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Christmas (Sunday) Night - Windex Potential


Tropopause_Fold

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Wow...just saw the NAM indices...

TTs > 58C, H5-H7 lapse rates of > 8C/km, moist column, and LIs spike 17C here in 12hrs.

Convective indices are pretty crazy. Even some weak sfc-based instability developing across parts of the region as well with a moistening column and CAA aloft coupled with steepening lapse rates.

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The WINDEX parameters still look pretty good for later...the only thing I'd like to see a bit better is the low level lapse rates. They are somewhat marginal, but with a bit of omega from the PVA, those can be compensated for and the deeper RH into the mid-levels where the lapse rates are much stronger...so if the omega can punch into that ML setup, we could see some heavier squalls.

Usually the LL lapse rates help that, but if they are marginal, you like to have a low level forcing to help get that omega higher.

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