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December 26-27 Potential Snow Event


Hoosier

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This storm doesnt have much moisture in the cold sector. Not really excited to get less then 3 inches knowing it will melt. If it was a cold pattern it would be a nice base to start with.

We will definitely have periods of snowcover this winter longer than weve had thus far, but this winter clearly wont hold a candle to 2010-11 (which was 26" and 31 snowcover days above normal here). Despite the atrocious pattern, SE MI has had at least 6 measurable snow events since Nov 30th. With us getting deeper into winter, an eventual (hopefully soon) pattern change, and the active weather in these parts that you can book in a La Nina, plenty more snow will come. The million dollar question is how long will we be able to sustain a snowpack this season? My confidence has increased on the guess I first made in October: total snowfall will be above normal, snowcover below. Im hoping with hints at a pattern change in early-mid January they start growing a snowbase up north, Ive already decided to hold off my trip til early March instead of mid-Feb.

Time to get offline..Merry Christmas Eve all!

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I knew this pattern reminded me of something. The Feb 5 storm from this year...take a look:

post-14-0-77974800-1324761920.gif

12z December 24 analysis:

post-14-0-35312300-1324761954.gif

Definitely some similarities between those 2 maps. Feb 5 was the one that was dead in the water and came back/trended northwest at the last minute in what was probably one of the more dramatic short term shifts for a winter storm since 12/24/02 at least in my opinion. Don't know for sure but I have to assume something was missed in the modeling to cause such a large change and the handling of the Mexico upper low is a prime suspect. Sorta the opposite this time in that we have a storm that is being advertised...hopefully it doesn't go poof as we get closer.

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I hope everyone saved themselves a physical/mental image of that 00z NAM run from last night (12/24), it could very well be the best we're going to get out of this storm.

I admit to think that this *might* stay southeast of here with the AO/NAO the way it is IS infuriating to say the least. Note i did say MIGHT. :P Still enough time to get this back on a more correct course further to the nw. I would rather be missed to the nw and lay down some snow up that way.

Merry Christmas to all!

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I admit to think that this *might* stay southeast of here with the AO/NAO the way it is IS infuriating to say the least. Note i did say MIGHT. :P Still enough time to get this back on a more correct course further to the nw. I would rather be missed to the nw and lay down some snow up that way.

Merry Christmas to all!

Merry Christmas to you too.

It's close though. If the northern stream can dig just a little harder or the southern stream can move just a little faster then we're in serious business. And if it closes off in the process then whoopie!!! But it's pretty all or nothing, no in betweens.

Though I'm honestly not complaining if this pattern sticks with us for a few more weeks. My commute is too long to be driving in snow. It's going to change eventually anyway.

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