Chicago Storm Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 happy new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 GFS really backing off on the late week warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 ... Record lowest December snowfall set at Gaylord mi... The December snowfall was 9.8 inches at Gaylord. This is the lowest snowfall total ever recorded for the month of December. This breaks the old record of 10.5 inches set in 1997. The 30-year normal snowfall for December is 33.3 inches. Gaylord snowfall records have been established from cooperative observation data and date back to 1939. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 GFS shows things staying very quiet for the first half of the month. Does show very cold air bodily moving south out of Canada around mid month. Simply amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 GFS shows things staying very quiet for the first half of the month. Does show very cold air bodily moving south out of Canada around mid month. Simply amazing. Cold is a good sign though....many were saying pattern change mid-month, some said beginning of Feb, but the OP GFS would suggest earlier. Clippers are often not seen until several days ahead of time, so its just a good sign to see cold in the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Cold is a good sign though....many were saying pattern change mid-month, some said beginning of Feb, but the OP GFS would suggest earlier. Clippers are often not seen until several days ahead of time, so its just a good sign to see cold in the extended. Yeah it's nice to see the longer lasting cold finally on the way. Should lead to something eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 ECMWF shows a continuation of a more or less zonal flow pattern, with a cutoff low/developing SLP by D8-10, with little cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Cold is a good sign though....many were saying pattern change mid-month, some said beginning of Feb, but the OP GFS would suggest earlier. Clippers are often not seen until several days ahead of time, so its just a good sign to see cold in the extended. There looks to be a clipper coming through around Wednesday. The setup in the Atlantic couldn't be any better for some lake cutters. It's the Pacific that's the problem, and may potentially continue to be the problem. That said, the window is open for a real storm around January 10-15th. The key however will be getting the cold air that's in place to stay in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 The Euro sure isn't showing any real cold. The latest 12z run continues a pretty zonal pacific flow across the US through the period, with only minor cool downs behind the progressive short waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I'd be really careful with the modeled pattern changes since they often like to rush things. Other than transient shots, I think we're looking at mid month at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I'd be really careful with the modeled pattern changes since they often like to rush things. Other than transient shots, I think we're looking at mid month at the earliest. I'd say this is correct...other than the "pattern change" starting sometime around Jan 20 or beyond. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I'd say this is correct...other than the "pattern change" starting sometime around Jan 20 or beyond. Maybe. One month after the Winter solstice lol. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 One month after the Winter solstice lol. Nice. Maybe. I don't know, I'm not sure everything will ever line up perfectly this winter. There are some good signs in the extended...but still bad ones as well. I guess we can only wait and hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 With a high temp of 44 at ORD earlier, today will end up tied for the 10th warmest NYD on record (17th overall). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 From really really really bad to not as bad...looking at western/central Canada. 12z GEFS 2m departure maps for January 4th and 16th. January 4th January 16th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I believe that I am seeing daytime snow for the first time this winter right now. Oh, wait ... it just ended. So ephemeral it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I believe that I am seeing daytime snow for the first time this winter right now. Oh, wait ... it just ended. So ephemeral it is. Haha, I was just thinking the same thing. First time I've seen flakes while at home in the daytime all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I believe that I am seeing daytime snow for the first time this winter right now. Oh, wait ... it just ended. So ephemeral it is. Haha, pretty much same thing here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Ouch. Euro 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 IMO the op euro shouldn't be looked at beyond D7 and any other model for that matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 IMO the op euro shouldn't be looked at beyond D7 and any other model for that matter No it shouldn't. The ensembles seem to offer the best guidance past day 7, but only for general pattern ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I wonder how warm we'll get on Friday. Very warm air aloft being projected but deep mixing can be hard to come by at this time of year. IND already going with 49 (15 above normal) and we're 5 days out. I think we could hit the 50's even with pretty poor mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 No it shouldn't. The ensembles seem to offer the best guidance past day 7, but only for general pattern ideas. We need fantasy storms to track at this point...so with that in mind, 12z Euro has a slop storm day 10 as the southwest cutoff ejects eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I wonder how warm we'll get on Friday. Very warm air aloft being projected but deep mixing can be hard to come by at this time of year. IND already going with 49 (15 above normal) and we're 5 days out. I think we could hit the 50's even with pretty poor mixing. A lolLAF 56º for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 We need fantasy storms to track at this point...so with that in mind, 12z Euro has a slop storm day 10 as the southwest cutoff ejects eastward. Punt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 We need fantasy storms to track at this point...so with that in mind, 12z Euro has a slop storm day 10 as the southwest cutoff ejects eastward. Dodge City, KS likes it: THE ECMWF PROCEEDS THEN TO CLOSE OFF A MID LEVEL CYCLONE AS SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA IN A VERY FAMILIAR ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK LIKE WE SAW BACK IN MID-DECEMBER...PRIOR TO THE BIG DECEMBER 19-20 BLIZZARD. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NEVER CLOSES OFF A CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE PROPENSITY FOR SIGNIFICANT ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAKING LOWS SO FAR THIS COLD SEASON OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...THE IDEA OF YET ANOTHER ONE OCCURRING ISN`T ALL THAT CRAZY...AND IN FACT IS PROBABLY THE BETTER PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE GIVEN THE BASE STATE OF THE PLANETARY CIRCULATION REGIME OVER THE PAST MONTH OR TWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Punt Sad to say but these setups have been our bread and butter this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Sad to say but these setups have been our bread and butter this winter. Yeah I guess so. But I just can't get excited for another potential slop storm at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 The day 10 storm looks similar to the blizzard a week ago or so for the western Plains. Looks like mostly rain further east just like that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I wonder how warm we'll get on Friday. Very warm air aloft being projected but deep mixing can be hard to come by at this time of year. IND already going with 49 (15 above normal) and we're 5 days out. I think we could hit the 50's even with pretty poor mixing. According to Tropical Milwaukee will hit 60 late week. Of course that was based on the Euro showing 850 mb temps of 8-9 C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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