Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 12z NAM looks a tick warmer for LAF, compared to 0z, but QPF increased. Going to be a nail biter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Temps aren't marginal because time of day... They are marginal because there is a lack of cold air to be found with this system like every other system this year... Go back and look at all my post for this storm. Ive been screaming Marginal temps from the start and temps being above freezing during the day versus night does put a dent in accumulation. Its common sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Go back and look at all my post for this storm. Ive been screaming Marginal temps from the start and temps being above freezing during the day versus night does put a dent in accumulation. Its common sense. We are talking a degree or so above freezing which would be that way even if it was day or night, that is my point... daytime is a negligible factor in December especially with a deep cloud layer and good precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 12z NAM looks a tick warmer for LAF, compared to 0z, but QPF increased. Going to be a nail biter. I roll back into town tonight so I'm glad it's holding off until midnight or so. NAM at face value is over my first call but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I'm really not seeing it with this one for the central Ohio area. I think it could be a case where it snows all day but melts on contact, and then as the storm pulls away we get a coating to at most an inch of wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I roll back into town tonight so I'm glad it's holding off until midnight or so. NAM at face value is over my first call but we'll see. I think your first call is still good...1-3" is probably the best range for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 We are talking a degree or so above freezing which would be that way even if it was day or night, that is my point... daytime is a negligible factor in December especially with a deep cloud layer and good precip rates. In a more normal Dec sure... not this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 EC has a special weather statement up for all of Southern ON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 In a more normal Dec sure... not this one That makes no sense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 We are talking a degree or so above freezing which would be that way even if it was day or night, that is my point... daytime is a negligible factor in December especially with a deep cloud layer and good precip rates. Maybe I'm , but in this case I might have to disagree with you and Hoosier. My point forecast calls for a low 31 tonight and a high 36 tomorrow. So even if temps stay at around freezing during the event, as soon as it quits, solar effects will take over and quickly create melting/compaction. What might technically be a 4" snowfall may quickly turn into 2" of snow remaining. This may not be true for areas farther east and north, but the heavier precip is expected to end by early afternoon in this area, giving time for the sun to do it's dirty work. The other factor is climo would dictate snow falling on frozen ground, but unfortunately, that is not the case this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 That makes no sense... It only feels like spring outside mild as hell with way above normal temps versus a normal Dec with a snowpack colder ground temps makes perfect sense... Its all common sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 It only feels like spring outside mild as hell with way above normal temps versus a normal Dec with a snowpack colder ground temps makes perfect sense... Its all common sense It feels warm because it is warm that has nothing to do with time of day compared to any other December, it has everything to do with the pattern we are in. The amount of solar insulation we get today would be equal to the same amount we got last year. If we want to say the temps will be marginal because of the pattern I'll agree 100% but time of day is very negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 It feels warm because it is warm that has nothing to do with time of day compared to any other December, it has everything to do with the pattern we are in. The amount of solar insulation we get today would be equal to the same amount we got last year. If we want to say the temps will be marginal because of the pattern I'll agree 100% but time of day is very negligible. You are right in that regard as there will be little CAA swooping in system, allowing ANY solar insolation to have a greater effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 This is the first time I've seen paranoia over the sun angle in late December. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I'm really not seeing it with this one for the central Ohio area. I think it could be a case where it snows all day but melts on contact, and then as the storm pulls away we get a coating to at most an inch of wet snow. I think you're right. Grassy surface slush event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 EC has a special weather statement up for all of Southern ON accuweather also calling for at least 3" in the Toronto area, but EC is calling for rain mixed with wet snow with a high around 38F. Don't see how we get much accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Compare, contrast. Congrats eastern IL/western IN. 12z NAM 10:1 clown map 12z NAM Kuchera clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 accuweather also calling for at least 3" in the Toronto area, but EC is calling for rain mixed with wet snow with a high around 38F. Don't see how we get much accumulation. The high will be in the morning and temps will drop slowly in the afternoon. There's a chance that we start out as a bit of rain, and there's a better chance that when we switch to snow, it has trouble sticking for the first couple of hours. But if the 12z NAM/GFS are correct, we should get a period during the evening when the snow rips for a while. Very favourable location of the 850/700mb low. I'd say 2-3" is a good call for us. It's just too bad the low is still developing/moving so fast while it's crossing our latitude. By the time it gets up to Ottawa, it'll be quite the show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 The high will be in the morning and temps will drop slowly in the afternoon. There's a chance that we start out as a bit of rain, and there's a better chance that when we switch to snow, it has trouble sticking for the first couple of hours. But if the 12z NAM/GFS are correct, we should get a period during the evening when the snow rips for a while. Very favourable location of the 850/700mb low. I'd say 2-3" is a good call for us. It's just too bad the low is still developing/moving so fast while it's crossing our latitude. By the time it gets up to Ottawa, it'll be quite the show. IMO i dont usually follow EC or TWN given there track record over the past few years. I think TWN is too warm with this storm. If we can create more dynamic cooling then amounts will be higher but I'm perfectly fine with seeing 2-4" which is SOMETHING given our snow drought. ECMWF keeps surface temps below 2C. Lets see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 IMO i dont usually follow EC or TWN given there track record over the past few years. I think TWN is too warm with this storm. If we can create more dynamic cooling then amounts will be higher but I'm perfectly fine with seeing 2-4" which is SOMETHING given our snow drought. ECMWF keeps surface temps below 2C. Lets see. It's hard to follow EC much because beyond 24 hours they seem to blindly follow the GGEM, regardless of what the other models are showing. I ran 12z NAM through BUFKIT. Like I thought, things are toasty to start, but by around 0z, everything down to 950mb is near or sub freezing. It is kinda of persistent with the warmth at the sfc though. Nonetheless, cold air is sufficiently deep for snow per p-type algorithm, aside from 1-2 hours of -RA at the start, but it's going to be slushy snow given those sfc temps. I'll qualify be call. 2-3" on the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 9z SREF mean has 0.0" snowfall for LAF and all of central IN. 100% rain. Only snow it has is up in northern IN and OH, and SE MI. Take it FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 DTX If we took everything verbatim that WFOs said prior to events we would have people jumping out of windows. Utter disaster. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 12z GFS this morning painting a widespread 1 - 3" of snow for Upper Ohio River Valley through Wednesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 jim what program do you utilize to produce that graphic? j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 IND has 1-2" total in the updated zone forecast for here. Seems like a conservative, but good call. Too much uncertainty with precipitation type for me to like going higher than that right now. Only positive is that the bulk should fall overnight/tomorrow morning. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 jim what program do you utilize to produce that graphic? j/k http://www.getpaint.net/ Excellent program too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 If we took everything verbatim that WFOs said prior to events we would have people jumping out of windows. Utter disaster. Lol Lol@ at you jumping into a conversation and throwing your two cents in and have no idea what we were talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Lol@ at you jumping into a conversation and throwing your two cents in and have no idea what we were talking about. Lol @ u. Wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 This morning's IWX WRF says what snow for IN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Lol @ u. Wtf LOL @ You... hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.