Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Well, duh. The NAM has been atrocious this winter, I think everyone knows that. But it's eye candy right now...nothing more, nothing less. Like a dallas cowboys cheerleader we can't have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2011 Author Share Posted December 24, 2011 Hopefully this thing produces some measurable snow somewhere...anywhere in the region. Fingers crossed. Don't want to count the chickens before they hatch but if this storm were to pan out as the models are showing now, we'd finish the year with above average snow despite +5.1 Nov and +5.4 December to date. That would be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Temps? Looks Marginal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Temps? Looks Marginal If the NAM is right dynamic cooling will do the trick.. No worries with the temp department.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2011 Author Share Posted December 24, 2011 Temps? Looks Marginal As per the norm this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Well, duh. The NAM has been atrocious this winter, I think everyone knows that. But it's eye candy right now...nothing more, nothing less. reinforcement ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 As per the norm this winter. Thats what I see with this. Lack cold air at start. Precip will begin as Rain then slowly a changeover. "dynamic cooling" because we all know theres no true arctic air tapped with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 00Z GFS has the northern stream energy moving eastward quicker than the 18Z run/NAM leading to less phasing and a weaker, further SE solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 GFS has a decent storm as well but further south and east..Looks like it'll come down to how the northern stream behaves and since it is still offshore look for a few more changes/surprises.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 The big discrepancies come hour 60-72 in how the NAM handles the incoming Pacific shortwave. NAM essentially has a much more amplified wave with a portion of the energy digging onto the backside of the cutoff upper low and acting as a stronger kicker wave. The end result is a fuller phase. (Note the backside shortwave across the high plains). GFS and every other piece of guidance has the Pacific wave remaining a single entity across the Canadian border and never fully phases the two systems. NAM: GFS: NAM would truly be pulling a coupe. It is possible but I am highly skeptical anything close to the NAM pans out until global guidance suggests something similar. NAM trying to handle Pacific waves near the edge of its boundary conditions usually does not equate to success. Throw in the seasonal trends and the NAM solution seems the least likely by quite a bit. Doesn't mean it can't happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Holy crap is right. That's an awesome map sequence, BI. It brings back memories. Imagine GHD snow with blizzard or near-blizzard conditions for a full day over a large area. Amazing how that storm managed to happen looking at that Pacific which looks VERY familiar. Thus crappy. That indeed was a thread the needle event! Probably one of the most epic phases ever. Hard to beat that. Only reason Superstorm 1993 was more "epic" was because the southern stream PV was already in the GOM, and that storm affected a much broader population area. It was also absolutely massive. 1978 was definitely more impressive overall in terms of pure upper air dynamics, at least IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 GFS has me dreaming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 GFS has me dreaming. Dreaming of Rain with some snow mixed in towards the tail end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Dreaming of Rain with some snow mixed in towards the tail end? What I really meant was I was dreaming of what it could have been... not really what it was verbatim. Although,d uring the heaviest precip, it would be snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 GGEM shows a greater phase than it's 12Z run and the GFS FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Temps? Looks Marginal IF this thing phases like some guidance hinted at, temps shouldn't be an issue at all this far north. But Lol it's still a ways out and lol at the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Probably one of the most epic phases ever. Hard to beat that. Only reason Superstorm 1993 was more "epic" was because the southern stream PV was already in the GOM, and that storm affected a much broader population area. It was also absolutely massive. 1978 was definitely more impressive overall in terms of pure upper air dynamics, at least IMO. I still have a bad leftover taste in my mouth with 1993. For most of the week it had looked like a massive blizzard where i was at. Atleast per TWC and the local guys it did. Typically when a system forms in that part of the GULF ( atleast that i had followed over the years leading up to this storm ) it has always been a snow event but ala this beast had it's own ideas. A very interesting 24hrs that day despite missing the heavy duty snows. Started out with a quick thump of some very heavy wet snow ( 2-4 ) and then a very heavy rain and high winds ( 60-70mph ) with temps that blasted into the 60s and even some severe wx and once the low passed by ( almost over head/a shade west ) those temps crashed harder then i have ever seen and the rain turned back to snow and dumped another 4-5" with blizzard conditions and temps that fell into the single digits/teens. At one point had a blizzard warning going along with a tornado watch/and warnings everywhere. Also had a coastal flood warning, high wind warning too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I still have a bad leftover taste in my mouth with 1993. For most of the week it had looked like a massive blizzard where i was at. Atleast per TWC and the local guys it did. Typically when a system forms in that part of the GULF ( atleast that i had followed over the years leading up to this storm ) it has always been a snow event but ala this beast had it's own ideas. A very interesting 24hrs that day despite missing the heavy duty snows. Started out with a quick thump of some very heavy wet snow ( 2-4 ) and then a very heavy rain and high winds ( 60-70mph ) with temps that blasted into the 60s and even some severe wx and once the low passed by ( almost over head/a shade west ) those temps crashed harder then i have ever seen and the rain turned back to snow and dumped another 4-5" with blizzard conditions and temps that fell into the single digits/teens. At one point had a blizzard warning going along with a tornado watch/and warnings everywhere. Also had a coastal flood warning, high wind warning too. Missing the heaviest snow from that storm would have been disappointing, but it would have been awesome watching those transitions take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Missing the heaviest snow from that storm would have been disappointing, but it would have been awesome watching those transitions take place. Best transistion day around here that I remember is 1/29/08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Best transistion day around here that I remember is 1/29/08 O, wow that day! High 49, low 3 at my house! -5° (-30° wind chill) the next morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Best transistion day around here that I remember is 1/29/08 My favorite is Feb 11 '99. We hit 69 at noon shortly before a line of severe storms hit. Was down to 36 by 4pm, and had flurries by 6pm. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=50&interval=5&year=1999&month=2&day=11&hour=13&minute=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2011 Author Share Posted December 24, 2011 Best transistion day around here that I remember is 1/29/08 The STL obs from that day are hard to beat. Temp in the 70's at noon and 28/light snow at 3:30 PM. Anyway, 00z Euro looks fairly similar at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 The STL obs from that day are hard to beat. Temp in the 70's at noon and 28/light snow at 3:30 PM. Anyway, 00z Euro looks fairly similar at 72 hours. Here we went from thunderstorms to blizzard conditions in a matter of hours. 0z Euro is a bit stronger at the sfc but not much difference from the 12z run or close to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 nothing to see here, wiwx. Did you enjoy our 5 mins and dusting of snow this evening? I'd be pretty excited in ssc's hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Having the NAM on your side beyond 6hrs is not a good thing. Not expecting anything here around the QC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Here we went from thunderstorms to blizzard conditions in a matter of hours. 0z Euro is a bit stronger at the sfc but not much difference from the 12z run or close to the NAM. Oh it is a improvement over the 12z run for sure. A couple of inches perhaps for N.IN into S.MI. .25+ line runs from near LAF/South Bend to Here/Lansing and Saginaw. 12z had basically squat and thus well to the se of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Oh it is a improvement over the 12z run for sure. A couple of inches perhaps for N.IN into S.MI. .25+ line runs from near LAF/South Bend to Here/Lansing and Saginaw. 12z had basically squat and thus well to the se of here. whoops my bad, what i get for glancing at maps after midnight. Now that I look at some more things it is better. Looks like LAF does indeed pick up a few inches of wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 whoops my bad, what i get for glancing at maps after midnight. Now that I look at some more things it is better. Looks like LAF does indeed pick up a few inches of wet snow. It's ensembles has been for the most part hanging tough the past few days with the sort of track/pecip the euro showed tonight. Yes the OP has been east of the ensembles for a few runs now. A number of them are a bit stronger with the surface low as well and take it into IN/OH/Erie. Will be interesting to see what they do tonight in about another hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 nothing to see here, wiwx. Did you enjoy our 5 mins and dusting of snow this evening? I'd be pretty excited in ssc's hood. Might as well lock in our new record low seasonal snowfall. Just not our year. Everything passing by on all sides or else fading as it approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Might as well lock in our new record low seasonal snowfall. Just not our year. Everything passing by on all sides or else fading as it approaches. Hope for another GHD miracle because outside that I don't see much hope. Missing our climo boat now in a nina and when the flip comes good luck outside of the **** end of a clipper or a late march storm if we're real behaved until then. Thank gawd there is no better city or state in the MW to live in or I'd be long gone to the new snow magnum of detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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