Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 ARW still nutso :lmao: For kicks, I checked to see what good old Chad has...basically an inch for LAF and a jackpot of 4-6" just east of OKK. I think he's recycling his maps from the Nov 29th event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 John Dee's call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 John Dee's call I'll take 3-4 and run. Believe it or not I think that will put us at about average for december. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 FWIW...24 hr RUC is pretty much all rain for everybody through 16z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 ARW still nutso Wow! lolz, Kentland, IN 10"?! I don't think so. LOT is only forecasting 1" for the IN counties in their forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Chatting with a met from IWX and he's thinking a solid 3", with possibly 4" for FWA. This bodes well for those to the northeast (DTX, TOL, CLE, etc.). There was no discussion of how much of that would be left 24 hrs later though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Oh my... Don't look at GRR's discussion preview. Yuck!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Oh my... Don't look at GRR's discussion preview. Yuck!!! Meh, what are you worried about? That area was never expected to get more than an inch or so. You're looking pretty good in Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Oh my... Don't look at GRR's discussion preview. Yuck!!! A few days ago this was not even an event. Slushy 1" is better then nothing. They are also likely being cautous since the models don't even agree yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 :lmao: For kicks, I checked to see what good old Chad has...basically an inch for LAF and a jackpot of 4-6" just east of OKK. I think he's recycling his maps from the Nov 29th event. IND sorta agrees with Chad except no real jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 18z NAM has .55" liquid equivalent falling as snow with surface temperatures at or below 32 degrees from 12z on at MIE (Muncie). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 From looking at weather model data for this pending storm, I have decided to take my hand at forecasting snow accumulations. Either I am going to be right. On the other hand, I could look stupid on this. Never hurts to try, though :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 IND sorta agrees with Chad except no real jackpot. Jackpot-less storm evidently. Zone forecast has 1" total. I'll take the over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I'm not going to get excited for this one. Environment Canada already calls out the lakeshore areas of seeing almost zero snowfall accumulation. Whatever YYZ is predicted to get I will cut those amounts in half. I'm honestly not expecting much out of this in Toronto. Mainly rain, followed by some sloppy wet snow in the evening that may accumulate on grassy surfaces. This is just not Toronto's winter. Never really is mind you but hisi s bad even by Toronto standards. Driving uto Muskoa late Wednesday morning for an afternoon. Hope the salters have been out by then, particularly if there's a flash freeze. I've away wantd to see Muskoa in the winer wi 6" likley up there out of this, the fresh snow shuld look pristine in the Wednesday sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Jackpot-less storm evidently. Zone forecast has 1" total. I'll take the over. Some indications of pesky low level dry air showing up. Not really expecting much precip before 3 AM but that's not a bad thing as it gives us plenty of time to cool off from our 47 degree high. Then maybe 1-2 hours of light rain at most before we change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 18z NAM has .55" liquid equivalent falling as snow with surface temperatures at or below 32 degrees from 12z on at MIE (Muncie). looks like sfc temps are 34/35 for most of the event.. TUE 1A 27-DEC 1.3 3.2 1015 93 53 0.00 559 547 TUE 7A 27-DEC 1.2 -1.5 1007 99 98 0.18 550 544 TUE 1P 27-DEC 1.7 -3.2 1002 94 87 0.23 540 538 TUE 7P 27-DEC 1.0 -6.7 1008 94 80 0.07 535 528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I'm honestly not expecting much out of this in Toronto. Mainly rain, followed by some sloppy wet snow in the evening that may accumulate on grassy surfaces. This is just not Toronto's winter. Never really is mind you but hisi s bad even by Toronto standards. Driving uto Muskoa late Wednesday morning for an afternoon. Hope the salters have been out by then, particularly if there's a flash freeze. I've away wantd to see Muskoa in the winer wi 6" likley up there out of this, the fresh snow shuld look pristine in the Wednesday sunshine. This stuff exemplifies why you were nominated a WOTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 looks like sfc temps are 34/35 for most of the event.. TUE 1A 27-DEC 1.3 3.2 1015 93 53 0.00 559 547 TUE 7A 27-DEC 1.2 -1.5 1007 99 98 0.18 550 544 TUE 1P 27-DEC 1.7 -3.2 1002 94 87 0.23 540 538 TUE 7P 27-DEC 1.0 -6.7 1008 94 80 0.07 535 528 I guess this might sound weenie-ish, but those are obviously 6 hour temps...but it's entirely possible that temps between 7A and 1P are cooler, or closer to freezing...at the time when it's precipitating its "heaviest". That's what happened during the Nov 29th storm. Regardless, as we all know, it's not a pretty storm what with marginal temps that will limit its potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 This stuff exemplifies why you were nominated a WOTY. You mean Toronto doesn't have the winter climate of Memphis, TN? I mean that's the impression I get from Ottawa Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 I guess this might sound weenie-ish, but those are obviously 6 hour temps...but it's entirely possible that temps between 7A and 1P are cooler, or closer to freezing...at the time when it's precipitating its "heaviest". I agree with this. This isn't a super long event and 3 hour periods are key. The 18z NAM raw output does show 2m temps around 32/33 for Muncie at times. Also have to remember that there may be very slight variations in data depending on what site is used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 You mean Toronto doesn't have the winter climate of Memphis, TN? I mean that's the impression I get from Ottawa Blizzard. Judging from the way this winter has been going, maybe it does...for this year. I guess everything is relative. Compared to Ottawa, only four hours up the road, Toronto is practically tropical in the winter. The overnight lows can sometimes be warmer than Ottawa's daytime highs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Nice rain band forming to the west, more moisture than projected which has been a common theme this year w/ the few systems we've gotten. If temps drop a bit more we might be able to get a mix, 38.5 °F on top of the met building currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Nice rain band forming to the west, more moisture than projected which has been a common theme this year w/ the few systems we've gotten. If temps drop a bit more we might be able to get a mix, 38.5 °F on top of the met building currently. UA temps are too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Judging from the way this winter has been going, maybe it does...for this year. I guess everything is relative. Compared to Ottawa, only four hours up the road, Toronto is practically tropical in the winter. The overnight lows can sometimes be warmer than Ottawa's daytime highs! If expected weather was a based solely of what type of weather has been occurring up until a given point in time, then Jan 2-3, 1999 would have been an impossibility. It'll get better. Believe me. This will not be a winter without winter. But you got to adjust your expectations. It's not Ottawa. But it will snow. As for tomorrow, I agree with you to an extent, but only because of what I've seen on the hi-res WRF and WIVB's futurecast. Rain hangs on tighter than I would like per those models. Maybe more of a 1-2", rather than 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 UA temps are too warm. I hadn't looked yet, true story. The critical thickness lines are up in Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Its one of those rare times when model qpf is very uniform (0.35-0.40") but imo this system still has high bust potential here. I think 1-3" is an excellent call for SE MI. If we get a steady but light snow falling all day and temps hover 33-35F, we may be looking at a slushy inch or even less of accumulation....on the flip side if rates are good, the boundary layer is cooled enough to hold temps at 31-33F, we could see a solid 4". Right now Ill go with the middle ground and say 2". Looks like it may briefly warm after the snow stops before temps plummet and whatever snow we have will freeze so at least the sleds/saucers can be taken for a trip or two down the hill lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Better moisture and better banding looks to stay southeast of here into ohio. Don't see much accumulating tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Dayum, 0z NAM actually gets a 996 close to BUF. Furthest west yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Fairly decent cut in QPF for here on the NAM. That could certainly be another issue. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Better moisture and better banding looks to stay southeast of here into ohio. Don't see much accumulating tomorrow. There will be a good gradient tomorrow. This region has some old fashion dry air to overcome. 1-3 is a good call although things can change on a dime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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