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New Year's Eve Threat


ski MRG

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I saw it. That was a small pond and it looked marginal at best.. Quabbin can't be iced over right now as are none of the large ponds/lakes. You'd be betting your life right now heading out to attempt ice fishing. I'd take a dingy. I don't disagree that it will be better this time next week.

It was a cove on Buckley-Dunton Reservoir. It's A decent size and iced over. You can't tell how thick ice is by looking at it in a pic.
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NAM certainly getting closer..Went from a cutter to over SNE now.. What an awful model.

Normally we can get the interior to snow with south winds, but the airmass just before the low is sort of torched. That's why I was saying the euro and even the gfs sucked. It's warm right to 850mb..especially for you. If it goes underneath, you can get some. This event doesn't really excite me at all, but hopefully for your sake..it moves south. Just prepare if it doesn't..lol.

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It was a cove on Buckley-Dunton Reservoir. It's A decent size and iced over. You can't tell how thick ice is by looking at it in a pic.

Cool. Maybe you can sneak out an inch or two this weekend.

NAM spits out 0.65" for IZG. Solid event up there. WIll make the ski resorts rejoice.

The WAA ahead of this system will make the BL hostile for a lot of the event for us, unless we can get this trough to sharpen and close off faster.

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Normally we can get the interior to snow with south winds, but the airmass just before the low is sort of torched. That's why I was saying the euro and even the gfs sucked. It's warm right to 850mb..especially for you. If it goes underneath, you can get some. This event doesn't really excite me at all, but hopefully for your sake..it moves south. Just prepare if it doesn't..lol.

This is one of those winters where it just doesn't want to snow. Some yrs we can get it to snow by pissing off the deck..but this is not one of those yrs.
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Sweet, Pete. Enjoy as every flake that falls is one less drop of rain, lol. That's how I'm looking at it now.

I honestly am afraid to say what its doing outside my window right now for fear of a lynch mob.

Heck no, totally stoked, sitting having coffee and looking at ski country webcams brings me happiness!!!

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This is one of those winters where it just doesn't want to snow. Some yrs we can get it to snow by pissing off the deck..but this is not one of those yrs.

Thus far every event has been preceded by a crappy antecedent airmass. The Oct event was an anomaly that I won't put in this list. Makes it very difficult.

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Normally we can get the interior to snow with south winds, but the airmass just before the low is sort of torched. That's why I was saying the euro and even the gfs sucked. It's warm right to 850mb..especially for you. If it goes underneath, you can get some. This event doesn't really excite me at all, but hopefully for your sake..it moves south. Just prepare if it doesn't..lol.

Last night I was reading through the October snow obs from Halloween and man the mood in those threads was unbelievable. It was like 250 people winning the lottery at the same time and all being on the same internet forum at the same time. That storm was still so unbelievable. Go back and look through that Oct Pictures thread... wow, still blows my mind.

Now would anyone trade that storm so instead of 12-20" then, you would be racking up several 3-6" events right now? I sure wouldn't. That storm was sick.

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Last night I was reading through the October snow obs from Halloween and man the mood in those threads was unbelievable. It was like 250 people winning the lottery at the same time and all being on the same internet forum at the same time. That storm was still so unbelievable. Go back and look through that Oct Pictures thread... wow, still blows my mind.

Now would anyone trade that storm so instead of 12-20" then, you would be racking up several 3-6" events right now? I sure wouldn't. That storm was sick.

Truly, but the snow was gone in a week or so...

It was an amazing event, one we will probably never see again in our lifetimes, so that makes it worth it.

To get more snow in October than November and December, and perhaps even January combined is incredible

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I saw it. That was a small pond and it looked marginal at best.. Quabbin can't be iced over right now as are none of the large ponds/lakes. You'd be betting your life right now heading out to attempt ice fishing. I'd take a dingy. I don't disagree that it will be better this time next week.

Yeah, there is essentially little if any safe ice in New England right now. I was just checking the forum over at iceshanty.com and people are somber.

Not an inspiring animation:

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/loop/usa-1mo-loop.html

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This is one of those winters where it just doesn't want to snow. Some yrs we can get it to snow by pissing off the deck..but this is not one of those yrs.

SSTs are absolutely killing us, any fart of onshore and we skyrocket, we need a week of wholesale screaming NW winds with surface temps in the 30s

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I don't know how much that matters the farther inland you go..maybe it does I don't know

Well give it another 24 hrs for the NYE light snow. We may get some late Thursday night ahead of the mid level waa. It still could wiggle south I suppose, but it needs a little work.

LOL, I'll try not to be negative.

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Well give it another 24 hrs for the NYE light snow. We may get some late Thursday night ahead of the mid level waa. It still could wiggle south I suppose, but it needs a little work.

LOL, I'll try not to be negative.

Do the above normal SST's matter once you get this far inland? I mean in a strong storm i could see it factoring in..but for a weak system with weak south flow..does it make a difference away from the water by more than 20 miles?

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Do the above normal SST's matter once you get this far inland? I mean in a strong storm i could see it factoring in..but for a weak system with weak south flow..does it make a difference away from the water by more than 20 miles?

in a marginal air mass yes, if you are entrenched in cold no. But a general flow for hours is going to taint the BL

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Do the above normal SST's matter once you get this far inland? I mean in a strong storm i could see it factoring in..but for a weak system with weak south flow..does it make a difference away from the water by more than 20 miles?

Well if the source region is warm and winds are south..it might matter by a couple of degrees or so. I don't really see that as the issue per se, I think the issue is that the airmass ahead of it is kind of crappy. The preceding low and associated warm front, warms the mid levels. If that wasn't there, we would have more widespread light snow.

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Sweet, Pete. Enjoy as every flake that falls is one less drop of rain, lol. That's how I'm looking at it now.

I honestly am afraid to say what its doing outside my window right now for fear of a lynch mob.

It's nice to have snow falling. Should be in your neck of the woods next week.
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If you look at the 09z ETA that Bob talked about you'll see what I mean. The s/w and low pressure slide underneath us. It's still marginal maybe near Kevin, but would probably be a nice light snow event for the higher interior.

http://www.meteo.psu...2z/etaloop.html

I miss the days of being able to use that and relying heavily on it

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Normally we can get the interior to snow with south winds, but the airmass just before the low is sort of torched. That's why I was saying the euro and even the gfs sucked. It's warm right to 850mb..especially for you. If it goes underneath, you can get some. This event doesn't really excite me at all, but hopefully for your sake..it moves south. Just prepare if it doesn't..lol.

Normally we can get snow in just about every manner that we haven't this season.

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I miss the days of being able to use that and relying heavily on it

It had its moments. The NAM is ok in short fused situations, but sometimes hi-res models can get carried away out in time. It probably really should only be run only to 48hrs out.

On my way out, hopefully the low comes south.

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