AppsRunner Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Euro is about 3-5" verbatim... would take that and run. NAM went from .6" to about .15" within about 3 runs. Will admit the ECM's been the most consistent. 2-4" looks good here though... won't be too optimistic and call it 2-3" widespread though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Euro is about 3-5" verbatim... would take that and run. NAM went from .6" to about .15" within about 3 runs. Will admit the ECM's been the most consistent. 2-4" looks good here though... won't be too optimistic and call it 2-3" widespread though. I concur with you there AppsRunner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Just saw accuwx's map... total failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Euro coming in further west??? That would be nice! Looks like the same areas that got hit with the cut-off low snow. Little bit of discussion from LOT. "THE CAVEAT TO THIS FORECAST IS THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WAS STILL OFFSHORE AND NOT FULLY SAMPLED AT 12Z THIS MORNING...SO PROBABLY BEST TO CHECK IN AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AFTER IT GETS SAMPLED AT 00Z. ONCE THESE WAVES PHASE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BECOME A HEALTHY SNOW MAKER FOR LOCATIONS JUST EAST OF US." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 That would be nice! Looks like the same areas that got hit with the cut-off low snow. Little bit of discussion from LOT. "THE CAVEAT TO THIS FORECAST IS THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WAS STILL OFFSHORE AND NOT FULLY SAMPLED AT 12Z THIS MORNING...SO PROBABLY BEST TO CHECK IN AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AFTER IT GETS SAMPLED AT 00Z. ONCE THESE WAVES PHASE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BECOME A HEALTHY SNOW MAKER FOR LOCATIONS JUST EAST OF US." sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Sounds good. We need 2.4" to eclipse November. All in all, IF this thing goes down and we get to 6"-ish for the season by the end of the month...it's a big win in a thus far horrendous pattern. IND thinking that warm ground will really hurt accumulations. That argument has its place but I'm not sure I agree with it in this instance. In the week prior to the November 29 event highs were mainly in the 50's/60's with no lows below freezing and it didn't have much trouble sticking. This time we will have had about a week of highs in the 40's before the event. Good rates will be key...as long as we have that then I'm not too concerned. Now afterward could be another story as I said before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Looks like better interaction between the northern/southern waves so far on the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Lock it in please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Nice. Norther stream digs quite effectively and the resulting phase results in a possible advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Much longer in the precip over here in Eastern Indiana, not bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Looks like better interaction between the northern/southern waves so far on the 00z NAM. Ya easily seen too. LAF looking good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 NAM looks like a solid 3-5" event for LAF to DTW to YYZ and surrounding areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 IND thinking that warm ground will really hurt accumulations. That argument has its place but I'm not sure I agree with it in this instance. In the week prior to the November 29 event highs were mainly in the 50's/60's with no lows below freezing and it didn't have much trouble sticking. This time we will have had about a week of highs in the 40's before the event. Good rates will be key...as long as we have that then I'm not too concerned. Now afterward could be another story as I said before. The warm ground deal, while having some validity, has to be the most overused excuse...ever. It's all about rates, though of course warm ground (pavement) will cut into the totals a bit. Their afternoon AFD sounded like to me they were more worried about it being mainly rain. Anyways, 0z NAM looks better...at first glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 NAM looks like a solid 3-5" event for LAF to DTW to YYZ and surrounding areas 0.30"-0.60" QPF ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 NAM looks like a solid 3-5" event for LAF to DTW to YYZ and surrounding areas Yeah, a modest hit. Doesn't try and jump the mountains with the sfc low. 2m temps kinda suck though. Might be more of a 2-3" type deal...which...is just fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 The warm ground deal, while having some validity, has to be the most overused excuse...ever. It's all about rates, though of course warm ground (pavement) will cut into the totals a bit. Their afternoon AFD sounded like to me they were more worried about it being mainly rain. Anyways, 0z NAM looks better...at first glance. Our freezing level/wbz hangs around 1600 feet through 12z Tuesday per the NAM and it gets trickier the farther south/east you go. Indy metro could be really tough to call in terms of amounts...could see a pretty good gradient.Are you getting back to LAF early on Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Yeah, a modest hit. Doesn't try and jump the mountains with the sfc low. 2m temps kinda suck though. Might be more of a 2-3" type deal...which...is just fine by me. Let's hope this produces but as you said 2m temps are cruddy but you never know we can still fix that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Our freezing level/wbz hangs around 1600 feet through 12z Tuesday per the NAM and it gets trickier the farther south/east you go. Indy metro could be really tough to call in terms of amounts...could see a pretty good gradient.Are you getting back to LAF early on Tuesday? Probably early afternoon. No worries though, the ground is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Our freezing level/wbz hangs around 1600 feet through 12z Tuesday per the NAM and it gets trickier the farther south/east you go. Indy metro could be really tough to call in terms of amounts...could see a pretty good gradient.Are you getting back to LAF early on Tuesday? So this isn't looking to good for Seymour, IN? I am home for break. I am guessing good ole' Marion is in a pretty good spot this time around, but I won't be there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Looking much better... at least we have some potential, and the next few days following appear to be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman_ind Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I haven't looked at anything yet, but I know yesterday the soundings were so close to either rain or snow, with just a degree difference having a huge impact. Maybe I'll trust the NAM more since the event is closer out, but I'll have to examine the SREFs too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Yeah, a modest hit. Doesn't try and jump the mountains with the sfc low. 2m temps kinda suck though. Might be more of a 2-3" type deal...which...is just fine by me. Yes, the surface temps look to be around 1-2C but more cooling across the atmosphere may help cool the surface, hopefully. Surface temps around 0C should bode well. Maybe if we had some snow cover across the ground then temps would be cooler but clearly that has been VERY difficult to achieve. not a bad run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Looking much better... at least we have some potential, and the next few days following appear to be cold. Temps "appear" to be cold enough for primarily an all snow event north of Detroit but Storm comes in during daylight hours which sucks might cut down a little on totals specially with marginal temps. A this point... 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 So this isn't looking to good for Seymour, IN? I am home for break. I am guessing good ole' Marion is in a pretty good spot this time around, but I won't be there Seymour is probably too far south. Maybe a brief changeover near the end the way it looks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I haven't looked at anything yet, but I know yesterday the soundings were so close to either rain or snow, with just a degree difference having a huge impact. Maybe I'll trust the NAM more since the event is closer out, but I'll have to examine the SREFs too. Indy still looks dicey, just taking a quick look at the soundings off the 0z NAM. Good luck to you all at the office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Yes, the surface temps look to be around 1-2C but more cooling across the atmosphere may help cool the surface, hopefully. Surface temps around 0C should bode well. Maybe if we had some snow cover across the ground then temps would be cooler but clearly that has been VERY difficult to achieve. not a bad run Fast mover too. Probably can't get much better than what the NAM's showing right now. Just have to get her to hold steady for the next 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Temps "appear" to be cold enough for primarily an all snow event north of Detroit but Storm comes in during daylight hours which sucks might cut down a little on totals specially with marginal temps. A this point... 2-3" It's late December, I wouldn't put much stake in time of day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Hope everyone had a great Christmas. After a nice holiday, it was nice to see the 00z runs start off this way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Kuchera maps actually look worse than the 10:1 which is a reflection of the marginal temp profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Usual timing/phasing/cold air availability etc. questions. As messy as it appears, it still looks like our best potential so far this season for a modest , any, accum of snow/slush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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