snowNH Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 lol...18z GEFS over the benchmark I was just going to post that... It says a lot that the GEFS are WAY southeast of the OP... Huge red flag that this baby is coming southeast. I'm surprised there isn't a lot more chatter about those. Well, I guess it is XMAS eve... Happy Drinking Tonight Everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Hey, let's have another miracle 00z Euro run tonight, eh? Last year's was EPIC 1500 users online at 1:15am Christmas morning!! http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/5739-december-26-27-storm-threat/page__hl__miracle__st__1645 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 I would like the 18z gefs to verify verbatim. That is all. Merry christmas peeps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Just noticed, FWIW, 15z SREFs shifted SE, with the southern s/w taking much longer to eject east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Just noticed, FWIW, 15z SREFs shifted SE, with the southern s/w taking much longer to eject east It gon snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Would GEFS be snow for everyone? That would be quite the surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 This would be a coup for the GFS...which would be interesting. I keep getting a feeling that this pattern is going to flip hard and fast in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 The -4c line is a bit closer to the center of the low than last time. NNE at least has a chance. The low needs to bomb wuicker to get the cold air into the precip shield quicker. However if it bombs too far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 This would be a coup for the GFS...which would be interesting. I keep getting a feeling that this pattern is going to flip hard and fast in the right direction. Didn't the GFS lead the way the last two storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Didn't the GFS lead the way the last two storms? Thats what I was thinking.... Gotta see what our in house mets say before getting super interested over here, but you are pretty far west. Circle of Trust keeping the faith in these trying times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 the 18z nam gives Buffalo 6-9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Hey, let's have another miracle 00z Euro run tonight, eh? Last year's was EPIC 1500 users online at 1:15am Christmas morning!! http://www.americanw...racle__st__1645 thanks for that Sam....that was a great read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 00z NAM a bit slower with southern s/w. Looks like no monster phase to pull this west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 00z NAM is pretty much the perfect track for BUF given the pattern but can we cool enough during the storm to get decent accumulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 Everyone poo poo this thread when i started it that it was rain all the way to marquette.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Everyone poo poo this thread when i started it that it was rain all the way to marquette.........lol haters Unless GC or ORH or Mt. Tolland is getting snow it's a non-event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 haters Unless GC or ORH or Mt. Tolland is getting snow it's a non-event You have been transformed...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 haters Unless GC or ORH or Mt. Tolland is getting snow it's a non-event WTF? If you weren't going to be ripping up the bunny slope at VT's finest resorts next week you'd be tucked in bed with visions of burly men hanging their arms out of their Tundras. But glad you're giving analysis, no matter the ulterior motives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 WTF? If you weren't going to be ripping up the bunny slope at VT's finest resorts next week you'd be tucked in bed with visions of burly men hanging their arms out of their Tundras. But glad you're giving analysis, no matter the ulterior motives. lol I normally make it up to VT 4 or 5 times a winter... so if storms plan around me I'll provide more detailed analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 What did the nam actually show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 lol I normally make it up to VT 4 or 5 times a winter... so if storms plan around me I'll provide more detailed analysis lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 What did the nam actually show? You getting snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 What did the nam actually show? Good hit for you Close for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 NH VT ME upstate NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 You getting snow no way... really? So the GFS and GEFS and ECens were giving us snow too Jeff? nfw I've been reading the nyc boxing day thread for the last hour lol...so y weenie goggles are on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Good hit for you Close for me Yeah comes close to being decent. It's all about the timing/location of the phasing and interaction with the northern stream. Hard to say for sure exactly what happens but obviously we have the 00z NAM has an unphased outlier and the 12z Euro as the super-phased outlier. Most of the ensembles (Euro and GEFS) along with the 18z GFS are in the middle with a somewhat later phase but enough to be good to northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Yeah comes close to being decent. It's all about the timing/location of the phasing and interaction with the northern stream. Hard to say for sure exactly what happens but obviously we have the 00z NAM has an unphased outlier and the 12z Euro as the super-phased outlier. Most of the ensembles (Euro and GEFS) along with the 18z GFS are in the middle with a somewhat later phase but enough to be good to northern areas. Well, it is at 78-84 hours, nutty NAM But glad to see some agreement in the models. Better than temp talk Hope CNE/NNE gets nailed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 WOW, Merry Christmas, what a feast.....just got done reading the kids the Night Before Christmas, they are tucked in. Santa and Mrs Claus enjoying a break then lots of toys to put out.....the 24 yr single malt helps sippy sip sip........sippy sip sip. AWT, this is becoming fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 so now we await our new friend the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 WOW, Merry Christmas, what a feast.....just got done reading the kids the Night Before Christmas, they are tucked in. Santa and Mrs Claus enjoying a break then lots of toys to put out.....the 24 yr single malt helps sippy sip sip........sippy sip sip. AWT, this is becoming fun. Merry Christmas Hope Santa is a few days late for us weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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