrected into shallow inversion with ice in the interior. That scenario is just as plausible for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Euro looks nice 1/2 and later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Yeah, those later frames look bleek - okay. But, it snows on this run at 48-60 hours - Folks, why not focus on THAT instead. Beside, the Euro is not infallable - it could also be eroding the llv polar air slightly fast. That could easily be corrected into shallow inversion with ice in the interior. That scenario is just as plausible for the time being. There is a snow weenie hidden beneath the gruff exterior jk It is late Dec/early Jan... not impossible for it to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Euro is mighty cold after the weekend crud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 LOL...we're reduced to infighting amongst mets at this point. All that's missing is a Forky troll post about the SE ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 This is classic +PNA/+AO cold loading beyond 96 hours on this operational ECM run. Notice the -20C, 850mb temperature barely grazes Lake Superior, yet the pressure pattern synoptic evolution looks like the 2nd coming of the Younger Dryaz interglacial cooling event! Man, if only a -AO lead this PNA spike; then we'd really be crippling the citrus crops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Euro is mighty cold after the weekend crud As cold as the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Yeah, those later frames look bleek - okay. But, it snows on this run at 48-60 hours - Folks, why not focus on THAT instead. Beside, the Euro is not infallable - it could also be eroding the llv polar air slightly fast. That could easily be corrected into shallow inversion with ice in the interior. That scenario is just as plausible for the time being. Tip there is no precip from 48-60 , any snow that falls verbatim is at hour 66 on and that's north of a Portland Pittsfield line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Tip there is no precip from 48-60 , any snow that falls verbatim is at hour 66 on and that's north of a Portland Pittsfield line. There's no precip modeled but I could envision a weak stripe of flurries like the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 LOL...we're reduced to infighting amongst mets at this point. All that's missing is a Forky troll post about the SE ridge Nah, Will's a talented Met... I think the statement is directed toward the collective - people really are opening these modeling products and are biasing immediately to the most plausible negative interpretation. Look, folks want it to snow before even weather... haha. I finally get that! So, stop looking for when it gets warm and rainy, and focus on your damn snow. If it is snowing 52 hours from now, there's an inch on the ground, and nice dendrite aggregates at 33F, you mean to tell me it doesn't count because it's going to be 40F and drizzly 12 hours later? That's ...insane. really - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Pretty sad state of affairs when Maine is not bulletproof around Jan 1. Euro sounds almost identical to the gfs, so all models agree that its wet over sne this weekend. Berkshire cabin cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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