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Christmas (Sunday) Night - Windex Potential


Tropopause_Fold

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This probably will be hit or miss and not even coat the ground, so hopefully Kevin doesn't get his hopes up too much.

LOL..not hopeful at all.

This does remind of an Xmas Eve back in the ealry 1990's when there was a strong arctic front with some some nice moisture convergence and onshore flow and much of CT got a widespread 1-3 inches that evening. I distinctly remeber that because it was largely unforecast

It could even have been much of SNE that got it that nite..I just know CT did

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LOL..not hopeful at all.

This does remind of an Xmas Eve back in the ealry 1990's when there was a strong arctic front with some some nice moisture convergence and onshore flow and much of CT got a widespread 1-3 inches that evening. I distinctly remeber that because it was largely unforecast

I think 1992?

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These almost never work out for our latitude. Better NE MA and northward as the low blows up just a tad too far north and probably ultimately even further north given this year's trends.

It might be a band or two of squalls...with maybe a more defined band of precip over the Cape as the low develops well to the se.

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Could have been 92..i know it was the early 90's

I think you and I are thinking the same. We had like 0.75" of fluff where the moon was visible the whole time. I looked back at KBOS metar but they don't have it....it might have been just a south of the Pike thing..thought it was 1992 but I may be wrong.

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I think you and I are thinking the same. We had like 0.75" of fluff where the moon was visible the whole time. I looked back at KBOS metar but they don't have it....it might have been just a south of the Pike thing..thought it was 1992 but I may be wrong.

Maybe it was even the late 80's..I just remembe watching the local tv met that night and they showed this general blossoming band of light snows moving east out of NY state and stating it wouldn't amount to much for us.. But we ended up with around 2 inches
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Maybe it was even the late 80's..I just remembe watching the local tv met that night and they showed this general blossoming band of light snows moving east out of NY state and stating it wouldn't amount to much for us.. But we ended up with around 2 inches

I could be mixing years up. I just remember we had the moon vis with these massive ULL type dendrites falling around 10 or 11 at night. Come to think of it...it may have been Christmas Night. I'm almost positive it was in the early 90s.

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Maybe it was even the late 80's..I just remembe watching the local tv met that night and they showed this general blossoming band of light snows moving east out of NY state and stating it wouldn't amount to much for us.. But we ended up with around 2 inches

There was one of these when Bill Hovey was still on WCVB. Exactly what you said...just get expanding.

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I think you and I are thinking the same. We had like 0.75" of fluff where the moon was visible the whole time. I looked back at KBOS metar but they don't have it....it might have been just a south of the Pike thing..thought it was 1992 but I may be wrong.

I'm wrong...the one I'm thinking of was Xmas Eve 1993. (my memory is off...getting old sucks. Looks like that was < 1/2" for MHT/CON).
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I'm wrong...the one I'm thinking of was Xmas Eve 1993. (my memory is off...getting old sucks. Looks like that was < 1/2" for MHT/CON).

Bingo...I was off by a year too. I lived in Brockton at the time. I looked at KPVD and they had light snow at 11pm. That was it. 4 days later....epic-ness began.

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bit OT, but does anyone remember what date it was several years back (maybe early 2000s) that a narrow band of heavy snow set up from north/south from KASH to about PVD and just stalled from about 7pm to 12am.... localized areas between 495 and 128 ended up with between 8-12" of snow when mets were calling for a dusting

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I like the chances of getting some minor accumulations here Sunday night associated with both the WINDEX and upslope. That is a potent vortmax. Due to orographic enhancement sometimes these things have a way of over-performing here with a quick 1 to 2 hour burst of +SN yielding a quick 3" of wind blown powder, while the Pioneer Valley gets some snow showers and a coating. If we're lucky, we may get some lingering lake effect enhancement on a WNW flow, keeping snow showers going longer. This is more likely to happen if the low-levels remain somewhat moist for a while behind the front. We had a lot of these in the cold, dry January 2004 stretch and actually built up a minor snowpack as a result.

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I like the chances of getting some minor accumulations here Sunday night associated with both the WINDEX and upslope. That is a potent vortmax. Due to orographic enhancement sometimes these things have a way of over-performing here with a quick 1 to 2 hour burst of +SN yielding a quick 3" of wind blown powder, while the Pioneer Valley gets some snow showers and a coating. If we're lucky, we may get some lingering lake effect enhancement on a WNW flow, keeping snow showers going longer. This is more likely to happen if the low-levels remain somewhat moist for a while behind the front. We had a lot of these in the cold, dry January 2004 stretch and actually built up a minor snowpack as a result.

Yep you just might get ALB afds like this oldie from 2006

Main area of concern from late this afternoon through the overnight period is upslope flow and enhancement of snow shower activity on west facing slopes of Taconics...southern Green Mountains and Berkshires. 500 mb low passes over southern Berkshires late tonight accompanied by strong vorticity axis. Fairly strong frontogenetic forcing aligns itself across southern Green Mountains at 06z dropping into northern Berkshires by 12z. Expect any single crystals will change to aggregates with dendrites fairly quickly as snow growth region drops to 2-4 kft by late tonight. Snow to liquid ratios expected to increase to at least 15-20:1 with a 3-6 hour period of at least 0.5 to 1 inch per hour snow rates expected. In addition northwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 miles per hour with gusts to 30 miles per hour thus blowing and drifting snow will be a problem. Have thus issued a Winter Weather Advisory instead of a Snow Advisory for this reason. Expect total accumulations by early Friday morning of 3 to 8 inches in advisory area. Snow activity is expected to dissipate fairly quickly Friday with passage of upper trough. Lake effect will lift into western Mohawk Valley and perhaps southern portions of western Adirondacks by late Friday afternoon although instability by this time becoming conditional.

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For you old folks....

Bob Copeland just under 2 minutes and Bob Ryan on Channel 5...I never knew that.

The back story is channel 5 was originally (I think) whdh and then went to wcvb. Bob Copeland was caught in the middle and lost his job...apparently a breach of contract. He prevailed and was on the air with wcvb with probably alot of back pay. In his day, he'd tilt his head...and say "It's gonna be quite wintry" and weenies would rejoice.

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WINDEX parameters are pretty solid actually...the best we've seen thus far in the pathetic cold season

Big LI spike...check

Good low level and even mid-level RH...check

Good lapse rate between BL and about 750-800mb...check

The strong PVA should help with extra omega as well. I haven't looked at BUFKIT yet for details, but hopefully tonight at 00z it looks good. These things can sometimes turn to crap.

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