Tropopause_Fold Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 wonder if some folks get some decent snow squalls sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 wonder if some folks get some decent snow squalls sunday evening. Yeah I think so Phil. Could break just right for us. Or maybe not given recent history lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 Yeah I think so Phil. Could break just right for us. Or maybe not given recent history lol. i think it could surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 i think it could surprise. Surprises where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 Surprises where? anywhere, but mainly the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 i think it could surprise. One of those things where a strong s/w and cold air aloft acting with the relative moist ssw flow over the area. Strong cold front to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 One of those things where a strong s/w and cold air aloft acting with the relative moist ssw flow over the area. Strong cold front to boot. yeah i could envision a couple of almost convective looking squall lines cutting across NYS and NE. that's a potent shortwave...steep lapse rates and like you said decent low level moisture. the windex parameters look like they'd be met. some of the weenie sim rad products already kind of show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 yeah i could envision a couple of almost convective looking squall lines cutting across NYS and NE. that's a potent shortwave...steep lapse rates and like you said decent low level moisture. the windex parameters look like they'd be met. some of the weenie sim rad products already kind of show it. WINDEX? Cue Ginx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Potent vort coming out of the GL. RH fields look pretty good as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Yeah I think this looks decent for some snow squalls. Looks like it meets requirements. TT in the mid 50s suggest instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Yeah I think this looks decent for some snow squalls. Looks like it meets requirements. TT in the mid 50s suggest instability. The NAM has a 6hr LI spike of about 8C across the area too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 WINDEX? Cue Ginx. Been watching this closely but will wait until Sat with model chaos, having a potent closed 522 overhead you would think we would whiten the ground and give some holiday cheer. the way models change in close lately though nothing is certain.I do think models do much better with Northern Stream ULLs for some reason so there is hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Someone gets lucky in these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 ggem has widespread light qpf. could be a situation where the CP - especially S CT/S RI/Cape actually sees this (assuming it does materialize) fall as rain and maybe flips. low/mid levels are plenty cold...but the BL cooks for a time sunday PM on strong SW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 ggem has widespread light qpf. could be a situation where the CP - especially S CT/S RI/Cape actually sees this (assuming it does materialize) fall as rain and maybe flips. low/mid levels are plenty cold...but the BL cooks for a time sunday PM on strong SW flow. It may sound crazy or weenieish, but last night's and this morning's RSM look decent. I haven't forgotten how they nailed 1/28/2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 ggem has widespread light qpf. could be a situation where the CP - especially S CT/S RI/Cape actually sees this (assuming it does materialize) fall as rain and maybe flips. low/mid levels are plenty cold...but the BL cooks for a time sunday PM on strong SW flow. I looked at BUFKIT for BOS and it's pretty cold right off the deck. Maybe start as a mix and then flip to snow if it comes down heavy. Models seem to target the Cape in an almost convective looking band setting up that evening too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Ok I'm on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 I looked at BUFKIT for BOS and it's pretty cold right off the deck. Maybe start as a mix and then flip to snow if it comes down heavy. Models seem to target the Cape in an almost convective looking band setting up that evening too. yeah looked noticeably colder up your way. i shouldn't have said CP...that's misleading..really should have just listed that S CT to the Cape corridor as that's where the low levels warm fairly considerably sun pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 yeah looked noticeably colder up your way. i shouldn't have said CP...that's misleading..really should have just listed that S CT to the Cape corridor as that's where the low levels warm fairly considerably sun pm. Well usually we are fairly warm below 950 on a SSW type wind, but it's pretty dam chilly aloft. I would think upper 30s easily with that wind even at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Ok I'm insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Ok I'm on board Your temper tantrum only lasted a few hours. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Ok I'm on board Gotta hand it to you, vent and feel relief. A lesson to all of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I like the elevated areas with these setups. Nice orographic lift with the flow coming off the GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 Ok I'm on board i guess now i have to start posting about it not snowing IYBY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 euro and a few other models have some light qpf over eastern areas on sun afternoon way in advance of the system progged to come through sun night...haven't looked too close but can't tell if that's maybe OE on a return flow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 euro and a few other models have some light qpf over eastern areas on sun afternoon way in advance of the system progged to come through sun night...haven't looked too close but can't tell if that's maybe OE on a return flow? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 i guess now i have to start posting about it not snowing IYBY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 12z GEM doesn't look too bad for some LT snows in eastern new england for sun pm - monday am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 This probably will be hit or miss and not even coat the ground, so hopefully Kevin doesn't get his hopes up too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 This probably will be hit or miss and not even coat the ground, so hopefully Kevin doesn't get his hopes up too much. These almost never work out for our latitude. Better NE MA and northward as the low blows up just a tad too far north and probably ultimately even further north given this year's trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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