dryslot Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 For once I hope the NW trend accelerstes and sends the rain to North Dakota (sorry guys) I'm with you on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Amazing how the Euro nailed this track from so far out.. It has barely waffled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 The winds might be the most interesting part of this storm. And what the heck is isallobaric? CONSEQUENTIALLY STRONG ONSHORE LOW-MID LVL FLOW /AIDED BY AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ RESULTS IN LOW-MID LVL CONVERGENCE OF A VERY RICH AND MOIST WARM CONVEYOR BELT WITH VALUES OF 320K AT H85-H7 BETWEEN 3-6Z ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 The winds might be the most interesting part of this storm. And what the heck is isallobaric? CONSEQUENTIALLY STRONG ONSHORE LOW-MID LVL FLOW /AIDED BY AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ RESULTS IN LOW-MID LVL CONVERGENCE OF A VERY RICH AND MOIST WARM CONVEYOR BELT WITH VALUES OF 320K AT H85-H7 BETWEEN 3-6Z ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND Isallobaric Indications Lows tend to move toward the center of the largest 3-hour pressure falls. This is normally the point where the maximum warm air advection is occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Thanks 'slot! (see what I did there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Thanks 'slot! (see what I did there) lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 The isallobaric wind is related to the ageostrophic wind as it is the instantaneous response to pressure rises of falls that are occurring. It's easy to think of them as the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 yep the new RGEM tracks this right over or maybe even slightly west of montreal i had a feeling this was coming once i saw the euro winding up a storm over western new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 This is incredible, new nam even further west, this is a total disaster for the entire New England ski industry, right smack dab in the middle of xmas week. This may ensure that MRG will not open until 1/10, simply amazing. I am stoked for some hydro issues as well as potential wind damage. Low 50s in Galveston right now. Same storm. Heading out later today to Mexico where it should be warmer but still a bit unsettled the first 3-4 days. The NAM is a pretty vicious rain. I guess we need to realize until the pattern changes models will start colder and end warm. Not a good pattern as all as the PROS keep saying. Litch what's the latest MRG has opened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 There is only one option left for Pete since he has his AK friend here.... Tremblant. 12Z runs hit them hard..powder FTW. Even Whiteface is a mixed bag, but they may manage some backside stuff. This is incredible, new nam even further west, this is a total disaster for the entire New England ski industry, right smack dab in the middle of xmas week. This may ensure that MRG will not open until 1/10, simply amazing. I am stoked for some hydro issues as well as potential wind damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Low 50s in Galveston right now. Same storm. Heading out later today to Mexico where it should be warmer but still a bit unsettled the first 3-4 days. The NAM is a pretty vicious rain. I guess we need to realize until the pattern changes models will start colder and end warm. Not a good pattern as all as the PROS keep saying. Litch what's the latest MRG has opened? Would they ever just scrap the season? I'm talking if we are still in the same position come 2/1. Maybe 2/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Latest 12z GFS is awful for us. Nice phased bomb over Utica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Latest 12z GFS is awful for us. Nice phased bomb over Utica. Its been awful and trending worse, I hope it ends up in michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I'd like to see the guys in BUF and adjacent Ontario do well. They haven't have a good synoptic snowstorm in awhile. It's done for us now so I'll enjoy watching the west side of our Upstate region do well. Its been awful and trending worse, I hope it ends up in michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 I'd like to see the guys in BUF and adjacent Ontario do well. They haven't have a good synoptic snowstorm in awhile. It's done for us now so I'll enjoy watching the west side of our Upstate region do well. Let them have one for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 People in SNE are still looking at this and hoping? This was over days ago. Accept it and look forward to the clipper train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 People in SNE are still looking at this and hoping? This was over days ago. Accept it and look forward to the clipper train. I think we tied the noose a long time ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Would they ever just scrap the season? I'm talking if we are still in the same position come 2/1. Maybe 2/15. LOL, no. You think I'm a freak, you should meet my friends in the office there. They will never say die. Why would you guys ask Joe about MRG, I don't think he even skis.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I think we tied the noose a long time ago. I'm just hoping this turns into a mega bomb that helps to shake things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Again ... no one should be surprised or disappointed/negative by or about this system this week. No moods should be touched. If so, you have your self to blame for (yet again) allowing an obsession with snow drive your psyche. There was very little probability - and still is quite low - for a colder profile for this system. Frankly, it was never much of a "Miller B" for that matter but that's beside the point. As Will and I discussed days ago ... the teleconnectors didn't support the GFS notions back then. The Euro came out smartly with a warm run with enough lead time to fit into the spread more appropriately. Folks' expectations should have been turned toward enjoying xmass, NFL, NHL, politics ....whatever it is that you do when you are not involved here, but crooning over how awful the GFS run is ..it's all a striking waste of time. There is a so-so signal for Jan 1-5th. If I were you and had control over my passions, I would focus on that period of time. ...and yes, there might be something New Year's eve, but the better signal is around the former timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 lol...no big pattern change...so why would anyone expect the storm track to suddenly become favorable...rinse, wash, repeat...i'm just here to keep an eye on how bad it will be for my upcoming mini ski trip the 28-29th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 LOL, no. You think I'm a freak, you should meet my friends in the office there. They will never say die. Why would you guys ask Joe about MRG, I don't think he even skis.lol There you go, trolling again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 lol...no big pattern change...so why would anyone expect the storm track to suddenly become favorable...rinse, wash, repeat...i'm just here to keep an eye on how bad it will be for my upcoming mini ski trip the 28-29th... ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Yeah I should have given up on this about 36 hours ago, but being further west there seemed to be some possibility. Anyway..I didn't let it dominate my Christmas activities. Again ... no one should be surprised or disappointed/negative by or about this system this week. No moods should be touched. If so, you have your self to blame for (yet again) allowing an obsession with snow drive your psyche. There was very little probability - and still is quite low - for a colder profile for this system. Frankly, it was never much of a "Miller B" for that matter but that's beside the point. As Will and I discussed days ago ... the teleconnectors didn't support the GFS notions back then. The Euro came out smartly with a warm run with enough lead time to fit into the spread more appropriately. Folks' expectations should have been turned toward enjoying xmass, NFL, NHL, politics ....whatever it is that you do when you are not involved here, but crooning over how awful the GFS run is ..it's all a striking waste of time. There is a so-so signal for Jan 1-5th. If I were you and had control over my passions, I would focus on that period of time. ...and yes, there might be something New Year's eve, but the better signal is around the former timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 There you go, trolling again. It's not trolling. It's a serious question. How would Joe (a good friend by the way) know the specifics about MRG. On the other hand I speak with Eric almost everyday and have up to the minute reports. Back off Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I'd like to see the guys in BUF and adjacent Ontario do well. They haven't have a good synoptic snowstorm in awhile. It's done for us now so I'll enjoy watching the west side of our Upstate region do well. Thanks for the well wishes. Last storm of over 8" here was back on March 7-8, 2008. Three whole winters and counting without an 8"er or more. And I don't get the benefit of LES which compounds the problem. I really found that earlier discussion between Will and Nick instructive. We really are a synoptic wasteland over here just west of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 just looked at the GFS thank god i am not in montreal AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Euro is a nice hit from OGS/MSS toward Joliette and around YQB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Does anyone have an idea on approximate liquid QpF for NNE? It's sounding like this thing is heading so far west we might be spared the most damaging hot liquid magma rains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Euro is a nice hit from OGS/MSS toward Joliette and around YQB. not sure if u r interested, but this was my post in the upstate forum that easterly difference between the euro and the GFS is the difference between the jackpot being near CYOW or near CYUL......ECM keep MTL mostly snow maybe some mix at the height, but the heaviest frozen qpf tomorrow passes along the downtown itself as well as N of the city, but less S of the champlain bridge with more mix concerns on the south burbs. its razor close. i would think you can nudge that a bit NW as per usual with a deepening storm, so as is stands right now i would say heaviest axis of snow to fall east of ottawa but N of montreal, from KMSS/cornwall to hawkesbury, ontario to st. jerome/tremblant QC axis.....based on the 12z runs, i think 8-16 inches /20-40cm of snow is possible in this region if everything breaks right. we'll have to watch for a nudging of that axis in future model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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