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December 26-27 Potential Snow Event

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

I still like 2-4" all things considered, but if the enhanced banding sets up per some hi-res models then we can't rule out some isolated higher totals for someone.

Sticking with your guns, nice. Hope it pans out.

I considered coming back tonight, but I guess I'm not desperate enough yet. :D

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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Maybe I'm :deadhorse: , but in this case I might have to disagree with you and Hoosier. My point forecast calls for a low 31 tonight and a high 36 tomorrow.

So even if temps stay at around freezing during the event, as soon as it quits, solar effects will take over and quickly create melting/compaction. What might technically be a 4" snowfall may quickly turn into 2" of snow remaining. This may not be true for areas farther east and north, but the heavier precip is expected to end by early afternoon in this area, giving time for the sun to do it's dirty work.

The other factor is climo would dictate snow falling on frozen ground, but unfortunately, that is not the case this year.

I'm not sure why you included me in there.  I have been saying that melting/settling could start occurring basically as the event winds down. I do put less emphasis on the sun at this time of year but with high temps expected to rise well above freezing after the event ends, it doesn't matter how weak the sun is. Melting will happen.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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Sticking with your guns, nice. Hope it pans out.

I considered coming back tonight, but I guess I'm not desperate enough yet. :D

It's a marginal setup for sure but I'm counting on precip rates being good enough to keep things as snow (other than the probable start as rain). Obviously if we have trouble staying snow then I'll be too high.

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Organizing Low

Organizing Low

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Posted

The high will be in the morning and temps will drop slowly in the afternoon. There's a chance that we start out as a bit of rain, and there's a better chance that when we switch to snow, it has trouble sticking for the first couple of hours. But if the 12z NAM/GFS are correct, we should get a period during the evening when the snow rips for a while. Very favourable location of the 850/700mb low. I'd say 2-3" is a good call for us.

It's just too bad the low is still developing/moving so fast while it's crossing our latitude. By the time it gets up to Ottawa, it'll be quite the show.

Subzero just posted a SWS from env canada in the upstate forum, and EC is banging the flash freeze drum! its looking better for you guys, :)

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

I'm not sure why you included me in there. I have been saying that melting/settling could start occurring basically as the event winds down. I do put less emphasis on the sun at this time of year but with high temps expected to rise well above freezing after the event ends, it doesn't matter how weak the sun is. Melting will happen.

It's a marginal setup for sure but I'm counting on precip rates being good enough to keep things as snow (other than the probable start as rain). Obviously if we have trouble staying snow then I'll be too high.

Sorry Hoosier, that was probably unfair. I thought I remembered you playing down the sun angle aspect in an earlier post, which is correct. The problem is we will already have marginal temps, and any diurnal rise, especially as the snow is ending, could hurt snow depth. For example, using conventional snow depth measuring techniques, a depth reading at a particular location may be 4" at 1 PM, but by 7 PM, it could only be 2".

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Jonger

Jonger

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We don't quite have the moisture that the Nov 29th event featured, but GRR was calling for 1-3 inches prior to the event and 6-12 verified.

If the call for 2-4 is mainly because of moisture, then fine. If the call is because of temps... I don't buy that.

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Powerball

Powerball

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We don't quite have the moisture that the Nov 29th event featured, but GRR was calling for 1-3 inches prior to the event and 6-12 verified.

If the call for 2-4 is mainly because of moisture, then fine. If the call is because of temps... I don't buy that.

IWXwx has it exactly right. With already marginal temps in place, any daytime heating will only add insult to injury, namely to boundary layer temperatures.

That said, if we can get huge snowflakes falling at a rate of 1-2" per hour with a very cold and closed off upper level low, then of course it will overcome the warm grounds no problem and add up nicely in a short amount of time. However, if we're talking about fine flakes falling at a light to at best moderate rate, then forget about it. December 5th was/is a perfect example. The flakes were tiny and the snowfall rates were relatively light, thus any accumulation despite the snow falling for over 6 hours was mostly on grassy surfaces and it melted completely by the next day.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted

12z ECMWF...

STL:

TUE 00Z 27-DEC   2.7	 3.5	1018	  74	  98	0.03	 562	 548  
TUE 06Z 27-DEC   0.7	-0.9	1013	  99	  91	0.43	 555	 544  
TUE 12Z 27-DEC   0.7	-0.4	1009	  96	  61	0.04	 546	 539  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   5.4	-5.2	1012	  69	  46	0.01	 541	 531  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   3.8	-5.3	1017	  68	  18	0.01	 550	 536

DEC:

TUE 00Z 27-DEC   2.2	 5.8	1018	  71	  92	0.01	 563	 548  
TUE 06Z 27-DEC   0.6	-0.6	1013	  96	  93	0.14	 555	 544  
TUE 12Z 27-DEC   0.4	-1.9	1007	  99	  86	0.18	 545	 539  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   3.0	-4.1	1008	  79	  48	0.00	 539	 532  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   2.5	-7.4	1015	  66	  24	0.01	 544	 532

PAH:

TUE 00Z 27-DEC   4.4	 6.0	1018	  92	  99	0.09	 567	 552  
TUE 06Z 27-DEC   4.4	 2.0	1012	  99	  97	0.58	 558	 549  
TUE 12Z 27-DEC   2.3	-2.3	1009	  99	  99	0.15	 547	 540  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   6.3	-2.1	1011	  70	  42	0.13	 544	 535  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   5.6	-5.0	1016	  65	  32	0.01	 547	 534

IND:

 
TUE 06Z 27-DEC   2.7	 1.3    1014	  80	 100    0.03	 558	 547   
TUE 12Z 27-DEC   0.9    -2.6    1007	  99	  98    0.36	 548	 543   
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   0.9    -3.0    1004	  97	  87    0.19	 539	 536   
WED 00Z 28-DEC   2.1    -5.4    1010	  85	  67    0.02	 538	 530   
WED 06Z 28-DEC  -0.8    -6.9    1018	  81	  10    0.02	 546	 532

LAF:

TUE 06Z 27-DEC   1.6	 0.7	1014	  93	 100	0.05	 556	 545  
TUE 12Z 27-DEC   0.6	-3.3	1007	  99	  98	0.40	 546	 541  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   1.8	-2.4	1004	  87	  62	0.11	 538	 535  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   2.4	-5.8	1011	  83	  44	0.01	 538	 529  
WED 06Z 28-DEC  -3.6	-5.3	1018	  73	   7	0.01	 546	 532

VPZ:

TUE 12Z 27-DEC   0.9	-2.3	1006	  94	 100	0.07	 544	 539  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   3.6	-3.4	1004	  71	  62	0.01	 537	 534  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   1.5	-7.9	1011	  76	  30	0.02	 536	 528  
WED 06Z 28-DEC  -1.9	-7.7	1018	  62	   8	0.01	 544	 530

OKK:

TUE 06Z 27-DEC   3.4	 1.3	1014	  70	 100	0.01	 556	 545  
TUE 12Z 27-DEC   0.6	-3.4	1007	  99	  98	0.42	 547	 542  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   0.7	-3.1	1003	  97	  85	0.17	 538	 536  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   1.7	-5.9	1009	  88	  63	0.01	 537	 530

FWA:

TUE 12Z 27-DEC   0.6	-2.8	1007	  99	  97	0.37	 548	 542  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   0.7	-3.7	1002	  99	  99	0.20	 538	 536  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   1.5	-4.7	1006	  86	  80	0.05	 536	 531

HAO:

TUE 12Z 27-DEC   2.1	-0.3	1007	  98	  97	0.38	 552	 546  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   2.9	-3.0	1002	  96	  98	0.13	 540	 538  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   1.7	-5.6	1008	  91	  95	0.10	 538	 532  
WED 06Z 28-DEC   0.0	-6.0	1015	  75	   7	0.01	 543	 531

DAY:

TUE 12Z 27-DEC   1.4	-0.7	1007	  99	  97	0.31	 551	 545  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   2.2	-3.2	1002	  97	  97	0.15	 540	 538  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   1.0	-5.7	1007	  93	  89	0.11	 537	 532  
WED 06Z 28-DEC  -1.5	-6.2	1014	  81	   7	0.01	 541	 530

CMH:

TUE 12Z 27-DEC   1.7	-0.8	1009	  96	 100	0.15	 553	 547  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   3.3	-1.7	1001	  96	  97	0.28	 542	 541  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   1.1	-5.2	1004	  95	  97	0.20	 537	 533  
WED 06Z 28-DEC  -0.4	-6.7	1011	  84	  41	0.03	 537	 528

TDZ:

TUE 12Z 27-DEC   1.1	-2.2	1008	  96	 100	0.14	 549	 542  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   0.8	-3.8	1001	  99	 100	0.27	 539	 538  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   1.3	-5.4	1003	  94	  89	0.11	 535	 532  
WED 06Z 28-DEC  -3.4	-6.9	1011	  75	   9	0.01	 534	 525

CLE:

TUE 12Z 27-DEC   2.4	-0.5	1009	  72	  99	0.02	 552	 545  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   1.6	-2.5	1001	  95	  97	0.32	 542	 541  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   1.0	-4.8	1001	  97	  98	0.13	 535	 534  
WED 06Z 28-DEC  -0.6	-7.2	1008	  82	  99	0.08	 532	 525  
WED 12Z 28-DEC  -4.5   -13.9	1016	  73	   6	0.02	 537	 525

BTL:

TUE 12Z 27-DEC   1.1	-2.2	1006	  93	  99	0.09	 545	 540  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   2.3	-4.0	1002	  85	  78	0.15	 537	 535  
WED 00Z 28-DEC  -0.3	-6.2	1007	  77	  74	0.01	 533	 528

ADG:

TUE 12Z 27-DEC   0.8	-1.8	1007	  97	  99	0.15	 547	 541  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   0.7	-4.3	1001	  98	  99	0.28	 538	 537  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   1.7	-5.7	1003	  88	  88	0.11	 534	 531

DTW:

TUE 12Z 27-DEC   1.3	-1.5	1008	  91	  99	0.06	 547	 541  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   0.8	-4.2	1001	  98	  98	0.32	 539	 538  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   1.4	-5.4	1002	  93	  90	0.11	 534	 532  
WED 06Z 28-DEC  -4.4	-7.8	1010	  75	   8	0.01	 532	 524

PHN:

TUE 12Z 27-DEC   1.7	-0.5	1008	  81	 100	0.01	 547	 541  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   0.9	-4.1	1002	  98	  99	0.27	 539	 538  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   1.1	-5.3	1001	  94	  96	0.12	 533	 532  
WED 06Z 28-DEC  -3.6	-8.9	1008	  77	  27	0.03	 529	 522

YKF:

TUE 18Z 27-DEC   0.4	-2.5	1002	  96	  97	0.19	 541	 539  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   0.1	-4.8	 999	  99	  98	0.14	 533	 535  
WED 06Z 28-DEC  -0.5	-6.0	1001	  89	  97	0.07	 528	 528  
WED 12Z 28-DEC -10.2   -11.7	1010	  78	  17	0.01	 527	 519

YYZ:

TUE 18Z 27-DEC   1.1	-2.2	1003	  96	  98	0.14	 542	 539  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   0.6	-4.6	 998	  99	  98	0.15	 534	 535  
WED 06Z 28-DEC   1.3	-5.7	 999	  89	  98	0.10	 528	 529  
WED 12Z 28-DEC  -7.9   -11.1	1008	  74	  84	0.02	 524	 518

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

Euro is pretty brutal for IND and the NAM wasn't too good either.

Fixed below after Joe's oops. But the last part still kinda applies.

43º...ha ha. Still, it's after the precip has ended, but yikes. And with a storm that is going south of them. Hate wasting good tracks...

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