SpartyOn Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Most def digging the look of the pacific and the GOA. Finally we get in on a winter. Someone mentioned earlier that the look of the pattern has been very La Nina like. Couldnt agree more. The storm track shifts little for the lakes region but the cold looks to be locked in..at least per a few runs. One more "torch" this week (could be short lived) and it appears the switch will be thrown. Lets see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Most def digging the look of the pacific and the GOA. Finally we get in on a winter. Someone mentioned earlier that the look of the pattern has been very La Nina like. Couldnt agree more. The storm track shifts little for the lakes region but the cold looks to be locked in..at least per a few runs. One more "torch" this week (could be short lived) and it appears the switch will be thrown. Lets see what happens. Euro says winter is dead until at least Feb 1st. I'm on that wagon. GFS is worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Brett Anderson's interpretation of the Euro weeklies isn't very good for a pattern change. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/new-look-at-the-extended-long-range-model-forecast/59714 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Wonder if spring is gonna suck this year with extended cold... Sent from my iPad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Its not a shocker that the euro weeklies depict warm temps. Not greatly familiar with the ECMWF long range model but they seem to have a "lag" time. Things are rolling along just fine. Tropical pull up those weeklies from late may..What did they show for June? I could fail big on my memory but thats when I noticed a this lag. When clearly a pattern change was lurking but the long range weeklies/monthlies still showed cool conditions. We roasted so well in June and finally they caught up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Wonder if spring is gonna suck this year with extended cold... Sent from my iPad Nothing could be as bad as last Spring. Major suckage. Ill admit if this winter continues to fail a toasty Spring like we had in 2010 would be so bad ass. Besides it wont be too much longer before we start to see robins picking at worms and watching the lawns green up. If this Winter fails and stays torchy this spring might be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 3rd post. Love this write-up by Bill D. Sound familiar? THE DR. JEKYLL / MR. HYDE WINTER OF 1899-1900 The winter of 1899-1900 started off on a pleasant, mild and dry note with little snow. Temperatures averaged only slightly above normal in December but more so in January, despite a cold snap at the beginning and end of the month. January, in fact, averaged about five � degrees above normal in Detroit. Furthermore, snowfall was only about half the average through January. By the end of January, fewer than 10 inches /9.4/ of snow fell in Detroit, which normally sees a couple of feet by this time. The majority of the storm tracks held north of Southeast Lower Michigan through midwinter, and thus, cold outbreaks and snowstorms were kept to a minimum. Yet, if the inhabitants of Southeast Lower Michigan thought they were going to get off easily the winter of 1899-1900, they were in for one rude awakening, as the latter half of the winter bore no resemblance to the first half. Feb-Mar were absolutely brutal. that winter ended up bringing 69 inches of snow and brutal cold snaps in Feb and Mar, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Wonder if spring is gonna suck this year with extended cold... Endless ENE winds off Lake Michigan. It'll be glorious hearing the moans and groans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Yeah, but that was a strong El Nino. About par the course for them over the years. La Nina more likely to have a wintery surge in January/early February........or wait to spring. Correct. Where Im leading is that it makes you wonder if this winter is and will truly be a back end loaded. The pattern has to break and the anti block will collapse. It has too! Agree 100% that it will be the pac to the rescue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 The 18z GFS is certain depicting something very different from the Euro weeklies, which according to Brett Anderson are showing a torch for much of January. If GFS is to be believed, winter is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Brett Anderson's interpretation of the Euro weeklies isn't very good for a pattern change. http://www.accuweath...-forecast/59714 Would you believe them if they were cold? And isn't that guy a raging warmwantista? Not that I don't believe they're warm overall of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Would you believe them if they were cold? And isn't that guy a raging warmwantista? Not that I don't believe they're warm overall of course. Brett Anderson has been pretty accurate this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Brett Anderson has been pretty accurate this winter Don't follow the guy personally. Not to diminish his skills at all, but it hasn't been that hard of a forecast so far this winter (in the medium/long range). Just enter warm and keep repeating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Don't follow the guy personally. Not to diminish his skills at all, but it hasn't been that hard of a forecast so far this winter (in the medium/long range). Just enter warm and keep repeating. He called for a mild December in early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 He called for a mild December in early November. Well, a good call by him then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Well, a good call by him then. I hope hes wrong. This sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Brett Anderson has been pretty accurate this winter Isn't he normally a warminista, though? He rides global warming hard. Sure, you can give him credit based on his reasoning at the time, but if he tends to ride the warm train in most situations, then you have to question whether it was just a lucky guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Isn't he normally a warminista, though? He rides global warming hard. Sure, you can give him credit based on his reasoning at the time, but if he tends to ride the warm train in most situations, then you have to question whether it was just a lucky guess. Brett seems like a good guy, but you're right, he really psuhes a global warming agenda. He's gone even more in that direction ever since Joe Bastardi left accuweather. He actually keeps a global warming blog on the accuweather free site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Correct. Where Im leading is that it makes you wonder if this winter is and will truly be a back end loaded. The pattern has to break and the anti block will collapse. It has too! Agree 100% that it will be the pac to the rescue. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 lol You sure like to rack up those post counts lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Isn't he normally a warminista, though? He rides global warming hard. Sure, you can give him credit based on his reasoning at the time, but if he tends to ride the warm train in most situations, then you have to question whether it was just a lucky guess. He is a warminista. Funny. He was the first to cry about the cold spring. Also predicted a miserable cool Summer. Good guy.. Bad Long Ranger. BTW. He rides the Euro weeklies like Seabiscuit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 lol Joe? Did you start boozing early. BTW. Happy New Years to all of you guys . Heres hoping for another fun filled year of weather..(minus mass casualty EF-5s) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 He called for a mild December in early November. He always calls for warmer than normal temps. His forecast for last year was for searing heat across most of the east, which of course failed horribly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Isn't he normally a warminista, though? He rides global warming hard. Sure, you can give him credit based on his reasoning at the time, but if he tends to ride the warm train in most situations, then you have to question whether it was just a lucky guess. Yeah he leans that way. His new outlook would be indicative of a raging AO and NAO. He made two posting this month, one with the rest of December and then the first half of January. You can go to his blog and see the 9th, 13th, and 16th postings. He predicted the temperatures well, actually under did them on the 9th posting. A snowy outlook for the northern Plains was off. His original prediction for this coming week will be off some with the arctic outbreak knocking on our door. His revised forecast for next week on the 13th is close in the eastern half of the country to what's going to happen with the warm vs. cold. - He's put a tough in the west, which looks a lot like the GFS after next weekend. Then his 16th posting was for the rest of the winter based off the Euro, which looks a lot like the winter of 2007-2008 pattern. And now he's changing his ideas again. Accuweather's winter forecast in general has busted big, big time so far. So who knows what will happen! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 He always calls for warmer than normal temps. His forecast for last year was for searing heat across most of the east, which of course failed horribly. Cromartie must worship him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Cromartie must worship him. Word is he has a Fat Head® poster of Mr. Anderson stuck on the wall in his living room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Word is he has a Fat Head® poster of Mr. Anderson stuck on the wall in his living room. I just spit wine all over my keyboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I just spit wine all over my keyboard. I'll be back later for more after my 8th beer. Probably a good time to wish everyone a Happy New Year in the Lakes/OV forum. Here's to a snowier future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 13 years ago tomorrow was the start of something special. Though I wasn't living in LAF at the time, it begun here at 6PM with just a light snow. METAR KLAF 012254Z 11018G22KT 4SM -SN OVC034 M07/M11 A3034 RMK AO2 SNB17 SLP274 P0000 T10721106 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 +PNA. GEFS don't agree. The OP made this mistake at Christmas time as well. 00z GFS is not backing down and keeps moving things up still. Although there is an odd issue at truncation with the storminess over Alaska, it may be breaking the general low pressure in the area down too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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