dryslot Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 It's time to do the unthinkable and put all eggs in GFS basket which gives us a couple inches I saved this for later.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Nice to still have the Euro ens and GEFS all giving us a coupe inches of snow on NYE. If 12z continues the theme I think we can start making some final calls LOL...honest question...did you say this just to say it or did you not look at anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 could be quite the cold shot early next week with that ridge bumping into the arctic...we'll see if it holds or gets muted as we get closer...but certainly could be a chilly stretch tue-thur of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 You definitely do not want this to track overhead, even if the 540 line is just south of you. The only way that works, is if the boundary layer is very cold. In that case you can snow with south winds, as you'll have good isentropic lift over the cold air. In this case, I think the boundary layer is pretty mild, so any snow will probably occur if the storm goes south by 50 miles or so. GFS and Euro are pretty much fails for SNE. The only way that changes, is if the low moves south. Just hope it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 LOL...honest question...did you say this just to say it or did you not look at anything? LOL, I always laugh when he posts that, because he probably just came in from jogging, plum smuggling spandex still on..and posted that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 There is a shot on the 30th, of maybe some weak overrunning right now, but any snow would be very light I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 There is a shot on the 30th, of maybe some weak overrunning right now, but any snow would be very light I think. yeah i think that's the better shot...even if it's just flurries or some brief light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 yeah i think that's the better shot...even if it's just flurries or some brief light snow. yeah looks like late Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 he meant Montana Just because you live on the coastal plain doesn't give you the right to lash out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Just because you live on the coastal plain doesn't give you the right to lash out. A coworker and friend of mine, who lives south and east of me, lives 200' higher than you (well maybe 150') Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Phil hates this threat for any snow despite the GFS/GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Phil hates this threat for any snow despite the GFS/GEFS It looks kind of bad right now to be honest. Maybe it trends south.But, if you are only hoping for an inch or so..I guess there isn't much to lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 It looks kind of bad right now to be honest. Maybe it trends south.But, if you are only hoping for an inch or so..I guess there isn't much to lose. As long as Will feels like there's a decent shot and the 00z GFS had an inch or 2..it's all we can hope for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 As long as Will feels like there's a decent shot and the 00z GFS had an inch or 2..it's all we can hope for Well there is always a shot 84 hrs out..it's not impossible, but it's so marginal right now..it just looks kind of ugly, but 50 miles south would give you an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I hate being negative..it's not in my blood, but this winter has brought the demon out. It's tough to find a shred of good news with every storm. The last one I could do that for, was the October snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Well there is always a shot 84 hrs out..it's not impossible, but it's so marginal right now..it just looks kind of ugly, but 50 miles south would give you an inch or two. Is there anything other than confluence that would force it south? I don;t see much that would offer that hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 As long as Will feels like there's a decent shot and the 00z GFS had an inch or 2..it's all we can hope for but it didn't. The BL is torched. it's just some light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 but it didn't. The BL is torched. it's just some light rain. Then I guess Will was wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Is there anything other than confluence that would force it south? I don;t see much that would offer that hope Well the s/w in question could dig a little further south and help that out. If that s/w can dig further south, low pressure would develop quicker and you pinch off the warming aloft. Hopefully that happens...it's just so so right now, but I guess I wouldn't rule it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Another non event disastah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Good to see the 2011 WAGONS NORTH TOUR in full swing, its beyond comical and next week was always a pipe dream. The thought of 3 days with cold and dry conditions is enough to make my skin peel. For the love of God, please let it torch, there is NOTHING worse than cold and dry with no snow and no pond hockey. There is no pattern change, and there will not be one. Spring cant get here soon enough the is beyond painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Then I guess Will was wrong not necessarily in his backyard...verbatim it's probably marginally cold N of the pike. for most though...it's warm. it just is. i wish it were cold, snowy etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Then I guess Will was wrong No I don't think he is...I think he was saying it could offer 1-2" for his area..which is wasn't far from doing. It's just warm in the lower levels, even taking into account a slight bias for that. Just hope it moves south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 No I don't think he is...I think he was saying it could offer 1-2" for his area..which is wasn't far from doing. It's just warm in the lower levels, even taking into account a slight bias for that. Just hope it moves south. When people say interior I always take it to mean all of interior Sne..not just north of the pike which is the distant interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 When people say interior I always take it to mean all of interior Sne..not just north of the pike which is the distant interior Interior is a very broad term imo. It usually means you as well, but there are instances where it may mean otherwise. Just hope it moves south. If that happens, you can get an inch or two. My gut says this may be a stinker, but I wouldn't rule out something like the euro had yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Then I guess Will was wrong by-the-way...i hate when you do that. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 by-the-way...i hate when you do that. LOL. Looking forward to my light snsh tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 by-the-way...i hate when you do that. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 When people say interior I always take it to mean all of interior Sne..not just north of the pike which is the distant interior Dude, it is rain. Your wishing and hoping and hanging onto the ankle of any model that gives you a dusting has worn thin. Deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 That should be called the Sandusky icon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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