Chicago WX Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Joey told be to give up on next weeks event so that gives us about a week after to get a 1" snowfall.. I'll be optimistic and give us a 33% chance to get an inch before the 20th.. Let the futility tracking season begin here because that's the only tracking we have ATM. up 2 degrees the last hr..lets go for another 2 degrees and top the high of the day so far. lol, Joe has too much warmwantista blood in him. I hope you have the camera ready to take pics of your snowfall in the coming weeks. You always do such a nice job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Still 45F... on Jan 5 at 10pm... crazy.... Sooner or later reality will come back and bite us in the ###... Be it a cold Feb or a nasty ugly spring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Here is the map of the highs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Here's your quick primer on Iowa season snowfall averages (1981-10). Moline IL thrown in considering it's in the Quad Cities. Dubuque: 41.5" Mason City: 41.3" Des Moines: 37.1" Sioux City: 36.6" Waterloo: 35.6" Moline: 31.8" IIRC, MSP averages around 60"? That's a fairly tight gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Speaking of January 2006, I was just checking the data for the entire winter and Cedar Rapids amazingly only had 6 inches of snow after mid December. I may be a weather weenie, but I often don't remember those kinds of season details, beyond a few years back, like many of you do. lol, what a stupid post of mine. I confused Jan 2007 with Jan 2006. Keep it moving, nothing to see here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I can't remember that Jan 2006 event. Must have been a north and western suburbs hit, as ORD only had 5.5" total that month...well below normal. What's interesting about this run of good snowfall seasons, outside of 2009, Januaries have been pretty normal (in terms of snowfall) at ORD and northeast IL. The "damage" has been mainly Decembers and Februaries. Yeah that storm was mainly a NW side storm. It was about a 8:1 wet snow. The wet and fast falling snow broke more tree limbs in my yard than any thunderstorm or ice event that has occurred here. I remember there was power outages and people got stuck out on the roads. 3-5" was forecast earlier in the day, but some convective style snow began to develop that evening and a heavy snow warning was eventually issued. The city stayed rain longer, and got 5" or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 nope they never will. this map solidifies it Jokes aside, whats funny is that 4 years ago almost to the day, the region was experiencing much warmer temperatures. One of the great Jan torches of all time. And it was one of the snowiest winters on record in the Great Lakes. Winter-like weather is coming. mid-Jan pattern flip appears on target. I remember that warm up well, I also remember Mount Pleasant getting pounded with almost 20" of snow with the Super Tuesday storm. Things can and do change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
an uncanny otter Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Here is the map of the highs... Warmer in South Dakota than in Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Dipped down to 41 earlier when winds went calm but back up to 43. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 had the windows completely down this afternoon, geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I can't remember that Jan 2006 event. Must have been a north and western suburbs hit, as ORD only had 5.5" total that month...well below normal. What's interesting about this run of good snowfall seasons, outside of 2009, Januaries have been pretty normal (in terms of snowfall) at ORD and northeast IL. The "damage" has been mainly Decembers and Februaries. 1/20-21/06... Notes: -An ice storm occured south of the heavy snow. Upper Air Maps: Radar: Snowfall Totals: Elgin: 12.0" (High) ORD: 4.7" RFD: 5.0" From the Northern Illinois Snow Events thread ... this the 20 January 2006 event; it was definitely an event that favoured the far west and northwest Chicago suburbs. I remember it being a very hard-hitting, heavy, wet snow that was centered right on rush hour and the early-evening hours. The heaviest snow wasn't as widespread as I had remembered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 IIRC, MSP averages around 60"? That's a fairly tight gradient. Not sure about MSP current 30-yr average, but the longterm average (1884-2010) is nowhere near 60", in fact its just 45.6", not a full 5 inches more than Detroits average in that same timeframe. What makes a typical MSP winter is probably the cold and snowcover. http://climate.umn.edu/text/historical/mspsnow.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Warm today in the Chicago area. Hit 48 today in Schaumburg (on a family trip). Still is not a true torch, though (two days that are 10-15 degrees above average and other slightly above average days does not equal torch). it's a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 50° is going to be an easy feat later today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 lol, Joe has too much warmwantista blood in him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 ORD's record high minimum for January 6 is 41 and would probably be in jeopardy were it not for an early frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Thursday, January 5th: Hi: 50F Lo: 25F Overall Sky Conditions: Partly Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 15MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Snowfall: 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I'm in South Florida right now and the 850 temp is 7 °C, colder than the 11 °C 850 temp in Madison! This must be bizarro world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 sounds good... WEAK COOL FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT IS BAGGY SO AM NOT EXPECTING CAA TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. GUIDANCE IS LIKELY FAR TOO COOL TODAY WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY REALLY GETTING OUT OF HAND. TRAJECTORY METHOD HAS OUR AIRMASS TODAY ORIGINATING FROM EASTERN SD THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HIGHS WERE WELL INTO THE 60S...THOUGH THAT WAS THE RESULT OF STRONG COMPRESSIONAL/DOWNSLOPE WARMING. HAVE OPTED TO BUMP TEMPS UP 1-2 CATEGORIES ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE AND AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT EVEN MID-UPPER 50S MAY END UP BEING A BIT TOO COOL WITH LOW 60S NOT OUT OF REACH IN A FEW SPOTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 IIRC, MSP averages around 60"? That's a fairly tight gradient. 54.0" with the 1981-10 normals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Went to go look if we had a chance at sniffing the daily high record today at LAF, uh no. 64º in 2008. Tomorrow's record even more impressive, 69º in 2008...which is the highest temp ever recorded in January at the airport. I had almost forgot how much it torched back then in this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 point is for 55, would love to make a run at 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I think 60 is quite possible here today. Everyone is my office is wearing sweaters and warm clothes today, little do they realize just how warm it's going to be today.. Just might need to BBQ this afternoon.. Chicago_WX - Finally just realized who your avatar is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 I think 60 is quite possible here today. Everyone is my office is wearing sweaters and warm clothes today, little do they realize just how warm it's going to be today.. Just might need to BBQ this afternoon.. Chicago_WX - Finally just realized who your avatar is.. lol, I found it in one of the old storm threads from last winter...I believe Jim/Kokomo WX posted it. I figured it would be a good rallying avatar for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Just when the ski hills around me have made enough snow to be open we have to have a crappy warm spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Just when the ski hills around me have made enough snow to be open we have to have a crappy warm spell. Where are you at in S MI? Thinking about heading to Swiss Valley this weekend, as they are finally opening with a 36" base. Took this a few min ago. All the snow here will vanish today, but this caught my eye. What an odd Winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 After 21 years of doing this job (and 13 years up here)...I should know better not to respond to the Monday morning quarterbacking...but sometimes I can't help myself. -- Blizzard Warnings have nothing to do with snow amount...all wind speed and visibility criteria. Winds didn't do as well as we thought...so bang, you got us there. Though some locations in Grand Traverse county did pick up nearly a foot of snow...would have done better if we had changed over to snow earlier on the front end...but didn't happen. -- Snowfall amount grids for LES are often too broad and spread out...we don't have the QPF resolution to nail down individual snow bands...and often these things have to be drawn in by hand because guidance QPF is often quite poor. This is particularly true for long, drawn out events where drawing in snowfall/QPF grids every six hours often leads to over forecasting. An issue we've been trying to grapple with for a number of years...but is difficult to avoid given our propensity for multi-band LES morphology. -- If I had the clairvoyance to know exactly where heavier snow bands were going to set up...and be able to integrate this over time as winds shift back and forth by 10-20 degrees spreading the snowfall out over a given area...then I wouldn't waste that talent on weather forecasting. I'd be in the stock market making real money (and no shift work). We appreciate the feedback...it's the nature of the business. GreatLakesWxMan, Thanks for your response. Yeah, pretty easy to armchair qb . As you noted, it's a tough call for an event like this one turned out to be. Don't take it personally, okay? you should post more. I 2nd this motion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 6z GFS has shot of nasty cold coming down the 18th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Going straight from warm and wet to bitter cold and dry would be a bummer to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Where are you at in S MI? Thinking about heading to Swiss Valley this weekend, as they are finally opening with a 36" base. Took this a few min ago. All the snow here will vanish today, but this caught my eye. What an odd Winter so far. Mother Nature is telling us something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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