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January 2012 General Discussion/Obs


KokomoWX

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LOL Do ya think? And all those Bliz Warnings running for days all along the shoreline counties. I didn't see too many 6"+ amounts, especially in those areas. Major bustola..

Usual places scored good - Gaylord for one. Elevation, more than location creates forcing. Maybe they got a new crew up there that's not up to speed with the nuances of the region? idk

After 21 years of doing this job (and 13 years up here)...I should know better not to respond to the Monday morning quarterbacking...but sometimes I can't help myself.

-- Blizzard Warnings have nothing to do with snow amount...all wind speed and visibility criteria. Winds didn't do as well as we thought...so bang, you got us there. Though some locations in Grand Traverse county did pick up nearly a foot of snow...would have done better if we had changed over to snow earlier on the front end...but didn't happen.

-- Snowfall amount grids for LES are often too broad and spread out...we don't have the QPF resolution to nail down individual snow bands...and often these things have to be drawn in by hand because guidance QPF is often quite poor. This is particularly true for long, drawn out events where drawing in snowfall/QPF grids every six hours often leads to over forecasting. An issue we've been trying to grapple with for a number of years...but is difficult to avoid given our propensity for multi-band LES morphology.

-- If I had the clairvoyance to know exactly where heavier snow bands were going to set up...and be able to integrate this over time as winds shift back and forth by 10-20 degrees spreading the snowfall out over a given area...then I wouldn't waste that talent on weather forecasting. I'd be in the stock market making real money (and no shift work).

We appreciate the feedback...it's the nature of the business.

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After 21 years of doing this job (and 13 years up here)...I should know better not to respond to the Monday morning quarterbacking...but sometimes I can't help myself.

-- Blizzard Warnings have nothing to do with snow amount...all wind speed and visibility criteria. Winds didn't do as well as we thought...so bang, you got us there. Though some locations in Grand Traverse county did pick up nearly a foot of snow...would have done better if we had changed over to snow earlier on the front end...but didn't happen.

-- Snowfall amount grids for LES are often too broad and spread out...we don't have the QPF resolution to nail down individual snow bands...and often these things have to be drawn in by hand because guidance QPF is often quite poor. This is particularly true for long, drawn out events where drawing in snowfall/QPF grids every six hours often leads to over forecasting. An issue we've been trying to grapple with for a number of years...but is difficult to avoid given our propensity for multi-band LES morphology.

-- If I had the clairvoyance to know exactly where heavier snow bands were going to set up...and be able to integrate this over time as winds shift back and forth by 10-20 degrees spreading the snowfall out over a given area...then I wouldn't waste that talent on weather forecasting. I'd be in the stock market making real money (and no shift work).

We appreciate the feedback...it's the nature of the business.

you should post more.

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After 21 years of doing this job (and 13 years up here)...I should know better not to respond to the Monday morning quarterbacking...but sometimes I can't help myself.

-- Blizzard Warnings have nothing to do with snow amount...all wind speed and visibility criteria. Winds didn't do as well as we thought...so bang, you got us there. Though some locations in Grand Traverse county did pick up nearly a foot of snow...would have done better if we had changed over to snow earlier on the front end...but didn't happen.

-- Snowfall amount grids for LES are often too broad and spread out...we don't have the QPF resolution to nail down individual snow bands...and often these things have to be drawn in by hand because guidance QPF is often quite poor. This is particularly true for long, drawn out events where drawing in snowfall/QPF grids every six hours often leads to over forecasting. An issue we've been trying to grapple with for a number of years...but is difficult to avoid given our propensity for multi-band LES morphology.

-- If I had the clairvoyance to know exactly where heavier snow bands were going to set up...and be able to integrate this over time as winds shift back and forth by 10-20 degrees spreading the snowfall out over a given area...then I wouldn't waste that talent on weather forecasting. I'd be in the stock market making real money (and no shift work).

We appreciate the feedback...it's the nature of the business.

+100

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41 in Edmonton

44 in Winnipeg

45 in Calgary

43 in Saskatoon

41 in Regina

43 in Int Falls,MN

42 in Minneapolis

52 in Bismarck

This is Winter?

Just sad. If the mid month pattern change comes to fruition lets be hopeful that its enough to bring the anoamlies down across the region, like f*ck. Even Western Europe is scorching. Winter at this point in time is Yellowknife and north, THAT is not NORMAL.

This Winter f**king sucks.

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After 21 years of doing this job (and 13 years up here)...I should know better not to respond to the Monday morning quarterbacking...but sometimes I can't help myself.

-- Blizzard Warnings have nothing to do with snow amount...all wind speed and visibility criteria. Winds didn't do as well as we thought...so bang, you got us there. Though some locations in Grand Traverse county did pick up nearly a foot of snow...would have done better if we had changed over to snow earlier on the front end...but didn't happen.

-- Snowfall amount grids for LES are often too broad and spread out...we don't have the QPF resolution to nail down individual snow bands...and often these things have to be drawn in by hand because guidance QPF is often quite poor. This is particularly true for long, drawn out events where drawing in snowfall/QPF grids every six hours often leads to over forecasting. An issue we've been trying to grapple with for a number of years...but is difficult to avoid given our propensity for multi-band LES morphology.

-- If I had the clairvoyance to know exactly where heavier snow bands were going to set up...and be able to integrate this over time as winds shift back and forth by 10-20 degrees spreading the snowfall out over a given area...then I wouldn't waste that talent on weather forecasting. I'd be in the stock market making real money (and no shift work).

We appreciate the feedback...it's the nature of the business.

Welcome to the board!

This subforum needs more mets posting.

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Honestly, I feel bad for SNEers. There are places that have gone all of November, December, and will probably go at least go 15 days into January without measurable snow. That's rough, even if you got a foot plus in October. Probably feels like that storm happened in 2010-11 to them.

Yeah that is pretty rough...I'd go crazy if that happened here but you have to keep in mind that they've been getting all the snow for the past two years while we've been getting shafted all the time.

But still I feel bad for them.

In a way....its more rough for those out West where they should be freezing there @sses off by now but instead they're torching and barely getting any snow/cold either.

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From the 316pm est Area Forecast Discussion today from the NWS in Northern Indiana...

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY WX CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE

EXTENDED PERIOD. SPLIT FLOW PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH DAY

6...EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATING MOISTURE FEED INTO NORTHERN STREAM

SYSTEMS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ENERGY ON

LEADING EDGE OF STRONG MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC JET EXPECTED TO BREAK

OFF AND COME DOWN OFF AMPLIFYING WEST COAST RIDGE AND SETTLE INTO

THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE

PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS BY MIDDLE OF NEXT

WEEK...WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY/VARIATION OFFERED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE

MODELS WRT PLACEMENT/TIMING/STRENGTH OF RESULTING SFC LOW. STILL

SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO VALIDATE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WITH PRECIP

CHANCES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA ON DAY 6 AND LINGERING INTO DAY 7.

THIS PHASING SOLN WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A PATTERN SHIFT...EVEN IF

TEMPORARY...BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES

GT 100M SUGGESTED BY NEXT THURSDAY...WHICH IF REALIZED WOULD BRING A

SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS TO THE REGION. UNTIL

THEN...EXPECT READINGS TO AVERAGE A GOOD 10F ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH

WEDNESDAY.

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High 47° here today, dewpoint 32° on Jan. 5th - unreal! I was reading on accuweather that if winter wheat growing areas end up getting very cold without snowcover it could be devastating to the crop. Lack of snow in the mountain west, high plains could spell trouble for summer water supply and agricultural interests.

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Yeah that is pretty rough...I'd go crazy if that happened here but you have to keep in mind that they've been getting all the snow for the past two years while we've been getting shafted all the time.

But still I feel bad for them.

In a way....its more rough for those out West where they should be freezing there @sses off by now but instead they're torching and barely getting any snow/cold either.

Well, our climo just doesn't favour big storms and theirs does, so I'm not going to begrudge them on that point. Plus 2007-08/2008-09 was snowier over here in comparison.

And 2009-10 was no where near as brutal there as it was here, but still, they had most of the major MA snowstorms miss them to the south. That winter they probably finished with ~90% of normal snowfall on average.

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LSE

IN MANY LOCATIONS...THIS IS THE WARMEST JANUARY DAY

SINCE JANUARY 8 2003 WHICH WOULD MAKE IT IN THE TOP 10 FOR WARMEST

JANUARY DAYS EVER RECORDED. THE 54 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT ROCHESTER

CURRENTLY IS THEIR THIRD WARMEST JANUARY DAY AND THE WARMEST

JANUARY DAY SINCE JANUARY 25 1981 /54 DEGREES/. THEIR WARMEST

JANUARY TEMPERATURE IS 58 DEGREES ON JANUARY 25 1944.

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I was looking at the records for Rapid City, and somewhat to my surprise, they have four daily January high temp records in the 70's...well five now after today. Other than that, every January daily high record is in the 60's other than two in the 50's.

1/8/2002: 72º

1/9/1953: 74º

1/12/1987: 76º

1/30/1989: 72º

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Late this afternoon I went for a bicycle ride, pretty unheard of in January. I saw several other joggers and cyclists as well. We've had plenty of January thaws, but rarely this warm and they often come with a big, wet, dirty mess thanks to melting snow and ice. Today, however, it is bone dry with not one grain of sand on the roads because we have had no snow whatsoever this winter.

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:thumbsup:

And I agree with you re: the torch. Sure its kinda impressive but certainly not unheard of.. Happens every time with unusual weather, people always forget about prior occurrences that were much more impressive..

Yeah, we've certainly seen absolute blowtorch Januaries...2006 being one of the warmest ever. Ever. I'm not trying to pick on anyone really, but it's hasn't been that long ago that we saw a historically awful January.

I still think the second half of January will offer more in the way of cold and snow for the region...maybe not great amounts of either, but it'll get better.

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Late this afternoon I went for a bicycle ride, pretty unheard of in January. I saw several other joggers and cyclists as well. We've had plenty of January thaws, but rarely this warm and they often come with a big, wet, dirty mess thanks to melting snow and ice. Today, however, it is bone dry with not one grain of sand on the roads because we have had no snow whatsoever this winter.

Geez hawkeye, 0.1"? And the last several years have been crappy comparative to areas just to your northeast too. Whenever I get bitchy about my climo I should look at your sig.

How much did you get in 2007-08?

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:thumbsup:

And I agree with you re: the torch. Sure its kinda impressive but certainly not unheard of.. Happens every time with unusual weather, people usually forget about prior occurrences that were much more impressive..

Warm today in the Chicago area. Hit 48 today in Schaumburg (on a family trip). Still is not a true torch, though (two days that are 10-15 degrees above average and other slightly above average days does not equal torch). Hoping that we can get a legitimate winter storm threat in the next two weeks at least (and probably won't).

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Geez hawkeye, 0.1"? And the last several years have been crappy comparative to areas just to your northeast too. Whenever I get bitchy about my climo I should look at your sig.

How much did you get in 2007-08?

I noticed wisconsinwx has had only 0.1" also. If I had only had a tenth of an inch, I'd just call it a trace, no measurable snow, for futilitiy's sake.

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