Jonger Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 3 inches Plus whatever comes Thursday could make it all worthwhile. I guess hope for max qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I call Toronto to London as the jackpot on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Fairly decent cut in QPF for here on the NAM. That could certainly be another issue. Blah. I mentioned the dry air before and you can see it reflected in the QPF fields. Also given the observed slow northward push of precip to our south it's probably safe to lean toward a later start time...maybe even 4 or 5 AM at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Getting sleet here in Marion, IL currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 HRRR and the RUC (especially the HRRR) look increasingly nice for the STL-LAF-TOL-DTW corridor, specifically the STL-LAF-TOL corridor. Also, the RUC has a sub-996mb low over Erie, PA. EDIT: Make that sub-994mb low over Erie, PA. Normally would be a perfect position for Detroit, but it's a strange one, the system that is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 re: dry air, here are the NAM forecast soundings for LAF valid 6z and 9z. Low level dry air very prevalent at 6z with the dry layer shrinking by 9z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I mentioned the dry air before and you can see it reflected in the QPF fields. Also given the observed slow northward push of precip to our south it's probably safe to lean toward a later start time...maybe even 4 or 5 AM at this rate. Yep, you did. Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Yep, you did. Good call. CMI has light rain and the NAM wasn't showing any precip there yet so it could be a case of the NAM going a little overboard. Still I'd be surprised with anything before 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 HRRR and the RUC (especially the HRRR) look increasingly nice for the STL-LAF-TOL-DTW corridor, specifically the STL-LAF-TOL corridor. through 13z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 through 13z To see that already just through 13z is encouraging to say the least. Can't believe how far NW the RUC is Re: Surface Low track. 998 over CMH practically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 37 here. Might be able to drop a degree or two in the next several hours but probably going to have to wait for precip to get the last few degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The latest RUC runs have also been showing a mesoscale band setting up in the same areas that were hit hard on November 30th, lol. Take it FWIW though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I like 2-4" (iso 5) for northeast Indiana...highest I-69 corridor near pivot. 00z DTX roab very dry so agree with later precip start time shown in the 00z NAM and latest HRRR progs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 3-4mb 3 hr pressure falls over srn IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 as of 15Z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 The northwestern fringe will be interesting to watch in your area. Models have been hinting that it could remain just warm enough for a rain/snow mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The northwestern fringe will be interesting to watch in your area. Models have been hinting that it could remain just warm enough for a rain/snow mix. Ya if I lived closer to MDW or Gary I'd really be curious as to how far northwest that gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 3-4mb 3 hr pressure falls over srn IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 HRRR runs are interesting as I'm in Kankakee right now. Not expecting anything of consequence though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 HRRR is interesting to say the least.... not expecting 3" here in Flora but hey I'd take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 as of 15Z HRRR I really hope that this pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Yeah definitely watch those pressure falls. This system is beginning to take on a very impressive look on WV sat...and with the GOM open things can change quick, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 And once again, incredible work by the ECMWF. It essentially had a very similar looking solution for 5 days straight. Incredible considering the pattern and storm configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 right at 10 o'clock the first unofficial reports coming in of sleet and some snowflakes mixing in parts of metro st louis... expect more reports to come in rapidly in the next few hours of things starting to change.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 HRRR is interesting to say the least.... not expecting 3" here in Flora but hey I'd take it! I really hope that this pans out. I agree. I think this is the best case scenario for our areas at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Just stepped outside, and it's sleeting here. Also noticed IND bumped totals up, back to 1-2" for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 RUC continues to look better and better. The low has shifted a hair further west yet and now it has a 2-3" band stretching well up into the central portions of Michigan now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Yeah definitely watch those pressure falls. This system is beginning to take on a very impressive look on WV sat...and with the GOM open things can change quick, you can say that again...the loop is even more awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I agree. I think this is the best case scenario for our areas at this point... agreed.... best case scenario... but not likely IMO... lets keep our thinking to 1- MAYBE 2" of snow from this... anymore would be a bonus IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.