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Christmas (Sunday) Night - Windex Potential


Tropopause_Fold

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Nam has a torched bl.

No doubt a problem with the south winds as WAA increases before the lows passing... still actually below freezing at 925... thats expected to change looking at meso analysis... Temps are as high as 2C in upstate NY near SYR... the boundary looks to be right around rochester right now... some echos firing.. If we can get intense enough lift hopefully the LL warmth can be overcome by colder air working in aloft with this vigorous s/w. I don't see why interior elevations can't already have this locked in, still very concerned for coastal areas outside of NNE.

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Looks like coastal maine cashing in a touch.. PWM right on the edge of cold air and WAA reporting light snow.

The boundary between the cold interior and warmer air from over the waters is laying just inland from the coast. A weak wave or meso-low looks like it has formed and is enhancing precip just northeast of Portland. You can see the character of the radar echoes supporting this. WAA, convective looking cells feeding into the frontal boundary, then becoming smoothed, more "classic" snowfall looking just inland. Reports of 4" as of an hour ago, so should see a couple locations come in near 6" when it is all said and done.

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The main "line" is approaching my old stomping grounds in Ithaca NY...theres some stuff out ahead of it though in E NY and W MA, but doesn't appear to be reaching the ground very well.

We'll have to see if there is enough omega to compensate for the marginal low level lapse rates.

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Pete... get up here now! Mansfield is going off... still snowing out there. Tomorrow's going to be sweet.

My AK buddy and I might be up tomorrow or Tuesday. Unfortunately, I'm fighting a bad cold. If that doesn't work out we are thinking Whiteface or Stowe late week. My buddy wants to do some Ice climbing either in the 'Dacks or the NE kingdom near Lake Wiloughby. I'm ppounding Vitamin C and tea w/honey as I want to be good ASAP. Looks sweet Scott. Hey, have you had problems with premature ejectulation with the Dukes when you're in the bumps?

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My AK buddy and I might be up tomorrow or Tuesday. Unfortunately, I'm fighting a bad cold. If that doesn't work out we are thinking Whiteface or Stowe late week. My buddy wants to do some Ice climbing either in the 'Dacks or the NE kingdom near Lake Wiloughby. I'm ppounding Vitamin C and tea w/honey as I want to be good ASAP. Looks sweet Scott. Hey, have you had problems with premature ejectulation with the Dukes when you're in the bumps?

Nope... never had any problem with the Dukes. The Fritschi Freerides on the other hand....

I love our NWS guys/gals at BTV. I was emailing back and forth with Brooke Taber today and he threw us a bone in the AFD. The folks at WFO BTV are great and always plug the ski areas and/or outdoor recreation industry with winter weather nuggets. This is just a great, comprehensive AFD too:

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 346 PM EST SUNDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN

OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WITH SEVERAL SPOTTER REPORTS OF 1 TO

3 INCHES ACRS THE MTNS. THESE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS WL CONT

TONIGHT...AS S/W ENERGY APPROACHES OUR CWA. WATER VAPOR THIS AFTN

SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LVL TROF MOVING ACRS

THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WL MOVE ACRS OUR CWA

TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. THE COMBINATION OF SOME

850 TO 500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FROM 5H VORT AND LFQ OF 100 KNT

JET STREAM...WL INTERACT WITH 850 TO 700MB MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A

LIGHT SNOW EVENT ACRS THE NORTH COUNTRY. GIVEN...SOUTHWEST FLW

AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION

ACRS THE CPV...HOWEVER AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AROUND 06Z...SOME

LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE CPV.

MEANWHILE...ACRS THE DACKS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL

GREENS...ANTICIPATING A GENERAL 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. BTV 4KM

SHOWS 0.66" OF QPF AT JAY PEAK BY 15Z MONDAY...WHILE NAM HAS

0.28". WL USE COMPROMISE AND FORECAST 4 OR 5" FOR JAY PEAK TO

STOWE TO SUGARBUSH BY MID-MORNING MONDAY...WITH A DUSTING TO 2

INCHES ELSEWHERE. SOUNDINGS/VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DEEP

LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT QUICKLY DISSIPATING BY 15Z...WITH SOME

BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST EXPECTED BY MON AFTN. IN

ADDITION...SOUNDINGS SHOW NO RH IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH

REGION BY 12Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING STEADIER/HEAVIER SNOW ACRS THE

MTNS...TAPERING TO FLURRIES. TEMPS TONIGHT WL REMAIN IN THE 20S

MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOUTH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW AFT MIDNIGHT.

PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -4C AND -7C SUPPORT HIGHS BACK IN THE M20S

TO M30S

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The main "line" is approaching my old stomping grounds in Ithaca NY...theres some stuff out ahead of it though in E NY and W MA, but doesn't appear to be reaching the ground very well.

We'll have to see if there is enough omega to compensate for the marginal low level lapse rates.

I actually may have lied...the main line could be near BUF right now...that is a big explosion on radar there.

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I see that band passing ITH on radar...very little with it from ITH south.

The first batch that passed through here may be reaching the ground over in the Berkshires/southern Greens, but it was virga here...or maybe I missed a dozen flakes.

I actually may have lied...the main line could be near BUF right now...that is a big explosion on radar there.

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You can see partly why WWA's went up across northern ME...really sice area of sfc frontogenesis setting up across eastern sections. Steeper ML/LL lapse rates too off to our west which hopefully advect in just ahead of the main energy.

sfnt.gif?1324858293245

ML lapse rates have been steepening over the course of the past 6-HR but not the LL lapse rates

laps_chg_sf.gif?1324858339212

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Nope... never had any problem with the Dukes. The Fritschi Freerides on the other hand....

I love our NWS guys/gals at BTV. I was emailing back and forth with Brooke Taber today and he threw us a bone in the AFD. The folks at WFO BTV are great and always plug the ski areas and/or outdoor recreation industry with winter weather nuggets. This is just a great, comprehensive AFD too:

Nice PF, yeah, the Fritschi were easy to over power. I've skied the Dukes but only in mogul free AK. About to buy them but having a concern they won't hold up to the torque in the bottom of troughs. Glad to hear it. Hope you get blitzed tonight. Hope I get it too!!

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Moisture is building on radar again... however I have noticed that snow growth does not seem to be quite as good as earlier. Flakes got decent bit smaller so I wonder if WAA has finally changed the low level temp profile enough so its not in the best snow growth... most of this lift is low level orographic in nature right now (and has been all day).

A buddy of mine in Burlington says there is absolutely nothing on the ground. None of the echos over BTV are reaching the ground from downsloping.

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The LL flow out of the SW is really starting to torch the boundary layer...right now we can still support snow but I won't be surprised to see temps continue to rise before the stuff later tonight gets here...could be some mixing or even rain as it first moves in.

I have to imagine the stuff just entering N ORH county is def reaching the ground as its 30+ dbz now...its been strengthening rapidly the last 20 minutes.

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The LL flow out of the SW is really starting to torch the boundary layer...right now we can still support snow but I won't be surprised to see temps continue to rise before the stuff later tonight gets here...could be some mixing or even rain as it first moves in.

I have to imagine the stuff just entering N ORH county is def reaching the ground as its 30+ dbz now...its been strengthening rapidly the last 20 minutes.

Any chance those returns out near Buffalo make it here?

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Any chance those returns out near Buffalo make it here?

Well that is the stuff that may make it here between 05z and 08z according to most guidance...I'm not sure if its going to be that exact set of returns as the evolution slightly changes as it moves east, but in general it should be from that set of forcing.

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Well that is the stuff that may make it here between 05z and 08z according to most guidance...I'm not sure if its going to be that exact set of returns as the evolution slightly changes as it moves east, but in general it should be from that set of forcing.

some of that stuff is probably being enhanced slightly by the lake and the upslope on the hills east and southeast of BUF.

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