Mikehobbyst Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Incrdible wind potential with a high wind warning event possible for LI and coastal SE CT. Looks like A SHORT DURATION wind damage event as SSE winds dramatically increase from 20-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph around 7:00 to 40-55 mph with gusts to 60-65 mph from around midnight to 2 AM Wed morning. Wednesday morning looks like WNW winds at 30-40 with gusts to 55 mph till about 2PM with rapid diminishing by evening. I would think that 80-90 knot 925 to 850 mb winds is a red flag for wind damage. This is finally our October and November damaging CFRB event that will be the start of a dramatic pattern change over the next 2-3 weeks. I think this is the first sign of that change beginning. It means better phasing is starting to happen and the northern stream is starting to show more life and less interference with all that persisting SE ridge making everything too weak. We're going to be shoveling soon and it could surprise us in about 10-14 days of becoming a viable pattern too for something large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Incrdible wind potential with a high wind warning event possible for LI and coastal SE CT. Looks like A SHORT DURATION wind damage event as SSE winds dramatically increase from 20-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph around 7:00 to 40-55 mph with gusts to 60-65 mph from around midnight to 2 AM Wed morning. Wednesday morning looks like WNW winds at 30-40 with gusts to 55 mph till about 2PM with rapid diminishing by evening. I would think that 80-90 knot 925 to 850 mb winds is a red flag for wind damage. This is finally our October and November damaging CFRB event that will be the start of a dramatic pattern change over the next 2-3 weeks. I think this is the first sign of that change beginning. It means better phasing is starting to happen and the northern stream is starting to show more life and less interference with all that persisting SE ridge making everything too weak. We're going to be shoveling soon and it could surprise us in about 10-14 days of becoming a viable pattern too for something large. Awesome write up, I'm following this wind event as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Incrdible wind potential with a high wind warning event possible for LI and coastal SE CT. Looks like A SHORT DURATION wind damage event as SSE winds dramatically increase from 20-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph around 7:00 to 40-55 mph with gusts to 60-65 mph from around midnight to 2 AM Wed morning. Wednesday morning looks like WNW winds at 30-40 with gusts to 55 mph till about 2PM with rapid diminishing by evening. I would think that 80-90 knot 925 to 850 mb winds is a red flag for wind damage. This is finally our October and November damaging CFRB event that will be the start of a dramatic pattern change over the next 2-3 weeks. I think this is the first sign of that change beginning. It means better phasing is starting to happen and the northern stream is starting to show more life and less interference with all that persisting SE ridge making everything too weak. We're going to be shoveling soon and it could surprise us in about 10-14 days of becoming a viable pattern too for something large. Gusts up to 55 mph on Wednesday is a bit too high in my opinion, I'd go with 40 mph gusts in general, but the short time frame on Tuesday night when the LLJ moves through is when the potential for the strongest winds exists. These events can surprise, just as 12/8 did, but gusts near or over 50 mph, especially in Long Island, are very possible on Tuesday night along with heavy rain and some thunderstorms, with a slightly lower gust potential in NYC (I'd say about 40-50 mph?). The timing could also be shifted earlier, as the models are showing the storm ending earlier than most forecasts as typically seems to happen, with the rain already ending in NYC on the NAM by 10 PM/3z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Awesome write up! I agree that things are going to change for the better throughout january. but to what extent and if it will indeed produce something large for the northeast as far as a snowstorm is yet to be seen. Recently we've been seeing some glimmers of hope on the global models hinting at a more "favorable" pattern developing but were gonna have to be patient and see what transpires. I want to see some snow this year but with the hole were in as far as the current pattern we need a fairly signifigant change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 ECMWF is coming in with a LLJ not quite as strong and displaced slightly to the southeast, so this is not a total lock just yet. That said, I think gusts 45-50 mph will probably widespread enough to merit a wind advisory for Long Island and maybe NYC/coastal CT. Rumbles of thunder look like a good bet too with the strong ascent and moist adiabatic lapse rates aloft. If the NAM stronger LLJ verifies I'd expect heavier rain bands to drag down the higher momentum, with a few SVR's thrown in for good measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 you can see the low level jet nicely on the 00z nam. 900mb winds are in excess of 70kts just off the coast. forecasting soundings show the potential for 30-40kt winds at 10m. i would think we should see gusts over 40mph at times in some locations, but it remains to be seen just how widespread this event will be. that is a very dynamic shortwave for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Impressive wind gusts over the Gulf of Mexico now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 It's looking like a 0z-3z passage of the low topped convective line across the area this evening. The best chance at seeing wind gusts in excess of 50 mph will be from the eastern parts of NYC Coastal NJ out across Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Following the potential for damaging wind gusts tonight over at WeatherWorks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Euro wind maps off wunderground have 30-40 knot winds for Eastern LI. 20-30 knot winds for the rest of LI and 15-25 knot winds for NYC. Not sure if these are sustained or gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The NAM still has 30+kt winds at 10m. I would think the best potential, as bluewave argued, would be east of the city and maybe along the immediate New Jersey coast. The low level jet definitely is barely offshore this time around -- and the convection that is forecast to develop could mix down some of the strong winds just off the deck. It will be interesting to see the development of the area of heavy rain that the SPC WRF was forecasting at 12z -- which it has oriented from NW to SE in a line, pretty much on the nose of the best forcing. Convection could be a wild card in any wind gusts as well (As usual). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 So today is looking pretty miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Very strong winds 1,000 ft. above the surface shown on the KMHX VWP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Is there supposed to be anything behind this line? Because it's so far looking like a rather disorganized line of moderate-heavy rain already moving through by 7 PM. It's probably going to get windier in the evening, but I'm not so sure that wind gusts end up over 50 mph with this one unless more convection forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I think most of the models cut the precip off after 7 or 8pm. Is there supposed to be anything behind this line? Because it's so far looking like a rather disorganized line of moderate-heavy rain already moving through by 7 PM. It's probably going to get windier in the evening, but I'm not so sure that wind gusts end up over 50 mph with this one unless more convection forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 nice little line setting up down in VA into MD.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Temps shooting up into the mid 50s now after being in the 40s most of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 nice little line setting up down in VA into MD.... Any wind reports with that line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 JFK gusting to 37mph. LGA gusting to 40mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 My apartment is shaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Gusted to 34 & 35 MPH at my parent's house in the past hour: http://www.findu.com/cgi-bin/wxpage.cgi?call=CW0028 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Nice line in the DelMarVa moving into the Ches... Bay http://www.intellicast.com/national/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USVA0731&animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The 4 km NAM is doing a beautiful job picking out the second line coming in behind the first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 That fine line of convection could mix down some of the more serious winds as it moves east. It will be interesting to see if it can build farther north towards our area, or if it will just exit off the coast of Central New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Been getting estimated gusts here at the shore of 40-50 mph over the last 30 minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Winds picking up in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Getting 30-40 MPH gusts here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 LGA gusting to 45 and JFK 43 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Winds have cranked up here with passage of the 1st smaller squall line. Gusts Probably 45 - 50mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 winds are really picking up here in western suffolk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.