snowstormcanuck Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Looks likes northern Michigan will finally see some snow next week. Is it just me or are we in for another heat wave later next week? 12z GFS seems to suppress that plains torch more to the south. We just get a temporary glancing blow. 0z EURO wasn't so kind wrt to the magnitude, but it's about as brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 12z GFS seems to suppress that plains torch more to the south. We just get a temporary glancing blow. 0z EURO wasn't so kind wrt to the magnitude, but it's about as brief. I just reminded myself that this is the same model that was showing an epic cutoff low in the D7-10 period 4 runs ago, and a massive arctic outbreak in the D7-10 period 2 runs ago. Beyond D7 EURO's **** does stink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Interesting about the 12z GFS...I know its 300+ hours out but its something interesting. Across the Pacific it tries to build a Aleutian Ridge and pumps up the heights across AK thus this forms a trough across the West and East and weak Ridge in between. Because of this..a -EPO tries to form and despite little help from the Arcitc it seems as though the PV splits and Western Canada is sent into the deep freezer around the 10th. Lets see. If that is the case then perhaps we can build a gradient pattern like 07-08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I'm starting the plan an EARLY monday morning trip to Paradise/Newberry area... Then come back Wednesday before the warmup hits thursday. Should be wild LES the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I was hoping that the pattern change was going to come a bit early as per a few runs of the EURO/GFS, but that looks less and less likely. D6-10 on the 12z/29 EURO is an absolute disaster. Our best hope is that a clipper like s/w can slide down the back side of the longwave trough (per the GGEM/some GEFS members) and fortify it, hopefully shunting the core of the + temp anomalies to the S & W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I was hoping that the pattern change was going to come a bit early as per a few runs of the EURO/GFS, but that looks less and less likely. D6-10 on the 12z/29 EURO is an absolute disaster. Our best hope is that a clipper like s/w can slide down the back side of the longwave trough (per the GGEM/some GEFS members) and fortify it, hopefully shunting the core of the + temp anomalies to the S & W. Hey never know it can still happen. Like you said the EURO was the model showing the east coast snowmaggedon just a couple of days ago. I think after D10 we will finally start seeing our long awaited pattern change HOPEFULLY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I was hoping that the pattern change was going to come a bit early as per a few runs of the EURO/GFS, but that looks less and less likely. D6-10 on the 12z/29 EURO is an absolute disaster. Our best hope is that a clipper like s/w can slide down the back side of the longwave trough (per the GGEM/some GEFS members) and fortify it, hopefully shunting the core of the + temp anomalies to the S & W. Canuck, what is the latets Euro showing for next Wednesday (4th) precipitation wise? Is the cold forecast to hold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Long way out but next Friday looks like a furnace on the 12z runs. 850 mb temps are very warm for this time of year...could be talking about near record warmth IF that is realized at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I cant believe the heat wave for late next week. Amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Late January or bust. Funny how I keep moving "down" my time for a pattern change to something consistently wintry. Oh well, I've kinda punted this winter for MBY anyway. Time to clean the golf clubs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Umm the recent outlooks from CPC look like **** if your a fan of winter. We go from the freezer into the oven in 3-4 days. Haha gotta love that AO screaming. I want to say pattern change fail! But I need to see a few more European runs. The gFS is all over the place. Soooo we miss half of Jan? Lol freak out and meltdowns by a few in 15 some days. **** it! If it gets that warm late next week I'm going disc golfing with just a hoodie! Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Late January or bust. Funny how I keep moving "down" my time for a pattern change to something consistently wintry. Oh well, I've kinda punted this winter for MBY anyway. Time to clean the golf clubs... February will be rockinTM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 February will be rockinTM March. It'll definitely be March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 February will be rockinTM BTW: how much snow has Chicago seen this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 BTW: how much snow has Chicago seen this year? 1.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 1.7" wow the least snowing year is in reach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 wow the least snowing year is in reach There have been 10 worse starts to the season, believe it or not. http://www.americanw...-thru-december/ I'll bet heavy money they avoid the least snowiest season on record though (9.8" in 1920-21). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I actually seen that happen once in Jan 1997. Crazy banding once you turned the bend in traverse City and started heading west on 72. Ive been to South Boardman, Indian River, Maple City, Charlevoix and Traverse City countless tiimes for work from 04 through 09. I would work in Maple City but stay in Traverse City vice versa with South Boardman. I can tell you one particular time in the spring of 08' Over 2 feet of snow roughly was on the ground in Maple City and Kalkaska. Traverse City... only few Inches. Even the Locals will tell you have to go away from the city. Ive Notice the same with Charlevoix versus Gaylord, Boyne etc... Once you get north of Vanderbilt it almost completely shuts off the LES towards Indian River unless theres a rare WSW flow that can hammer the area. Petoskey received over 30" in one day on LES in 2001. Very very Interesting winter weather up there. Yes it is certainly is. I have close family that live in Shanty Creek up there by Mancelona/Bellaire and the amount of snow is just incredible but I remember Traverse City never really got quite as much snow. US-131 can get a little dicey sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 wow the least snowing year is in reach I guess it's always in reach until it's surpassed but the probability is so low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I guess it's always in reach until it's surpassed but the probability is so low. I'm going to make a thread soon so we can track it (least snowiest on record). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I'm going to make a thread soon so we can track it (least snowiest on record). I would wait till about Jan 20th to make a thread I like that. Lets see what happens after next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I would wait till about Jan 20th to make a thread I like that. Lets see what happens after next week. I was just kidding around. If I really did make a thread though, I'd do it in early February at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I was just kidding around. If I really did make a thread though, I'd do it in early February at the earliest. got ya.. LOL. Although if you did make that thread it would be like reverse psychology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 got ya.. LOL. Although if you did make that thread it would be like reverse psychology. I've thought of the reverse jinx angle...trust me. Alas, as it stands right now...LAF whooping ORD on the season, 5.7" to 1.7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I've thought of the reverse jinx angle...trust me. Alas, as it stands right now...LAF whooping ORD on the season, 5.7" to 1.7". And I'm whooping LAF IMBY at 8.9" with FWA doing even better. Payback for you guys trouncing me last year......although I was picking dandelions out of my yard the other day As crappy as December has been around here, it's hard to believe that I'm at about seasonal average and ahead of almost everyone in our subforum. EDIT: After I posted this, I started checking and I may have gotten carried away in saying that we are ahead of most in our area, but I've done better than many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 And I'm whooping LAF IMBY at 8.9" with FWA doing even better. Payback for you guys trouncing me last year......although I was picking dandelions out of my yard the other day As crappy as December has been around here, it's hard to believe that I'm at about seasonal average and ahead of almost everyone in our subforum. I think we were pretty close in the end last season, no? We got off to a big lead in December, but frittered it away. But yeah you've done really well so far this winter. Heck, I'm happy to see as much as we've had down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I think we were pretty close in the end last season, no? We got off to a big lead in December, but frittered it away. But yeah you've done really well so far this winter. Heck, I'm happy to see as much as we've had down here. I finished at 43.0", while FWA ended with 46.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I finished at 43.0", while FWA ended with 46.5". Well it was sorta close, 49.0" here. One of the few times we will beat you and FWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Well it was sorta close, 49.0" here. One of the few times we will beat you and FWA. You were waay ahead in December, we only got 8.8". Then we had a 21.9" February. Hey....wait a minute. We've already matched our Dec. total for last year. It sure doesn't seem like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 You were waay ahead in December, we only got 8.8". Then we had a 21.9" February. Hey....wait a minute. We've already matched our Dec. total for last year. It sure doesn't seem like it. We're not even close (21.8" last December). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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