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December 26-27 Potential Snow Event

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted

The GFS appears to be slightly faster/less amplified with the polar branch shortwave than the Euro...and just by a few hours and perhaps 50-100 miles farther north. The GFS also appears to move the Texas cut-off east just a tad slower than the Euro...look at this 48 hour forecast plot from the 0z Euro:

post-525-0-08064100-1324796801.gif

0z GFS:

post-525-0-02624000-1324796898.gif

These really are not major synoptic differences between the two models, however the GFS is noticably farther south than the Euro with the storm/precip shield. The op GFS appears to have decent ensemble support and the op Euro seems to have decent ensemble support.

Given the GFS bias of being too progressive with northern stream features, I would want to give the nod to the Euro/foreign models (and the NAM to some extent). The Pacific energy that will try to phase with the filling cut-off will likely be partially sampled for today's 12z runs and fully sampled for tonight's 0z runs. If we see a trend towards the Euro solution or GFS solution, I believe we will see it by this evening.

post-525-0-19983900-1324797395.png

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afterimage

afterimage

Posted
Posted

Nice outlook from IWX....

"MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. PRIMARY FOCUS CONTS TO BE ON EJECTION

OF EDWARDS PLATEAU VORTEX EWD INTO ARKLATEX RGN LATE MONDAY NIGHT

THEN NORTHEAST INTO TN VLY ON TUE. DIFFICULTIES ABOUND WRT

DEGREE/TIMING OF PHASING WITH NRN STREAM /135W/ WAVE AFTER BEAT DOWN

OF WRN STATES RIDGE SUN NGHT/MON. WHILE 00 UTC GFS/NAM SHOW GREAT

MID/ULVL FEATURE AGREEMENT WITH FASTER/MORE DAMPED NRN STREAM WAVE

INTO WRN GRTLKS AT F60...AND SUBSEQUENTLY BEARS ONLY LITTLE

INFLUENCE ONTO SRN STREAM EJECTION...PREFERENCE STILL LIES WITH

GEM/UKMET AND EXTRMLY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN ECMWF WRT LT DY2/DY3

SYSTEM. CRNT STRONG POSITIVE ATLANTIC OSCILLATION INDEX WITH WINTER

NEG HGHT TENDENCIES FM OH VLY INTO MIDATLANTIC RGN COULD ALSO POINT

TO CONGEALING SYSTEMS. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN STRENGTH/SHARPNESS/SRN

EXTENSION OF CRNT TROF INTO EPAC PER WV IMAGERY AND ONLY WEAK

UPSTREAM RIDGING...SUSPECT NAM/GFS ALONG WITH MOST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE

MEMBERS AMISS PER ADVERTISED NRN STREAM CYCLOLYSIS/SEPARATE NRN

TRACK. RAPID NWD GOMEX ROOTED MSTR XPORT THROUGH I290-295K LYR INTO

SRN/SERN CWA WITH 3.5-3.7 G/KG I290-300K LYR AT 12 UTC TUE WITH FAR

SERN CWA ON NRN MSTR PLUME PIVOT POINT...WHICH IF CORRECT SUGGESTS

/THOUGH BRIEF/ POTNL SIG PRECIP RATES...PORTENDING OF FUTURE NEED TO

DELINEATE SNOW ADVSRY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. COLD ECMWF WET

BULB PROFILES AT ONSET ALONG WITH ASCENT PER ISENT UPGLIDE/INCRSGLY

STRONG SRN GRTLKS INTO TN VLY MIDLVL HGHT FALLS AND INITIAL DRY

SUBCLOUD LYR SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFCNT COLUMN COOLING FOR COMPLETE

CHANGEOVER LATE MON NIGHT/SPCLY ACRS FAR SERN/SRN CWA WHERE BEST

MSTR/HIR PCPN RATES ANTICIPATED. THEREAFTER ECMWF UNDERGOES ENERGY

XFER WITH MIDATL/COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY TUE AFTN/NIGHT TO

DRAW WRN FRINGE OF DEEP LYR SUBSIDENCE ACRS CWA AND HAVE AFFORDED

SOME TEMPORAL/SPATIAL DETAIL. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS A BIT LWR TUE NIGHT

WITH DEEPER CAA AS STORM RACES INTO NEW ENGLAND...PARTIAL CLEARING

AND POTNL FRESH SNOWCOVER. MORE ACTIVE NRN CONUS PATTERN IN FAST

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH UPSTREAM PERTURBATIONS PERIODICALLY EXUDE

THROUGH SRN PERIPHERY OF SEMI-PERMANENT AK AND ERN ASIA/JAPAN

VORTICIES. FIRST WEAK CLIPPER FOR LOW CHC SNOW THU. DRY THU NIGHT

WITH NOD TO CONTINUITY AS PERTURBED FLOW LKLY TO DAMPEN INADOV

FRI/FRI NIGHT SYSTEM...WITH ANOTHER BY LATE WEEKEND. QPF/PTYPE TO

AFFORD FUTURE FCST CHALLENGES WITH FLUCTUATIONS IN RUN TO RUN

VARIANCES IN SERN CO/SRN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS FOR DEEPER GOMEX MSTR

TAPS. "

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kab2791

kab2791

Posted
Posted

Would be nice. This run verbatim show a couple inches for us at least.

If we could only get the trough to slow and go negative quicker, we'd have a shot of pulling the sfc low closer to the lakes. Verbatim, the 12z run of the GFS, still keeps the best juice east of the Apps.

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

Posted
Posted

Yeah major differences between the 0z and 12z runs of the GFS regarding the phasing, and then this thing bombs out when it gets near the EC and feeds off of all that moisture. With the energy getting fully sampled by tonight, the 0z runs will be much more useful. Would be nice to get the nrn stream to dig further south and west and get the southern wave to kick out quicker and go neg tilt. One can wish on Christmas right?

b84ce80142e8f7fea3a61a439df65350.gif

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Stevo6899

Stevo6899

Posted
Posted

Yeah major differences between the 0z and 12z runs of the GFS regarding the phasing, and then this thing bombs out when it gets near the EC and feeds off of all that moisture. With the energy getting fully sampled by tonight, the 0z runs will be much more useful. Would be nice to get the nrn stream to dig further south and west and get the southern wave to kick out quicker and go neg tilt. One can wish on Christmas right?

Let's hope. Merry xmas y'all. More phasing would be sweet. As of now the lack of phasing is causing the northern stream to kick the storm east quickly, resulting in minor snows.

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

Posted
Posted

Merry Christmas everyone. Lets hope the models are encouraging for everyone today :)

ATM there's not much consistency seen on the models, though the 12z GFS did shift a bit further north because it was phased much better than the 0z run. The model runs tonight and 12z tomorrow will be really important.

Lets hope the 12z Euro looks good ;)

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Powerball

Powerball

Posted
Posted

GGEM, while it looks menacing through 48hr, is nothing special.

It fails to fully phase the pieces of energy in time, and thus keeps it all at a neutral tilt and the actual system/moisture supressed to the south.

Still, it produces a widespread 2-4" for everyone along/SE of a line from St. Louis to Chicago to Saginaw.

But it bombs out to sub-988mb in western New England and gives way to a nice winter storm for eastern New York.

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weatherpsycho

weatherpsycho

Posted
Posted

GGEM, while it looks menacing through 48hr, is nothing special.

It fails to fully phase the pieces of energy in time, and thus keeps it all at a neutral tilt and the actual system/moisture supressed to the south.

Still, it produces a widespread 2-4" for everyone along/SE of a line from St. Louis to Chicago to Saginaw.

But it bombs out to sub-988mb in western New England and gives way to a nice winter storm for eastern New York.

Good thing is we have a good 24 hours for it to change. Right now I would take 2-4" :) Every little bit helps the ski hills.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted

12z ECMWF:

STL:

TUE 00Z 27-DEC   4.2	 2.4	1019	  70	  97	0.03	 563	 548  
TUE 06Z 27-DEC   1.1	-1.5	1015	  99	  95	0.21	 556	 544  
TUE 12Z 27-DEC   1.6	-1.7	1010	  97	  72	0.02	 547	 539

DEC:

TUE 06Z 27-DEC   0.9	-1.1	1014	  99	  98	0.21	 555	 544  
TUE 12Z 27-DEC   1.1	-2.4	1008	  98	  92	0.07	 546	 540

PAH:

TUE 00Z 27-DEC   5.7	 4.4	1019	  74	  99	0.05	 567	 552  
TUE 06Z 27-DEC   4.3	 1.2	1014	  99	  99	0.56	 560	 549  
TUE 12Z 27-DEC   2.1	-1.4	1009	  99	 100	0.32	 549	 541  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   4.5	-1.3	1010	  86	  46	0.15	 544	 535

IND:

TUE 06Z 27-DEC   2.8	 0.6	1015	  74	  97	0.01	 559	 547  
TUE 12Z 27-DEC   0.8	-2.3	1008	  99	  97	0.27	 550	 543  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   0.9	-3.4	1004	  98	  96	0.13	 540	 536  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   2.6	-4.8	1009	  81	  42	0.05	 538	 531  
WED 06Z 28-DEC   1.6	-6.1	1014	  86	  19	0.01	 544	 533  
WED 12Z 28-DEC  -0.6	-4.5	1019	  84	   7	0.01	 548	 533

LAF:

TUE 06Z 27-DEC   1.9	-0.2	1015	  89	  99	0.05	 557	 545  
TUE 12Z 27-DEC   0.7	-3.3	1008	  99	  96	0.29	 548	 541  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   1.9	-3.1	1004	  91	  54	0.06	 539	 535  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   3.6	-5.1	1009	  70	  77	0.00	 537	 530  
WED 06Z 28-DEC   1.3	-7.2	1015	  90	   4	0.01	 545	 533

VPZ:

TUE 06Z 27-DEC   2.8	 0.5	1014	  68	  98	0.01	 554	 543  
TUE 12Z 27-DEC   0.8	-3.0	1008	  99	  97	0.20	 545	 539  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   3.3	-3.3	1004	  80	  59	0.02	 538	 535  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   3.2	-5.3	1008	  78	  97	0.01	 536	 529  
WED 06Z 28-DEC  -0.3	-9.5	1015	  76	   8	0.04	 543	 531

OKK:

TUE 12Z 27-DEC   0.8	-3.3	1008	  99	  96	0.26	 549	 542  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   0.9	-3.6	1004	  98	  94	0.10	 539	 536  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   2.4	-4.8	1008	  83	  32	0.03	 537	 530  
WED 06Z 28-DEC   0.4	-7.2	1014	  88	   6	0.01	 542	 531

FWA:

TUE 12Z 27-DEC   0.8	-3.1	1009	  99	  97	0.22	 549	 542  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   1.1	-3.6	1003	  98	  98	0.10	 540	 537  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   1.6	-3.9	1006	  88	  70	0.09	 536	 531

HAO:

TUE 12Z 27-DEC   1.8	-0.6	1009	  98	  99	0.34	 553	 546  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   3.4	-2.9	1002	  96	  97	0.15	 541	 539  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   1.4	-4.9	1008	  94	  76	0.16	 538	 532  
WED 06Z 28-DEC   1.3	-5.2	1012	  88	  70	0.01	 540	 530

DAY:

TUE 12Z 27-DEC   1.2	-0.8	1009	  99	 100	0.29	 553	 545  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   1.9	-3.1	1002	  98	  99	0.15	 542	 540  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   0.9	-5.0	1006	  97	  90	0.16	 537	 532  
WED 06Z 28-DEC   0.7	-4.8	1011	  91	  64	0.01	 538	 529  
WED 12Z 28-DEC  -2.1	-5.9	1018	  80	   6	0.01	 546	 532

CMH:

TUE 12Z 27-DEC   1.3	-1.4	1011	  90	  97	0.08	 555	 546  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   2.4	-1.7	1003	  97	 100	0.20	 544	 542  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   1.1	-4.4	1004	  97	  97	0.13	 537	 534  
WED 06Z 28-DEC   1.4	-5.1	1008	  92	  67	0.06	 536	 530  
WED 12Z 28-DEC  -1.7	-6.7	1016	  81	   8	0.01	 544	 531

TDZ:

TUE 12Z 27-DEC   0.9	-1.6	1009	  95	  99	0.12	 550	 542  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   1.5	-3.5	1002	  99	  98	0.16	 542	 540  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   1.0	-5.0	1003	  99	  99	0.13	 535	 533  
WED 06Z 28-DEC   1.0	-5.4	1008	  87	  47	0.04	 534	 528

CLE:

TUE 12Z 27-DEC   1.8	-0.2	1010	  76	  94	0.03	 553	 544  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   1.6	-2.3	1003	  94	  98	0.20	 545	 542  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   0.9	-4.5	1001	  99	  99	0.14	 536	 535  
WED 06Z 28-DEC   1.8	-5.6	1005	  89	  99	0.10	 534	 530  
WED 12Z 28-DEC  -1.2	-8.6	1013	  78	   7	0.02	 538	 528  
WED 18Z 28-DEC  -2.7	-9.7	1017	  69	   5	0.01	 540	 527

BTL:

TUE 12Z 27-DEC   0.7	-3.0	1008	  96	  97	0.16	 546	 539  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   1.5	-4.3	1003	  94	  84	0.08	 539	 536  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   1.8	-4.4	1005	  85	  52	0.02	 534	 530

ADG:

TUE 12Z 27-DEC   0.6	-3.0	1009	  95	 100	0.12	 548	 541  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   1.1	-4.0	1002	  96	  99	0.13	 540	 538  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   1.2	-4.9	1004	  96	  87	0.13	 535	 532  
WED 06Z 28-DEC  -0.6	-5.6	1009	  84	  60	0.01	 535	 528

DTW:

TUE 12Z 27-DEC   1.0	-2.5	1009	  89	  99	0.06	 548	 541  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   1.2	-3.9	1002	  97	  98	0.17	 541	 539  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   1.1	-5.0	1002	  97	  97	0.12	 535	 533  
WED 06Z 28-DEC   0.0	-5.9	1007	  84	  57	0.04	 533	 527

PHN:

TUE 12Z 27-DEC   1.1	-1.4	1009	  83	 100	0.01	 548	 541  
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   1.4	-3.9	1003	  96	  97	0.18	 541	 539  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   0.9	-5.0	1002	  98	  99	0.09	 535	 534  
WED 06Z 28-DEC   0.8	-5.8	1005	  88	  65	0.07	 531	 527  
WED 12Z 28-DEC  -5.0	-9.4	1014	  75	   5	0.01	 536	 525

YKF:

TUE 18Z 27-DEC   0.9	-2.5	1004	  93	  98	0.12	 543	 540  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   0.2	-4.4	1000	  99	  99	0.08	 536	 536  
WED 06Z 28-DEC   0.5	-5.4	1000	  93	  97	0.15	 530	 531  
WED 12Z 28-DEC  -5.5	-8.6	1008	  77	  13	0.01	 529	 523

YYZ:

TUE 18Z 27-DEC   1.9	-2.1	1004	  89	  96	0.07	 544	 540  
WED 00Z 28-DEC   0.7	-4.0	1001	  99	  99	0.07	 537	 537  
WED 06Z 28-DEC   1.3	-5.3	 999	  95	  98	0.17	 530	 531  
WED 12Z 28-DEC  -4.5	-7.8	1007	  77	  75	0.03	 527	 522

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
  • Author
Posted

At this point I like 2-4" for much of central and northern Indiana except far northwest where amounts under 2" may be more common.  The higher end amounts will probably be isolated with a general 2 or 3 looking good.  For LAF specifically, there could be a very brief period of rain at onset but I expect enough cooling to allow for a changeover to snow fairly quickly with temps settling to near/slightly above freezing during the bulk of the event.  May have to measure quickly as some melting/settling may occur almost immediately upon event conclusion given warmish soil temps and highs above freezing. Offices may tend to play it conservative until we get closer.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

At this point I like 2-4" for much of central and northern Indiana except far northwest where amounts under 2" may be more common. The higher end amounts will probably be isolated with a general 2 or 3 looking good. For LAF specifically, there could be a very brief period of rain at onset but I expect enough cooling to allow for a changeover to snow fairly quickly with temps settling to near/slightly above freezing during the bulk of the event. May have to measure quickly as some melting/settling may occur almost immediately upon event conclusion given warmish soil temps and highs above freezing. Offices may tend to play it conservative until we get closer.

Sounds good. We need 2.4" to eclipse November. All in all, IF this thing goes down and we get to 6"-ish for the season by the end of the month...it's a big win in a thus far horrendous pattern.

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

At this point I like 2-4" for much of central and northern Indiana except far northwest where amounts under 2" may be more common. The higher end amounts will probably be isolated with a general 2 or 3 looking good. For LAF specifically, there could be a very brief period of rain at onset but I expect enough cooling to allow for a changeover to snow fairly quickly with temps settling to near/slightly above freezing during the bulk of the event. May have to measure quickly as some melting/settling may occur almost immediately upon event conclusion given warmish soil temps and highs above freezing. Offices may tend to play it conservative until we get closer.

Yeah, all of those positive numbers on the Euro doesn't bode well for large accumulations. If someone would see 5"- 6", they'd better have the camera ready, because it won't stay at 6" for long.

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