Jonger Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Thats some crazy warmth being depicted in the latter hours, When I saw that I was shocked, This winter just doesnt want to happen. Look back in the records and you will find years that shock the mind at how bad they were. I think it was 1881-1882 that was utter garbage for SE Michigan. Detroit got like 15 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Look back in the records and you will find years that shock the mind at how bad they were. I think it was 1881-1882 that was utter garbage for SE Michigan. Detroit got like 15 inches. 1881-82 is mind blowing how warm/snowless it was. Its actually the 2nd least snowy winter on record (13.2")...the granddaddy of snow futility 1936-37 (12.9") was not nearly as warm. But 1881-82 had unprecedented warmth in Dec and Feb. It stands to this day as Detroits warmest winter on record (over 3 degrees warmer then the modern day warmest winters of 1997-98 or 2001-02). This was coming after the king of winters, 1880-81 with its 93.6" of snow and brutal cold. So....1881-82 saw over 80 inches LESS snow than the previous winter, and the DJF temp was 15.4F warmer. Can you say OUCH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 lol what month is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 lol what month is this? Bring on spring severe weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Traverse City, 51.4" lowest season total. I think its a slam dunk to break this record... 2.8" in Alpena.. WOW! Never thought I would see this in my life http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=apx&storyid=76185&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 From John Dee's site: 11-16 DAY FORECAST: The outlook for this time sees a slow breakdown of the pattern than has robbed the central US of any real wintry weather for much of December. The large upper air troughs over eastern Russia, western Alaska and also over Greenland are indicated to become dislodged, which would allow for better chances for cold and snows across North America- especially northern sections of North America. I Hope it comes true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS for 2 runs now shows cold air coming around the 12th... Looks like maybe that is when the pattern change happens? Something has to give... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS and Euro are diverging big time early next week. GFS keeps the flow largely zonal for another week while the Euro continues to insist a big trough will carve out across the east with a big east coast storm and arctic air diving south across the midwest/lakes/ohio valley. I have no idea which is right. Neither model would drop any snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS and Euro are diverging big time early next week. GFS keeps the flow largely zonal for another week while the Euro continues to insist a big trough will carve out across the east with a big east coast storm and arctic air diving south across the midwest/lakes/ohio valley. I have no idea which is right. Neither model would drop any snow here. Euro has been owning and given that it has some support from the Canadian and a few GFS ensembles...i'm leaning hard that direction and hoping for some lake effect snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Traverse City, 51.4" lowest season total. I think its a slam dunk to break this record... http://www.crh.noaa....=76185&source=0 While it's possible Traverse City breaks the record, they can easily get 50 inches of snow in 4 months. They could get that in one month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The EC ensemble mean is not as far west with next week's trough as the op run. Still farther west than the GFS though. Speaking of the op run, how about a 1046 mb surface high in Mexico...you don't see that every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 lol what month is this? Pockets of 16C air in the plains are unprecidented for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Pockets of 16C air in the plains are unprecidented for this time of year. The lack of snow cover is allowing the Chinook winds to cause such major warming, kinda nuts. It's hard to believe that most of the US is not snow covered, only the very northern fringes and the Rockies. The plains are pretty much open and absorbing tons of sunlight when there's no cloud cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS and Euro are diverging big time early next week. GFS keeps the flow largely zonal for another week while the Euro continues to insist a big trough will carve out across the east with a big east coast storm and arctic air diving south across the midwest/lakes/ohio valley. I have no idea which is right. Neither model would drop any snow here. I'm kind of hoping that the storm depicted by the Euro occurs on the 3rd or 5th. Would be an amazing storm, but not one I'd want to drive through! Interestingly, January 2-3 is the anniversary of the big '99 blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Holy smokes: Without snow cover this air is going to modify big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 So lets see, GFS major plains torch, Euro major cold snap... someone is going to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Holy smokes: Without snow cover this air is going to modify big time. holy cow! unless it's predicting snow to come with it no way will you have -20 850's anytime soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 holy cow! unless it's predicting snow to come with it no way will you have -20 850's anytime soon... The lack of snow is more of a surface temp modifier than aloft. That prog is a week out though so it could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 So lets see, GFS major plains torch, Euro major cold snap... someone is going to be wrong. How about a 75/25 Euro/GFS split? I could live with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 While it's possible Traverse City breaks the record, they can easily get 50 inches of snow in 4 months. They could get that in one month. In a day they can get 10-20 inches. Not rare either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 While it's possible Traverse City breaks the record, they can easily get 50 inches of snow in 4 months. They could get that in one month. Track record the last 3 winters would suggest its unlikely but you never know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Track record the last 3 winters would suggest its unlikely but you never know 3 winters vs climo, I will take climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 It seems like next week could turn out to be a loaded gun. IDK something is up and kind of explosive it appears. That trough on the euro isn't right. But it's presence is worthy of attention for development . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS is just stupid. It has the same energy the other models have, but it surges it so far east, so fast, it completely blows my mind. So GFS. While the foreign models have issues in the 144hr timeframe, they should. Sampling is pretty much a guessing game at that point and each ensemble partner has their own guess. GFS progressive bias still there even with the updates in the model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I don't know what to think about the clippers later in the week. The NAM takes the first one too far north for anything while the GFS basically has no snow where the NAM has the heaviest snow. The GFS has snow falling here by tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Clipper to bring in the new year has my full attention now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I don't know what to think about the clippers later in the week. The NAM takes the first one too far north for anything while the GFS basically has no snow where the NAM has the heaviest snow. The GFS has snow falling here by tomorrow night. In general the 12z NAM has it the furthest north, the 12z GEM is just south of the Lakes, and the 18z GFS splits the difference. I would be so happy if I could just get 2 inches of new snow between the two clippers, but I know better than to expect two times the current snowfall to date in a few days time. They will find a way to miss or be mostly rain/slush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Would love to lock in hour 264 of the 18z GFS. If only it would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 In general the 12z NAM has it the furthest north, the 12z GEM is just south of the Lakes, and the 18z GFS splits the difference. I would be so happy if I could just get 2 inches of new snow between the two clippers, but I know better than to expect two times the current snowfall to date in a few days time. They will find a way to miss or be mostly rain/slush. The difference might be what we get as the track. If anything these clippers will help build the snowpack to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 The difference might be what we get as the track. If anything these clippers will help build the snowpack to the north. they would need to produce snow for that to happen, going to be tough with warm boundary layer temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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