Chicago WX Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 they would need to produce snow for that to happen, going to be tough with warm boundary layer temps. To be fair, I believe Geo was talking about snow up north...not Chicago. Thermals look fine for places like Green Bay, etc. Of course I'm using the 0z NAM, which is farther north than any other model at the moment...but the idea stands. Though the pattern going forward still sucks, so I'm not sure how much snow pack will be retained anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 To be fair, I believe Geo was talking about snow up north...not Chicago. Thermals look fine for places like Green Bay, etc. Of course I'm using the 0z NAM, which is farther north than any other model at the moment...but the idea stands. I agree with you. More northern areas is what I believe Geos was talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 It's still not nearly as amplified as the Euro, but the 00z GFS has definitely trended in that direction. The zonal flow of the 12z next week has been replaced by ridge west/trough east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 To be fair, I believe Geo was talking about snow up north...not Chicago. Thermals look fine for places like Green Bay, etc. Of course I'm using the 0z NAM, which is farther north than any other model at the moment...but the idea stands. Though the pattern going forward still sucks, so I'm not sure how much snow pack will be retained anyway. Oh i know lol even if they produce a bit of snow it warms up behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 0z ECMWF ditched the prolonged/deep East Coast trough idea and is now much more progressive. Nation wide torch by the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 0z ECMWF ditched the prolonged/deep East Coast trough idea and is now much more progressive. Yeah it's looking more and more like just a strong cold frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 0z ECMWF ditched the prolonged/deep East Coast trough idea and is now much more progressive. Nation wide torch by the end of the run. oogly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 oogly If you note though the ridge out west into the Pacific is already begining to build up towards AK/nw Canada again. Thus i suspect a glancing blow with that torch. IF the euro is to be believed anyways. As mentioned the past day or 2 the MJO is on the move again and models take it to Phase 6/7 and a few all the way to 1-2. That is alot more favorable for colder/stormier/snowier for this region and points south and east should it reach 8-1. It has been rotting in phase 4-5 for a good while now and yeah as we all see that is the worst area for it to rot. I wont breath easier though till i see it atleast into phase 6. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 To be fair, I believe Geo was talking about snow up north...not Chicago. Thermals look fine for places like Green Bay, etc. Of course I'm using the 0z NAM, which is farther north than any other model at the moment...but the idea stands. Though the pattern going forward still sucks, so I'm not sure how much snow pack will be retained anyway. Yeah I was referring to northern half of Wisconsin to the U.P. I guess the snow could help cool the ground off! Of course if it warms up two days later with the sun out - all is lost! Chilly night tonight, down to 21° at the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 If you note though the ridge out west into the Pacific is already begining to build up towards AK/nw Canada again. Thus i suspect a glancing blow with that torch. IF the euro is to be believed anyways. As mentioned the past day or 2 the MJO is on the move again and models take it to Phase 6/7 and a few all the way to 1-2. That is alot more favorable for colder/stormier/snowier for this region and points south and east should it reach 8-1. It has been rotting in phase 4-5 for a good while now and yeah as we all see that is the worst area for it to rot. I wont breath easier though till i see it atleast into phase 6. lol Well, the Euro is king. It's looking like some transient cold next week for the GL/OV, followed by a glancing blow of warmth by next weekend. After that, with the AO/NAO progged to go neutral, as a few have already mentioned, if we are going to get The Big One, the second week of Jan. would be the time frame to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Well, the Euro is king. It's looking like some transient cold next week for the GL/OV, followed by a glancing blow of warmth by next weekend. After that, with the AO/NAO progged to go neutral, as a few have already mentioned, if we are going to get The Big One, the second week of Jan. would be the time frame to watch. Lets be honest here. No model is king of hour 240. The past couple days the EURO was just showing a massive winter storm around day 7 which it has significantly back away from. This pattern has been very hard on the models. The models have been or at least seems worst than the normal anything past hour 120 is fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 In a day they can get 10-20 inches. Not rare either NOPE! Lived there 7 years ('90-'97), saw probably 1,000 inches of snow IMBY w/o a Major Blizzard no less. 5hp dual stage thrower is "minimal" snow removal equipment there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 NOPE! Lived there 7 years ('90-'97), saw probably 1,000 inches of snow IMBY w/o a Major Blizzard no less. 5hp dual stage thrower is "minimal" snow removal equipment there. TC can easily get a LES event that drops 10 inches. Or at least just SE of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Well, the Euro is king. It's looking like some transient cold next week for the GL/OV, followed by a glancing blow of warmth by next weekend. After that, with the AO/NAO progged to go neutral, as a few have already mentioned, if we are going to get The Big One, the second week of Jan. would be the time frame to watch. I think it's the start of the pattern change. At least the AO/NAO show signs of going negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 TC can easily get a LES event that drops 10 inches. Or at least just SE of the city. Better chance East and West of Town from South Boardman to Mancelona and from Maple City to Honor. Traverse City does not really get the big LES event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdavewi Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Better chance East and West of Town from South Boardman to Mancelona and from Maple City to Honor. Traverse City does not really get the big LES event. That is true - it is hard for the city proper to cash in on a really good pure LES event. That said, in a due north to slightly north/northeast (020 degree) flow, localized convergence down the spine of Grand Traverse Bay can really pump out some impressive single bands at times. Have seen them pick up 12+" in 24 hours before from pure LES. Still, areas just to the east do much better as the flow over time tends to be more northwesterly or north/northwesterly. Upslope into the higher terrain (including around here in Gaylord) does wonders also. Our local office study suggests a general 10" increase in annual snowfall for every 100 feet increase in elevation - just amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 That is true - it is hard for the city proper to cash in on a really good pure LES event. That said, in a due north to slightly north/northeast (020 degree) flow, localized convergence down the spine of Grand Traverse Bay can really pump out some impressive single bands at times. Have seen them pick up 12+" in 24 hours before from pure LES. Still, areas just to the east do much better as the flow over time tends to be more northwesterly or north/northwesterly. Upslope into the higher terrain (including around here in Gaylord) does wonders also. Our local office study suggests a general 10" increase in annual snowfall for every 100 feet increase in elevation - just amazing! I actually seen that happen once in Jan 1997. Crazy banding once you turned the bend in traverse City and started heading west on 72. Ive been to South Boardman, Indian River, Maple City, Charlevoix and Traverse City countless tiimes for work from 04 through 09. I would work in Maple City but stay in Traverse City vice versa with South Boardman. I can tell you one particular time in the spring of 08' Over 2 feet of snow roughly was on the ground in Maple City and Kalkaska. Traverse City... only few Inches. Even the Locals will tell you have to go away from the city. Ive Notice the same with Charlevoix versus Gaylord, Boyne etc... Once you get north of Vanderbilt it almost completely shuts off the LES towards Indian River unless theres a rare WSW flow that can hammer the area. Petoskey received over 30" in one day on LES in 2001. Very very Interesting winter weather up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 12z euro makes me chilly. Change is coming in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 That is true - it is hard for the city proper to cash in on a really good pure LES event. That said, in a due north to slightly north/northeast (020 degree) flow, localized convergence down the spine of Grand Traverse Bay can really pump out some impressive single bands at times. Have seen them pick up 12+" in 24 hours before from pure LES. Still, areas just to the east do much better as the flow over time tends to be more northwesterly or north/northwesterly. Upslope into the higher terrain (including around here in Gaylord) does wonders also. Our local office study suggests a general 10" increase in annual snowfall for every 100 feet increase in elevation - just amazing! I have a place in Elk Rapids and it cracks me up that 10 miles to my ENE gets clobbered. Antrim county has got to be the prime location for the general region(chain o lakes)...well may I say 3 years ago it was..lol. Northern Michiagn has been robbed this Dec. But next late week could be insane up there if the wind flow is good. Ahh if wasn't for my job and various reasons I would totally move full time to my place up there. Awesome Summers and snowy winters. My wife won't go for the move though. Lol. There's always retirement.! In 20 years..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Lets be honest here. No model is king of hour 240. The past couple days the EURO was just showing a massive winter storm around day 7 which it has significantly back away from. This pattern has been very hard on the models. The models have been or at least seems worst than the normal anything past hour 120 is fantasy land. Let me put it this way. If I had to choose one model to use 4+ days out, I'd take the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I'd make out with the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 If you note though the ridge out west into the Pacific is already begining to build up towards AK/nw Canada again. Thus i suspect a glancing blow with that torch. IF the euro is to be believed anyways. As mentioned the past day or 2 the MJO is on the move again and models take it to Phase 6/7 and a few all the way to 1-2. That is alot more favorable for colder/stormier/snowier for this region and points south and east should it reach 8-1. It has been rotting in phase 4-5 for a good while now and yeah as we all see that is the worst area for it to rot. I wont breath easier though till i see it atleast into phase 6. lol Seems it's COD bound after a quick run through phase 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Lock it in. Event of the season for eastern Iowa/western Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Seems it's COD bound after a quick run through phase 6. That is EXACTLY what we want. Thus force the pattern change and then leave it as is which is usually what happens when it heads into the COD. Ofcourse there is always other ways to force a change but as we have seen the past month or so it is not that easy to do without that forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 That is EXACTLY what we want. Thus force the pattern change and then leave it as is which is usually what happens when it heads into the COD. Ofcourse there is always other ways to force a change but as we have seen the past month or so it is not that easy to do without that forcing. That would be awesome. Dont get me wrong, I will take a marginal event any day over no event, and I have admitted that weve gotten more snow than we should have in this rotten pattern...but I cannot WAIT for a pattern change. What I wouldnt give for some powder and to actually have to SHOVEL the snow. The cement has acted as a hot plate almost everytime it snowed this season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 That would be awesome. Dont get me wrong, I will take a marginal event any day over no event, and I have admitted that weve gotten more snow than we should have in this rotten pattern...but I cannot WAIT for a pattern change. What I wouldnt give for some powder and to actually have to SHOVEL the snow. The cement has acted as a hot plate almost everytime it snowed this season so far. Actually this last event was enough to ice up my drive way in the places where cars drove over it when there was snow on the ground...there's actually one little path of ice I can slide all the way down in the morning to get the paper... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Maybe a day or two of highs in the mid 20's around here early next week given relatively consistent modeling of 850 mb temps pushing -18C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 It's looking like the first real good LES event for Lake Michigan may be in store to ring in the new year. Delta T's looking good. May be a multi-band situation, but NW IN and SW MI should be in for some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Looks likes northern Michigan will finally see some snow next week. Is it just me or are we in for another heat wave later next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Better chance East and West of Town from South Boardman to Mancelona and from Maple City to Honor. Traverse City does not really get the big LES event. Correct at least down in town (its a bit of a river valley). The higher ground east and west helps with it's elevation to add lift. The city does get a ton of 3-4" LES events with double digits more occasional. My place was 8 miles SE on higher ground and forested area. In Nov/Dec of '95, we were the snow magnet zone. Winter Storm Warnings every other day it seemed. Had three Sleds, and 36" on the level at Christmas with 6" falling that morning. Couldn't ask for better - the stuff of dreams/winter fantasies.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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