michsnowfreak Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 It's late December, I wouldn't put much stake in time of day... Agree. Now, if you have a very light snow falling and its in the low-mid 30s all day, then possibly that would be a factor, but if you get decent snowfall rates hell it doesnt matter if its April. Now, not saying there will be heavy snow falling with this storm, but the fact that its the best time of year for low sun angle, I dont think time of day is an issue. If anything it would affect snow accumulating on the streets (plow drivers must be going crazy, all these snowfalls weve had thus far have required salt, not plowing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Kuchera maps actually look worse than the 10:1 which is a reflection of the marginal temp profiles. I'm desperate, so the Kuchera map looks good to me. But yeah, it is an interesting contrast between the two...or you could say 10:1 is "what might have been had this been a normal late December snow" and Kuchera is "this is what you're getting, be happy, because this winter has sucked and true cold is MIA". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 0.478" of precipitation for Detroit, 98%-99% is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Agree. Now, if you have a very light snow falling and its in the low-mid 30s all day, then possibly that would be a factor, but if you get decent snowfall rates hell it doesnt matter if its April. Now, not saying there will be heavy snow falling with this storm, but the fact that its the best time of year for low sun angle, I dont think time of day is an issue. If anything it would affect snow accumulating on the streets (plow drivers must be going crazy, all these snowfalls weve had thus far have required salt, not plowing). Agree on the time of year but... Problem is going to be temps will start as high as 34-35 + warm grounds + Daytime = loss of some accumulations, not a ton but some Plowers make more money salting then actual plowing. Less time. Less wear and tear on trucks and man hours depending on size of company Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 00Z RGEM looks bleh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 A forecaster on FB, BAM chase team, is saying 4-6 here. I don't buy it, no way I could with all of the disagreement and current history. We might get a ground cover, if you have short grass. I don't see it being sled worth. Sent from my HTC Thunderbolt on the Verizon network . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 0z NAM Precip Type valid at 10am Tuesday morning. Rain/Snow mix along a line from Cincinnati to Cleveland westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I'm thinking a narrow band from say Salem, MO through Effingham, IL through LAF 15-20 miles either side 2-3" TOPS, 1-2" surrounding that by about 50-55 miles or so... then the phase starts to kick in making it a bit bigger snow area, for NE indiana into ohio/Michigan.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 00Z RGEM looks bleh Looking at the hourly/precip type maps, doesn't look too bad for eastern IL through most of central and northern IN,...but then kind of craps the bed for SE MI. Kind of weird how it does that...almost as if it transfers energy to the NE low and SE MI gets leftovers. Actually that's probably what it's doing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Agree. Now, if you have a very light snow falling and its in the low-mid 30s all day, then possibly that would be a factor, but if you get decent snowfall rates hell it doesnt matter if its April. Now, not saying there will be heavy snow falling with this storm, but the fact that its the best time of year for low sun angle, I dont think time of day is an issue. If anything it would affect snow accumulating on the streets (plow drivers must be going crazy, all these snowfalls weve had thus far have required salt, not plowing). We had mountain piles out here November 30th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I'm liking 1-3" for an early first call for LAF. If we get BL temps on our side them maybe a tad more but I'm going to go conservative for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 0z NAM being really aggressive with the snowfall for the triple point where Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I'm liking 1-3" for an early first call for LAF. If we get BL temps on our side them maybe a tad more but I'm going to go conservative for now. Seems like a good call at this point. 0z NAM being really aggressive with the snowfall for the triple point where Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan come together. That map looks like a repeat of Nov 29th, at least for the general area of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I hate it when they do this. The NAM has come NW and now the GFS is going SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 gfs = merda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 I'm liking 1-3" for an early first call for LAF. If we get BL temps on our side them maybe a tad more but I'm going to go conservative for now. NAM BUFKIT has about a 3-4 hour period of pretty decent lift where rates could be in the 3/4 to 1" per hour range if it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Convective feedback? Looks a bit suspect with a deeper MB low pressure than the nam much further southeast. Also, highest convective returns right where the LP is. Anyone elses thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 what a waste of slop down south... enjoy tho. Oh how I pray there is tons of pile ups and destruction. Severe or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 HiRes guidance is amped up QPF-wise with this frontal circulation while GFS/GEM/UKMET not all that impressed. interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Looks like the Euro gives a nod to the NAM/Hiresw. HiRes guidance is amped up QPF-wise with this frontal circulation while GFS/GEM/UKMET not all that impressed. interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Looks like the Euro gives a nod to the NAM/Hiresw. precip shield further west than the 12z run, decent precip gets to MDW it looks like but BL temps look like an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Euro solid here again, widespread .4" around FDY TOL DFI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 0z ECMWF... STL: TUE 00Z 27-DEC 3.5 -0.4 1019 84 99 0.11 562 547 TUE 06Z 27-DEC 0.8 -2.3 1013 99 90 0.30 553 543 TUE 12Z 27-DEC 1.6 -2.2 1009 96 96 0.08 545 538 DEC: TUE 00Z 27-DEC 4.0 3.8 1018 66 75 0.01 562 547 TUE 06Z 27-DEC 0.7 -1.6 1012 99 99 0.36 554 544 TUE 12Z 27-DEC 0.6 -3.2 1007 99 98 0.12 544 538 TUE 18Z 27-DEC 3.5 -3.4 1008 74 41 0.02 539 533 PIA: TUE 06Z 27-DEC 1.7 -1.1 1012 93 98 0.06 552 543 TUE 12Z 27-DEC 1.4 -1.9 1007 93 55 0.01 543 537 ORD: TUE 12Z 27-DEC 1.5 -2.4 1005 91 100 0.03 542 538 TUE 18Z 27-DEC 4.9 -3.8 1003 68 34 0.01 536 533 WED 00Z 28-DEC 2.3 -6.2 1011 85 54 0.02 538 530 MDW: TUE 06Z 27-DEC 2.8 0.0 1011 78 99 0.02 552 543 TUE 12Z 27-DEC 1.5 -2.8 1005 94 99 0.11 542 538 TUE 18Z 27-DEC 4.9 -3.7 1003 68 34 0.02 536 533 WED 00Z 28-DEC 2.6 -5.8 1010 84 67 0.02 538 530 WED 06Z 28-DEC -1.8 -5.5 1018 66 7 0.01 545 531 PAH: TUE 00Z 27-DEC 4.2 5.3 1019 86 98 0.15 567 551 TUE 06Z 27-DEC 4.0 0.3 1012 98 98 0.57 557 547 TUE 12Z 27-DEC 1.2 -3.6 1010 99 99 0.24 545 537 TUE 18Z 27-DEC 5.9 -1.3 1011 77 53 0.12 544 535 IND: TUE 06Z 27-DEC 2.5 0.6 1013 74 100 0.02 557 547 TUE 12Z 27-DEC 0.9 -3.2 1006 99 99 0.23 546 541 TUE 18Z 27-DEC 1.1 -3.7 1004 97 92 0.17 539 535 WED 00Z 28-DEC 3.0 -4.9 1010 81 51 0.02 539 531 WED 06Z 28-DEC 1.4 -7.0 1016 90 7 0.01 547 535 LAF: TUE 06Z 27-DEC 2.7 -0.7 1013 75 100 0.01 555 545 TUE 12Z 27-DEC 0.7 -4.0 1006 99 95 0.20 544 539 TUE 18Z 27-DEC 2.6 -3.3 1004 89 72 0.07 538 535 WED 00Z 28-DEC 3.6 -4.9 1010 75 95 0.01 538 530 WED 06Z 28-DEC 1.3 -7.0 1017 79 5 0.01 547 534 VPZ: TUE 06Z 27-DEC 1.7 -0.4 1013 88 100 0.04 554 544 TUE 12Z 27-DEC 0.6 -3.6 1006 99 99 0.34 543 538 TUE 18Z 27-DEC 3.3 -3.9 1003 82 64 0.07 537 534 WED 00Z 28-DEC 2.2 -5.2 1009 90 97 0.04 537 529 WED 06Z 28-DEC -1.1 -7.0 1016 78 8 0.03 545 532 OKK: TUE 12Z 27-DEC 0.7 -3.9 1006 99 100 0.19 546 541 TUE 18Z 27-DEC 1.0 -4.0 1003 98 94 0.10 538 535 WED 00Z 28-DEC 2.6 -4.7 1009 86 70 0.04 538 530 WED 06Z 28-DEC 0.5 -7.7 1015 90 5 0.03 545 533 FWA: TUE 12Z 27-DEC 0.7 -3.2 1006 96 98 0.18 547 542 TUE 18Z 27-DEC 1.1 -4.3 1002 97 99 0.13 537 536 WED 00Z 28-DEC 2.0 -4.2 1007 89 39 0.04 536 531 HAO: TUE 12Z 27-DEC 3.0 -0.7 1006 97 100 0.33 550 545 TUE 18Z 27-DEC 2.1 -3.7 1003 94 97 0.18 538 535 WED 00Z 28-DEC 2.2 -4.4 1009 94 61 0.09 539 531 WED 06Z 28-DEC 1.8 -5.4 1014 92 56 0.02 544 533 DAY: TUE 12Z 27-DEC 1.5 -1.0 1006 98 99 0.31 550 545 TUE 18Z 27-DEC 2.2 -3.3 1002 97 98 0.19 537 536 WED 00Z 28-DEC 1.4 -4.6 1008 95 88 0.10 538 532 WED 06Z 28-DEC 1.2 -5.3 1013 92 65 0.01 542 532 CMH: TUE 12Z 27-DEC 1.1 0.3 1008 98 99 0.21 553 547 TUE 18Z 27-DEC 2.9 -1.5 1001 97 99 0.23 538 538 WED 00Z 28-DEC 1.3 -5.1 1006 95 97 0.11 538 533 WED 06Z 28-DEC 1.8 -5.7 1011 91 72 0.02 539 530 WED 12Z 28-DEC -2.0 -5.9 1018 76 3 0.01 546 532 TDZ: TUE 12Z 27-DEC 0.8 -1.6 1007 92 98 0.13 549 543 TUE 18Z 27-DEC 1.1 -3.9 1000 99 100 0.20 537 537 WED 00Z 28-DEC 1.3 -4.9 1004 95 100 0.12 535 532 WED 06Z 28-DEC -0.4 -6.0 1010 85 65 0.01 537 528 CLE: TUE 12Z 27-DEC 1.8 -0.7 1009 75 100 0.05 552 545 TUE 18Z 27-DEC 1.6 -2.4 1001 98 99 0.27 540 540 WED 00Z 28-DEC 1.2 -5.1 1002 94 97 0.15 535 533 WED 06Z 28-DEC 1.6 -6.1 1007 92 98 0.06 534 528 WED 12Z 28-DEC -2.5 -10.7 1015 76 5 0.02 540 528 WED 18Z 28-DEC -2.8 -9.2 1019 66 8 0.01 541 526 BTL: TUE 06Z 27-DEC 2.3 2.5 1012 71 38 0.01 554 544 TUE 12Z 27-DEC 0.7 -3.0 1006 96 98 0.16 544 540 TUE 18Z 27-DEC 0.9 -4.4 1001 97 94 0.21 536 535 WED 00Z 28-DEC 1.5 -5.1 1006 90 78 0.03 534 530 ADG: TUE 12Z 27-DEC 0.5 -2.3 1007 90 98 0.10 547 542 TUE 18Z 27-DEC 0.7 -4.6 1001 95 98 0.17 537 536 WED 00Z 28-DEC 1.5 -4.9 1004 93 93 0.09 535 532 WED 06Z 28-DEC -2.0 -6.3 1011 81 16 0.01 538 529 DTW: TUE 12Z 27-DEC 0.8 -2.1 1008 87 99 0.06 548 541 TUE 18Z 27-DEC 0.6 -4.2 1000 97 99 0.21 537 537 WED 00Z 28-DEC 1.3 -5.1 1003 94 98 0.11 534 532 WED 06Z 28-DEC -1.4 -7.1 1010 81 54 0.01 535 527 PHN: TUE 12Z 27-DEC 0.7 -1.9 1008 84 100 0.01 547 541 TUE 18Z 27-DEC 0.6 -4.2 1000 98 98 0.20 538 537 WED 00Z 28-DEC 1.0 -5.1 1001 94 97 0.12 533 532 WED 06Z 28-DEC -0.5 -7.6 1008 85 88 0.03 531 525 WED 12Z 28-DEC -5.5 -11.1 1015 76 6 0.01 537 525 YKF: TUE 18Z 27-DEC 0.5 -3.7 1002 94 98 0.16 541 539 WED 00Z 28-DEC 0.1 -5.1 999 98 100 0.18 532 533 WED 06Z 28-DEC 0.5 -5.7 1001 93 95 0.06 530 529 WED 12Z 28-DEC -6.9 -9.8 1011 74 5 0.01 531 522 YYZ: TUE 18Z 27-DEC 1.0 -3.7 1002 95 97 0.11 542 540 WED 00Z 28-DEC 0.7 -4.9 998 99 100 0.24 533 534 WED 06Z 28-DEC 1.6 -5.6 1000 88 98 0.08 530 530 WED 12Z 28-DEC -5.7 -8.9 1009 75 43 0.01 528 521 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 The WRF-ARW is jacked...looks like some bands of 5-10" taken at face value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 The WRF-ARW is jacked...looks like some bands of 5-10" taken at face value. Look at 10:1 then Kuchera maps on wxcaster. Depressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Out of IWX Special Weather Statement SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 325 AM EST MON DEC 26 2011 INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004- 005-015-016-024-025-262000- LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB- STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN- WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD- JAY-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS- FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND... MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN... NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT... KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX... NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE... PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW... WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES... SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON... MONON...LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO... WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON... OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND... HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...NILES... BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS... MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON... COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE... BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE... SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER... PAULDING...ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA... FORT JENNINGS...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA... SPENCERVILLE 325 AM EST MON DEC 26 2011 /225 AM CST MON DEC 26 2011/ ...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.... PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BEGIN TO MERGE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE 4 AM EST TO NOON EST TIME PERIOD...WITH LIGHT SNOW POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 69. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF WET SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS SUCH THAT THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AS DETAILS ON THE EXACT TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PRECIPITATION TYPES BECOME MORE CLEAR. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Even these 'small' storms are hard to get excited about with the extent of model variance & disagreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 NAM with a 996 near Syracuse. Prime track for YYZ, albeit climatologically unlikely. Even if we start out as rain, that'd be a half-decent deformation zone we'd get into by early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 It's late December, I wouldn't put much stake in time of day... DTX but also factoring in the 00z European (12hr quantitative precipitation forecast ~ 0.35 inches)...a bit of melting and compaction due to the marginal surface temperatures (at or slightly above freezing)...looks like a 1 to 3 inch snowfall setting up (the higher accumulation confined to grassy/elevated surfaces of the irish hills). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 DTX Temps aren't marginal because time of day... They are marginal because there is a lack of cold air to be found with this system like every other system this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.