dryslot Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I wonder why that is bring35-50% pops into the Lakes Region but seemingly screwing over Jeff? Is there some some of inverted trough from se to nw from the coast? Lower probs for you than me Eric? I get downsloped.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I get downsloped.. are the winds nw? cuz we get downsloped on those winds too...that's why I'm wondering if there is some sort of inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Not much to see for anyone in SNE. Maybe up north you guys enjoy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I'll be in southern maine tmrw...might have a better chance to see something there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Not much to see for anyone in SNE. Maybe up north you guys enjoy it Not really expecting much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 are the winds nw? cuz we get downsloped on those winds too...that's why I'm wondering if there is some sort of inverted trough. Our downslope is bigger than your downslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 are the winds nw? cuz we get downsloped on those winds too...that's why I'm wondering if there is some sort of inverted trough. Well it looks like it trys to develop east of here so that maybe the reason also, It looks better on the gfs but i think the nam and euro would handle this better, I am not expecting much if any snow at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I'll be in southern maine tmrw...might have a better chance to see something there. You may Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I wonder why that is bring35-50% pops into the Lakes Region but seemingly screwing over Jeff? Is there some some of inverted trough from se to nw from the coast? Lower probs for you than me Eric? It's just hit or miss with the models at this point. The next runs may reverse that.The 12z GFS WINDEX params are solid like the NAM. Plenty of low level moisture, TT's near 55C, mid level lapse rates around 7.5C/km, and LI's jump over 10C in 12hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 It's just hit or miss with the models at this point. The next runs may reverse that. The 12z GFS WINDEX params are solid like the NAM. Plenty of low level moisture, TT's near 55C, mid level lapse rates around 7.5C/km, and LI's jump over 10C in 12hrs. I think more people than not get at least a light coating. Like you said, windex params look good. Plus, I wouldn't be surprised if this had a bit of a brief stratiform look early on before any squally/showery stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 You may But I'll be at the coast south of Portland so I probably won't see much...maybe rain/mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I think more people than not get at least a light coating. Like you said, windex params look good. Plus, I wouldn't be surprised if this had a bit of a brief stratiform look early on before any squally/showery stuff. much more fun than squalls in between sunny periods. Do you mean though that we get a period of some steady light to moderate snow before the squalls/showers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Our downslope is bigger than your downslope. I'm okay with that and it doesn't threaten my masculinity at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 much more fun than squalls in between sunny periods. Do you mean though that we get a period of some steady light to moderate snow before the squalls/showers? I think there will be a period of light snow. The forcing isn't strong enough to go 1/2 mile moderate outside of snow showers/squalls. But I do think that later on in the afternoon you will see a 1-2 hr period of steady light snow...with the best chances to your northeast. Not saying there will be a solid wall to wall shield of echoes...but less of a showery appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I think more people than not get at least a light coating. Like you said, windex params look good. Plus, I wouldn't be surprised if this had a bit of a brief stratiform look early on before any squally/showery stuff. Make it to the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Make it to the coast? the coast of ME and NH yes...not sure about BOS b/c best WAA is north. Down your way, BL temps may be an issue too. I think your best potential will be in squalls a few hours either side of midnight with that potent short wave trough moving through. That's where I think SNE gets their coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I think more people than not get at least a light coating. Like you said, windex params look good. Plus, I wouldn't be surprised if this had a bit of a brief stratiform look early on before any squally/showery stuff. Yeah, I agree. Has a fairly classic windex look. Elevated interior especially C/NNE probably in for a Xmas surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 24, 2011 Author Share Posted December 24, 2011 the coast of ME and NH yes...not sure about BOS b/c best WAA is north. Down your way, BL temps may be an issue too. I think your best potential will be in squalls a few hours either side of midnight with that potent short wave trough moving through. That's where I think SNE gets their coating. it would be a nice SNE clipper if it were at a lower latitude. it's a potent system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Yeah, I agree. Has a fairly classic windex look. Elevated interior especially C/NNE probably in for a Xmas surprise. If the squalls do materialize xmas night...that raises a flag for holiday travel concerns. Not just because of brief squalls...but the potential exists down your way for temps to go from mid 30s to freezing or below rather quickly...so if it snows...then you get ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 If the squalls do materialize xmas night...that raises a flag for holiday travel concerns. Not just because of brief squalls...but the potential exists down your way for temps to go from mid 30s to freezing or below rather quickly...so if it snows...then you get ice. Yup... timing looks good for a flash freeze. I think there's a better chance of that northeast of here though closer to the best forcing. I'm not sure we'll get much of anything in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Yup... timing looks good for a flash freeze. I think there's a better chance of that northeast of here though closer to the best forcing. I'm not sure we'll get much of anything in CT. The WAA and synoptic forcing looks better for northern NE, but maybe we can get a band or two of squalls to come through near midnight with fropa. Obviously snow squalls are fickle, but the numbers are impressive to me, and also...the look on the soundings. Good PVA too. Although, I didn't look down in CT..just BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Yup... timing looks good for a flash freeze. I think there's a better chance of that northeast of here though closer to the best forcing. I'm not sure we'll get much of anything in CT. I think you may be surprised. That short wave is pretty potent. YOu are in a good instability axis too (as far as TT's go - near 60!). I think you score some good squalls during the late evening. I could even see eastern LI getting in on it (pending LL temps). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I think you may be surprised. That short wave is pretty potent. YOu are in a good instability axis too (as far as TT's go). I think you score some good squalls during the late evening. I could even see eastern LI getting in on it (pending LL temps). Yeah it is. As Scooter said they're fickle... but I definitely wouldn't be surprised with a few good squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Yeah it is. As Scooter said they're fickle... but I definitely wouldn't be surprised with a few good squalls. A ribbon of 55-60 total totals rips through ct with that s/w trough. heck, low prob at thunder too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 A ribbon of 55-60 total totals rips through ct with that s/w trough. heck, low prob at thunder too. Someone wake up Wiz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Today's 12Z data looking good for a nice upslope event for the Berks and southern Greens between 00Z and 12Z Monday. There is plenty of low and mid level moisture per the 850 and 700 mb RH fields and a nice WNW wind along with TT indices in the low to mid 50s. Combined with strong PVA and decent synoptic scale forcing, it won't take much additional help from the terrain to wring out that moisture. The lack of any inversion should mean the east slope cashes in on some of this as well via spillover. Although these things don't always pan out, there may be some localized WWA criteria conditions in areas around here tomorrow night, especially on the Rensselaer Plateau, west side of the Taconics, Berks, and Greens. IMO, the parameters for WNE upslope may be good enough that this could be one of those rare occasions where we actually see some light upslope snows on the west side of the N ORH hills and Monads as well. It less common for this area as the moisture supply is often used up by the Greens and Berks and the topographic relief isn't as large as it is out here, but I've seen it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Someone wake up Wiz. After that Bruins game last night his hangover index has a 60-80% of severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I think there will be a period of light snow. The forcing isn't strong enough to go 1/2 mile moderate outside of snow showers/squalls. But I do think that later on in the afternoon you will see a 1-2 hr period of steady light snow...with the best chances to your northeast. Not saying there will be a solid wall to wall shield of echoes...but less of a showery appearance. Thanks...that is cool. Maybe it will feel like a real winter storm moving in...love that feeling. Maybe this will feel finally like our winter is moving in. If the GFS is right, then it well might be that winter is moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 After that Bruins game last night his hangover index has a 60-80% of severe. His LI (Liver Index) is definitely below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 A ribbon of 55-60 total totals rips through ct with that s/w trough. heck, low prob at thunder too. That's what caught my eye. At least we may not be fighting drier air like we sometimes are with these setups, which helps. Seems like we'll have good RH through a significant part of the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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