December 26-27 Potential Snow Event

Ottawa Blizzard · December 27, 2011

If expected weather was a based solely of what type of weather has been occurring up until a given point in time, then Jan 2-3, 1999 would have been an impossibility.

It'll get better. Believe me. This will not be a winter without winter. But you got to adjust your expectations. It's not Ottawa. But it will snow.

As for tomorrow, I agree with you to an extent, but only because of what I've seen on the hi-res WRF and WIVB's futurecast. Rain hangs on tighter than I would like per those models. Maybe more of a 1-2", rather than 2-3".

Good point!

Organizing Low · December 27, 2011

good luck folks, will be watching keenly for areas to my SW

Central Illinois · December 27, 2011

agreed.... best case scenario... but not likely IMO... lets keep our thinking to 1- MAYBE 2" of snow from this... anymore would be a bonus IMO

Yea im thinking areas east of I-55 and south of 74 in IL have best chance at 1-2"

dilly84 · December 27, 2011

Not looking very good for Central Ohio. Nam is very close. GFS dont look promising. 850 temps are good but sfc temps arent.

on_wx · December 27, 2011

Just checked the TWN forecast in days...2" for tomorrow. Praying for a miracle snow event.

GordoFabulous · December 27, 2011

The models have been trending wetter, and based on reports, it seems like the air is colder than forecast (slightly so, but as close as things are, it doesn't take much of an miss to the low side). Furthermore, the 2m charts on the NAM and GFS have been showing pockets of sub-freezing temps within the bubble of warmer air. I don't know much about upper air dynamics, but as a novice model reader, I see these trends, and I'm wondering if this might be a surprise event.

So, what are the chances that someone sees 6" out of this? Primarily, I'm thinking 20-30 miles either side of an Anderson, IN to Lima, OH line

baroclinic_instability · December 27, 2011

If you guys/gals want to put this into perspective, this is the FIRST negative tilt system we have seen all fall/winter across the plains/OV. This system is truly "threading the needle" here in what was a highly unfavorable large scale pattern. It is no coincidence in this ridiculously +AO pattern and crappy Pacific pattern that nearly every system the past two months has either occured with a closed GOM or ended up positive tilt/cutoff from the northern stream. Pretty crazy the first negative tilt system took until late December...and it was a triple phase of all storm types. Crazy.

There is your negative tilt. Good to see it after 2-3 months of junk.

Hoosier · December 27, 2011

Ya if I lived closer to MDW or Gary I'd really be curious as to how far northwest that gets.

MDW/GYY look just cold enough on the latest RUC for a switchover to all snow toward morning. Given the trends I think at least southern Cook could be looking at a slushy inch or two and wouldn't be surprised if Tim picks up a couple inches in Kankakee.

AppsRunner · December 27, 2011

I feel pessimistic... I'll say 1-3" here, more just west (basically the Nov. 30th heavy snow swath)

Chicago WX · December 27, 2011

MDW/GYY look just cold enough on the latest RUC for a switchover to all snow toward morning. Given the trends I think at least southern Cook could be looking at a slushy inch or two and wouldn't be surprised if Tim picks up a couple inches in Kankakee.

An inch would be a surprise here. Just a plain light rain here now.

L.B. LaForce · December 27, 2011

Yeah, the WV loop is pretty epic, you can really see that northern stream wave digging further south. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_timestamp.asp?data_folder=goes-west_goes-east/geir304&width=640&height=480

Also B_I, I'm assuming you say the 3 phase due to the two PV maxima over southern Ontario and southern Manitoba as well as the southern stream maxima?

Hoosier · December 27, 2011

An inch would be a surprise here. Just a plain light rain here now.

Changeover is probably several hours away but it looks like precip could linger until late morning.

Organizing Low · December 27, 2011

here is my forecast for NNY and Eastern ontario and SW quebec

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/29934-upstate-nynorth-country-into-winter-2011-12/page__view__findpost__p__1224317

baroclinic_instability · December 27, 2011

Yeah, the WV loop is pretty epic, you can really see that northern stream wave digging further south. http://rammb.cira.co...=640&height=480

Also B_I, I'm assuming you say the 3 phase due to the two PV maxima over southern Ontario and southern Manitoba as well as the southern stream maxima?

Well no, the big daddy persistent Polar Vortex north of the Hudson, the Pacific stream wave, and the southern stream anomaly.

L.B. LaForce · December 27, 2011

Well no, the big daddy persistent Polar Vortex north of the Hudson, the Pacific stream wave, and the southern stream anomaly.

Ahh, ok, now I see.

Hoosier · December 27, 2011

light snow now at BMI

KBMI 270519Z AUTO 19006KT 3SM -SN BR BKN001 OVC041 00/00 A2990 RMK AO2 BKN V SCT UPE07SNB07 P0001

Hoosier · December 27, 2011

Indy and Terre Haute now reporting light rain. 35/32 here.

jhamps10 · December 27, 2011

Indy and Terre Haute now reporting light rain. 35/32 here.

all rain in Flora... 38/35... starting to feel a bit worried about temps here....

kab2791 · December 27, 2011

00Z Euro....Joe will have the rest

DET

TUE 12Z 27-DEC   1.6    -1.0    1008      78     100    0.02     548     541    
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   0.9    -3.5    1001      99      99    0.27     538     537    
WED 00Z 28-DEC   1.3    -4.9    1001      94      97    0.12     532     532    
WED 06Z 28-DEC  -4.2    -7.9    1008      74      63    0.02     530     524

BTL

TUE 12Z 27-DEC   1.3    -1.3    1007      87      98    0.04     545     540    
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   1.2    -4.0    1002      97      93    0.22     536     535    
WED 00Z 28-DEC  -0.7    -5.9    1006      83      35    0.05     532     527    
WED 06Z 28-DEC  -4.3   -10.8    1012      68       6    0.00     536     526

LAF

TUE 12Z 27-DEC   0.8    -2.2    1007      98      99    0.21     547     541    
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   2.0    -3.1    1004      92      72    0.17     538     534    
WED 00Z 28-DEC   2.2    -6.7    1010      77      26    0.02     537     529    
WED 06Z 28-DEC  -4.0    -7.2    1016      66       8    0.00     545     532

YYZ:

TUE 12Z 27-DEC   2.0     3.1    1010      77      65    0.00     549     541    
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   1.1    -1.9    1003      97      99    0.13     541     539    
WED 00Z 28-DEC   0.6    -4.7     997      99      99    0.19     533     535    
WED 06Z 28-DEC   1.5    -5.5     997      90      98    0.16     527     530

Geos · December 27, 2011

35°/32° here on the NW fringe. Light rain currently.

Chicago Storm · December 27, 2011

0z ECMWF...

STL:

 
TUE 06Z 27-DEC   1.0	 0.0    1013	  99	  95    0.34	 555	 544   
TUE 12Z 27-DEC   1.2    -1.7    1009	  98	  95    0.14	 546	 538

DEC:

 
TUE 06Z 27-DEC   1.2	 0.5    1014	  97	  98    0.31	 555	 544   
TUE 12Z 27-DEC   0.8    -2.7    1008	  99	  98    0.22	 545	 539   
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   5.0    -4.4    1007	  67	  57    0.02	 538	 533   
WED 00Z 28-DEC   2.5    -8.4    1014	  63	  24    0.01	 543	 532

PAH:

 
TUE 06Z 27-DEC   3.7	 0.5    1011	  98	  98    0.46	 559	 550   
TUE 12Z 27-DEC   1.8    -2.8    1007	  99	 100    0.23	 545	 539   
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   5.8    -1.3    1011	  76	  46    0.21	 544	 536

IND:

 
TUE 12Z 27-DEC   0.6    -2.2    1007	  99	  88    0.32	 548	 543   
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   0.8    -3.8    1004	  98	  97    0.19	 538	 535   
WED 00Z 28-DEC   2.0    -5.6    1010	  89	  33    0.07	 537	 530   
WED 06Z 28-DEC  -1.5    -8.7    1016	  76	   6    0.01	 545	 533

LAF:

 
TUE 12Z 27-DEC   0.8    -2.2    1007	  98	  99    0.21	 547	 541   
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   2.0    -3.1    1004	  92	  72    0.17	 538	 534   
WED 00Z 28-DEC   2.2    -6.7    1010	  77	  26    0.02	 537	 529

VPZ:

 
TUE 06Z 27-DEC   2.7	 1.2    1013	  72	  94    0.01	 554	 543   
TUE 12Z 27-DEC   0.9    -2.8    1007	  99	  99    0.19	 545	 539   
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   3.2    -4.0    1003	  83	  62    0.08	 536	 534   
WED 00Z 28-DEC   1.5    -8.1    1010	  73	  42    0.04	 535	 527   
WED 06Z 28-DEC  -2.4   -10.6    1016	  62	  10    0.01	 542	 530

OKK:

 
TUE 12Z 27-DEC   0.8    -1.6    1007	  95	  94    0.19	 547	 541   
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   0.8    -3.8    1003	  99	  97    0.20	 537	 535   
WED 00Z 28-DEC   1.6    -6.1    1009	  91	  20    0.06	 536	 529   
WED 06Z 28-DEC  -2.8    -8.7    1015	  76	  10    0.01	 543	 531

FWA:

 
TUE 12Z 27-DEC   0.7    -1.5    1008	  94	  97    0.14	 547	 541   
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   0.8    -4.1    1002	  97	  98    0.21	 537	 536   
WED 00Z 28-DEC   1.7    -5.2    1006	  90	  40    0.10	 535	 530

HAO:

 
TUE 12Z 27-DEC   1.1    -0.9    1008	  99	  99    0.44	 551	 545   
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   2.9    -2.5    1001	  95	  96    0.17	 537	 537   
WED 00Z 28-DEC   1.6    -5.1    1007	  94	  95    0.13	 537	 531   
WED 06Z 28-DEC   0.4    -8.6    1014	  83	  12    0.01	 542	 531

DAY:

 
TUE 12Z 27-DEC   0.9    -1.1    1008	  99	 100    0.39	 551	 545   
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   1.4    -2.7    1001	  99	  99    0.21	 538	 537   
WED 00Z 28-DEC   0.9    -4.9    1006	  96	  98    0.14	 536	 532   
WED 06Z 28-DEC  -1.4    -8.6    1013	  82	  15    0.01	 540	 529

CMH:

 
TUE 12Z 27-DEC   1.1    -1.0    1009	  97	 100    0.17	 553	 546   
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   1.2    -1.3    1001	  99	  99    0.37	 540	 539   
WED 00Z 28-DEC   1.0    -4.7    1004	  95	  99    0.18	 535	 533   
WED 06Z 28-DEC  -1.0    -6.9    1010	  85	  45    0.04	 536	 527   
WED 12Z 28-DEC  -4.4   -11.1    1016	  78	   4    0.01	 541	 529

TDZ:

 
TUE 12Z 27-DEC   1.0    -0.1    1008	  94	  99    0.11	 548	 542   
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   0.8    -3.5    1001	  99	  98    0.31	 538	 538   
WED 00Z 28-DEC   1.0    -4.8    1002	  98	  99    0.11	 533	 532   
WED 06Z 28-DEC  -3.5    -7.5    1010	  75	  19    0.01	 533	 525

CLE:

 
TUE 12Z 27-DEC   2.2	 0.2    1009	  80	  92    0.04	 552	 544   
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   1.5    -2.6    1001	  96	  98    0.27	 542	 541   
WED 00Z 28-DEC   0.9    -4.6    1000	  98	 100    0.19	 533	 533   
WED 06Z 28-DEC  -1.1    -7.4    1006	  82	  80    0.10	 531	 526   
WED 12Z 28-DEC  -4.3   -13.9    1013	  73	   5    0.02	 535	 525   
WED 18Z 28-DEC  -3.8   -13.4    1017	  64	   5    0.01	 537	 524

BTL:

 
TUE 12Z 27-DEC   1.3    -1.3    1007	  87	  98    0.04	 545	 540   
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   1.2    -4.0    1002	  97	  93    0.22	 536	 535   
WED 00Z 28-DEC  -0.7    -5.9    1006	  83	  35    0.05	 532	 527

ADG:

 
TUE 12Z 27-DEC   1.0    -1.4    1008	  82	  98    0.05	 547	 541   
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   0.7    -4.0    1001	  96	  96    0.23	 537	 536   
WED 00Z 28-DEC   1.4    -5.2    1003	  95	  91    0.11	 533	 531   
WED 06Z 28-DEC  -4.4    -8.5    1010	  72	   5    0.01	 534	 526

DTW:

 
TUE 12Z 27-DEC   1.3    -0.9    1008	  81	  99    0.03	 547	 541   
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   0.8    -3.7    1001	  98	  99    0.26	 538	 537   
WED 00Z 28-DEC   1.3    -5.0    1001	  95	  97    0.11	 532	 531   
WED 06Z 28-DEC  -4.3    -8.6    1008	  73	  29    0.02	 531	 524

PHN:

 
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   0.8    -3.2    1001	  98	 100    0.21	 539	 537   
WED 00Z 28-DEC   1.0    -5.0    1000	  94	  98    0.14	 532	 532   
WED 06Z 28-DEC  -3.6    -8.5    1006	  76	  86    0.05	 528	 523   
WED 12Z 28-DEC  -7.8   -14.4    1013	  75	   6    0.01	 532	 522

YKF:

 
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   0.6    -2.4    1002	  96	  97    0.17	 541	 539   
WED 00Z 28-DEC   0.0    -4.9	 998	  99	  97    0.17	 532	 534   
WED 06Z 28-DEC   0.2    -5.4	 998	  93	  98    0.12	 528	 529   
WED 12Z 28-DEC  -8.3   -10.5    1007	  78	  85    0.02	 525	 519

YYZ:

 
TUE 18Z 27-DEC   1.1    -1.9    1003	  97	  99    0.13	 541	 539   
WED 00Z 28-DEC   0.6    -4.7	 997	  99	  99    0.19	 533	 535   
WED 06Z 28-DEC   1.5    -5.5	 997	  90	  98    0.16	 527	 530   
WED 12Z 28-DEC  -6.5    -9.2    1005	  75	  94    0.02	 524	 519

Hoosier · December 27, 2011

BMI can't make up its mind

KBMI 270638Z AUTO 22007KT 3SM -FZRA BR SCT001 OVC021 00/00 A2985 RMK AO2 UPB0558E0559B37E38FZRAB38SNB0557E0558B0559E37 P0007

Central Illinois · December 27, 2011

just went outside and its starting to change over to snow here a couples miles southeast of Decatur...

Hoosier · December 27, 2011

RUC sends a decent warm surge through central and eastern Indiana which could delay the changeover. Not saying this will verify but something to watch to see how well it matches up with trends in the next few hours.

Hoosier · December 27, 2011

Had about 15 minutes of rain. Now mostly snow but light.

Central Illinois · December 27, 2011

Through 17Z

B-Rent · December 27, 2011

Looks like all rain on the cameras here. 35.8F

Def RA here. Just looked at some better cameras with more light on the outside of the building. Interesting that BMG is reporting -SN

Ajdos · December 27, 2011

My temp is down to 31...DTX---Really?

000

FXUS63 KDTX 270843

AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

343 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2011

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COMPLEX COMBINATION OF FACTORS TO CONSIDER IN THE PRECIPITATION

FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE BOTTOM LINE BEING A LOW

IMPACT EVENT OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW FOR SE MICHIGAN. THE EARLY

MORNING ISSUANCE WILL PRESERVE THE FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE

1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH 3 BEING THE HIGH END IN A FEW LOCATIONS AND

THE 1 TO 2 MORE COMMON ON UNPAVED SURFACES WITH SLUSHY ACCUMULATION

ON THE ROADS.

THE KEY TO THE FORECAST IS WITH THE MILD SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER

TEMPERATURES IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITHIN THE TROUGHINESS BETWEEN

THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM

MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD AIR WILL BE BOTTLED UP

.

ALONG THE FRONT BY THE SLOWER MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE

OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM KICKS EASTWARD AND A FASTER PACE. THIS WILL LEAVE

PRECIPITATION TYPE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION TO BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY

THE MILD BOUNDARY LAYER AIR THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE

EVENT. OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING

INDICATE RAIN OCCURRING EVEN WHERE PRECIPITATION RATES ARE HIGH,

ALTHOUGH BRIGHT BANDING ON RADAR DOES SUGGEST SOME HEADWAY BEING

MADE ON WET BULB COOLING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE WET BULB COOLING

POTENTIAL IN THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE DOES REMAIN SUBSTANTIAL AS

SHOWN IN THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING AND THIS WILL HELP PRECIPITATION

BECOME A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT ONSET BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL

SNOW TOWARD THE PEAK OF THE EVENT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,

WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING, SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN

THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND THIS WILL CUT INTO THE SNOW ACCUMULATION

POTENTIAL EVEN AT TIMES WHEN PRECIPITATION RATES ARE HIGH.

THE SMALL AREAL COVERAGE AND LACK OF PERSISTENCE OF STRONGER FORCING

FOR HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES WILL ALSO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SNOW

ACCUMULATION AROUND THE REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT EARLY AND MID LEVEL

DEFORMATION LATER WILL BE THE MAIN MECHANISMS AT WORK FOR LIFT OVER

SE MICHIGAN. WITHIN THIS PATTERN, MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST

SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE SOME LOWER STABILITY ALOFT AT TIMES,

ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING, AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE

AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN LOOK GOOD WITH THE

DEPICTION OF INCREASED STABILITY THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WHILE THE

TROWAL PORTION OF THE OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND

EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES TO BECOME LESS

FREQUENT AND WITH LESS AREAL COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY BEFORE

SYNOPTIC FORCING WINDS DOWN COMPLETELY BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE

PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

jhamps10 · December 27, 2011

for some reason NWS still saying it's 37/35 but we are getting a rain/snow mixture here in Flora in the past few minutes...

B-Rent · December 27, 2011

From a friends Twitter, in Zionsville:

https://twitter.com/wxmanbill/statuses/151591525850161153

Member Statistics

December 26-27 Potential Snow Event

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