Thundersnow12 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 0z GFS really changing its tune taking the wave that moves across the pac NW and nrn plains D4/5 and moves it due south into the srn plains and cuts it off for a few days with western US trof by 180hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Canuck, what is the latets Euro showing for next Wednesday (4th) precipitation wise? Is the cold forecast to hold? Nope. Transient (but intense) shot of arctic air. As we get towards next weekend we torch, although I'm still seeing signs the worst of the torch misses us to the SW. But either way, it's not even close to being hospitable for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 GGEM still has the midweek clipper but I've noticed it's tended to over-develop these northern stream storms in the med range only to back off as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 6Z GFS continues with the idea of a western trough next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 GGEM still has the midweek clipper but I've noticed it's tended to over-develop these northern stream storms in the med range only to back off as we get closer. It doesn't look too intense, even on the 6z GFS, so Wednesday still looks drivrable. I'll just have to keep a close eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Early next week looks interesting around here. If we can get a strong NW wind to bring lake effect into the GTA I will be pleased. It happened last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Early next week looks interesting around here. If we can get a strong NW wind to bring lake effect into the GTA I will be pleased. It happened last year. Also, if we can get that clipper to develop (even a weak one like the EURO had), and track to our S/W, we could get some multibands of lake ontario on a SSE/SE wind towards late week. Delta-Ts would still be plenty high enough to support lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Just plugged in 5 of the top 10 (5 of the years were so old that I couldn't get data) warmest Decembers to see what Jan-April looked like... for Wisconsin: Jan torched Feb cold March cold April cold Have to see what Jan ends up doing, but right now at least the 1st half looks warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31458-the-9th-annual-weenie-of-the-year-championship-round/ Championship round only separated by a vote! Your vote counts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Also, if we can get that clipper to develop (even a weak one like the EURO had), and track to our S/W, we could get some multibands of lake ontario on a SSE/SE wind towards late week. Delta-Ts would still be plenty high enough to support lake effect. JB has tweeted that the Canadian is more robust on the clipper, but I can't tell if he means the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic and can't ascertain what day he is referring to. To be honest I hope we don't get steady snow along the 401 corridor between Toronto and Ottawa on Wednesday 4th. In fact it's the one day this winter when I could really do without snow! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Anyone order a torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Anyone order a torch? Yeah, the weather is looking like crap by next weekend. I'm telling you, it's Roger Smith all the way. He called for blowtorch conditions around January 7th this past Fall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 JB has tweeted that the Canadian is more robust on the clipper, but I can't tell if he means the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic and can't ascertain what day he is referring to. To be honest I hope we don't get steady snow along the 401 corridor between Toronto and Ottawa on Wednesday 4th. In fact it's the one day this winter when I could really do without snow! lol I think he's referring to the same clipper as I am. Welp, if it looks like it's going to snow on Wednesday, you can always leave early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Anyone order a torch? I remember the GFS of two weeks ago showing +10c 850 temps all the way up to the NW territories around NYE. Timing and intensity was a bit off put these models are a lot better than we give them credit for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Canuck- I agree. Its amazing they can catch onto warmth like that 2 weeks out.... Obviously they can catch onto the general pattern and where it is heading, its just specifics that are hard to nail down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Kind of a quick and dirty way to look at the long range on the GEFS, but these are usually decent guide to the future...or what the ensembles are looking like. I've followed them for awhile, and while not accurate to the tenth degree...they've been good with the persistent warmth so far. Needless to say, the 12z suite seems to indicate a change afoot in western and central Canada down the road. Of course it could mean squat for us, but any change is somewhat interesting to me. Loop here (drag your cursor over the days at the top to loop, day one has no map)http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSTDEP2_12z/tloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Looks like there's some potential for very strong wind gusts tomorrow night, but especially on Sunday over much of the Midwest. Surface low will continue to tank as it heads towards Canada while a 1040+mb high rolls into the Plains. With unidirectional flow through the column, and very strong winds right off the deck on Sunday we could see some widespread 40-50mph gusts. DVN hit it pretty hard with the new AFD... SATURDAY NIGHT...LOOKING AT THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING JUST NORTH OF THE CWFA WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY 06Z. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE WIND AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TO MORE THAN 13MB ACROSS THE AREA AND 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50+KTS. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES... WILL POST WIND ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IF FULL MIXING IS ACHIEVED ON SUNDAY...COULD EVEN SEE SOME HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA GUSTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 SREF max sustained winds 21z Sunday. Widespread 30+mph. Very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Kind of a quick and dirty way to look at the long range on the GEFS, but these are usually decent guide to the future...or what the ensembles are looking like. I've followed them for awhile, and while not accurate to the tenth degree...they've been good with the persistent warmth so far. Needless to say, the 12z suite seems to indicate a change afoot in western and central Canada down the road. Of course it could mean squat for us, but any change is somewhat interesting to me. Loop here (drag your cursor over the days at the top to loop, day one has no map)http://www.meteo.psu..._12z/tloop.html yeah I've been following the developments. The main change everyone needs is to get that Alaskan vortex out of there. Once it's gone, it will stop flooding Canada/US with warmer air and we can finally get a trough in the west/central US. Both the Euro ensembles and GFS have been indicating this in the extended 10+ day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 yeah I've been following the developments. The main change everyone needs is to get that Alaskan vortex out of there. Once it's gone, it will stop flooding Canada/US with warmer air and we can finally get a trough in the west/central US. Both the Euro ensembles and GFS have been indicating this in the extended 10+ day range. Yep, agreed on the vortex needing to get out of Alaska. As it is, it looks like the cold starts dumping into western/central Canada...which is good step in the right direction. How long it is until we realize its effects are still out in the distance. Looks like we'll get no help from the Atlantic side anytime soon, so it'll have to be +PNA driven. But looks like there could be hope on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Yeah, the weather is looking like crap by next weekend. I'm telling you, it's Roger Smith all the way. He called for blowtorch conditions around January 7th this past Fall! I remember that because Jan. 7th is my birthday. I was thinking that I haven't seen many torches on my birthday. If he's right, I'll drink a toast to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Yep, agreed on the vortex needing to get out of Alaska. As it is, it looks like the cold starts dumping into western/central Canada...which is good step in the right direction. How long it is until we realize its effects are still out in the distance. Looks like we'll get no help from the Atlantic side anytime soon, so it'll have to be +PNA driven. But looks like there could be hope on the horizon. I think it looks pretty good, at least better than what we have been seeing recently. There's more of a La Nina look to the pattern, just have to worry about the SE ridge getting too strong and hope that the Alaskan vortex doesn't come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Holy crap! The 0z GFS is showing a mega torch coming by next Thursday/Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Holy crap! The 0z GFS is showing a mega torch coming by next Thursday/Friday! Seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 nothing like 850mb temps at 12 degrees C around here in early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Seriously? I thinking that will be a 3 day torch or so. Northern plains/western lakes cool off on the 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Vortex over Alaska starts breaking down and HP moves in around h228, it strengthens through the run but retrogrades back west a bit by the end of the run. This is very good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Might be a "3 day torch" though the GFS's bias of being overly progressive in the medium range is coming back into play. Moves trough a little to fast for my taste.LIke to see it develope a system and put some snow over the plains/upper midwest. Yeah, when that vortex breaks down, that is when the pattern change will be complete, but the actual time is up for grabs. Yeah, I'm just glad it's continuing to show it breaking down run after run and it hasn't been 'stuck' at like Day 14, it's been moving forward. I'm not exactly sure I buy the gradient W-E pattern though, that's up in the air. Baby steps though and that vortex breaking down in a consistent fashion makes me happier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Monday looks to be the most "wintry feeling" day to date this winter here. Kinda sad, but it'll be nice nonetheless. Point and click below. Monday: A chance of flurries after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. Blustery, with a northwest wind between 21 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Monday Night: A chance of flurries. Partly cloudy and blustery, with a low around 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 the 6z GFS deffinately shows a light snow event for Wednesday. Still debating whether or not to make my journey between Toronto and Ottawa given it is a day trip, not an overnight one. Given the models seem to be all over the place, I may have to wait until Monday or tuesday before deciding. Canada's Weather Network is calling simply for a few flurries, while EC is calling for periods of snow in Ottawa for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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