buckeye Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Where is there a consensus for a rocking late Jan into Feb? Outside the usual hype mongers of course. Maybe there is for a change in the pattern in that timeframe, or the sensible weather we've experienced all of this winter to date...but I don't see a lot of people calling for copious amounts of cold and snow. Rather, it looks possible we could be finally getting into something resembling winter...details TBD. it's relative.... with what we've had so far, normal will be rocking. As far as a concensus, not everyone but a lot of the mets here in other forums and on other sites are pinpointing mid jan, late jan and into feb. I wonder how much of this is driven simply by riding laws of averages, IOW the thinking that eventually winter weather has to lock in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 3-Jan JB Tweet: "HolyFlip in a climate model.. Old cfs week 4 vs new cfs week 3 for Jan 17-23. gcm's not supposed to suddenly flip" https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi 4-Jan DT post on changes afoot. Hedging his bets on "sustained East Conus Icebox" result, but looks much improved over Nov/Dec. http://www.wxrisk.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Daddylonglegs, I have had a horrible respitory infection since last Wednesday. I had been pumping vitamins, zinc, anything I could think of. I finally went to one of the express clinics New Years day because I couldn't quit coughing. It was horrible. They said a lot of this stuff was going around and gave me some strong anti-biotics... they seem to be working, albeit slowly. Make sure you take it easy. My November respitory infection quickly turned into full blown pneumonia, and I spent 5 days in the hospital. FWIW, my humble (and somewhat educated) opinion is that warm winters tend to lull people into a false sense of comfort, and they dont dress for the air temp. Its 42 and people are out in jeans and a t-shirt, because it is expected to be colder, thus this is "warm". This wears your body down simply attempting to keep a consistant body temp, thus leading to more illness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Make sure you take it easy. My November respitory infection quickly turned into full blown pneumonia, and I spent 5 days in the hospital. FWIW, my humble (and somewhat educated) opinion is that warm winters tend to lull people into a false sense of comfort, and they dont dress for the air temp. Its 42 and people are out in jeans and a t-shirt, because it is expected to be colder, thus this is "warm". This wears your body down simply attempting to keep a consistant body temp, thus leading to more illness. Might be a plausable contributor. Saw a study that was done on deaths related to winter's cold weather. Guess where the worst place was - London, England! Yep, seems that their winter temps in the 40's cause too many to go under-dressed for the temps. They stand outside quite a bit waiting for mass-transit sub-way trains, busses, etc.. and it takes its toll. Who'da thunk it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I'll keep an eye on it. I feel a little better today, but am going to go through a roll to toilet paper with the way my nose is running. I actually woke up with an earache about a week ago...first time since I was a kid that has happened. That went away only to progress to this. I always worry about sinus infections, but everything is pretty clear. 12z GFS shows a pretty good cold shot mid month, but no snow... Need to lay down some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 12z GFS is a swing and a miss timing wise for the potential threat mid next week, but it's really not that far from a major storm. Still something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 12z GFS is a swing and a miss timing wise for the potential threat mid next week, but it's really not that far from a major storm. Still something to watch. The 6z was even bigger swing and a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 ensembles for the most part continue to be farther west and more similar to the ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Euro has sub 498 dm thicknesses into MN/WI by the end of next week...pretty good GFS/Euro agreement on a decent cold blast but would probably be moderated a bit at ground level if no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Didn't know the Euro had been performing poorly latetly. Post from Tip in the NE forum - "You didn't ask... but imo the Euro model sucks ass. These recent D4-5-6 debacles and having been embarrassed by the GFS is exposing the model as overrating - at least relative to the handling over events embedded in the current pattern, that is definitely true. If we change the pattern and the Euro suddenly improved in the middle range, so be it ... The GEFs teleconnectors argued against all these recent phantom Euro storms and won that argument each time...well, the last 2 times anyway; we'll see if the weekend thing sneaks back or not." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Didn't know the Euro had been performing poorly latetly. Post from Tip in the NE forum - "You didn't ask... but imo the Euro model sucks ass. These recent D4-5-6 debacles and having been embarrassed by the GFS is exposing the model as overrating - at least relative to the handling over events embedded in the current pattern, that is definitely true. If we change the pattern and the Euro suddenly improved in the middle range, so be it ... The GEFs teleconnectors argued against all these recent phantom Euro storms and won that argument each time...well, the last 2 times anyway; we'll see if the weekend thing sneaks back or not." TT is lolz. The ECMWF is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Didn't know the Euro had been performing poorly latetly. Post from Tip in the NE forum - "You didn't ask... but imo the Euro model sucks ass. These recent D4-5-6 debacles and having been embarrassed by the GFS is exposing the model as overrating - at least relative to the handling over events embedded in the current pattern, that is definitely true. If we change the pattern and the Euro suddenly improved in the middle range, so be it ... The GEFs teleconnectors argued against all these recent phantom Euro storms and won that argument each time...well, the last 2 times anyway; we'll see if the weekend thing sneaks back or not." It has managed all right w/the pattern...esp compared to the GFS...since he mentions "events"...here are the SLP verifications... D4... D5... D6... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 64F so far in Rapid City, SD...Sioux Falls, SD sitting at 54F... Tomorrow should be warmer out there...maybe the unheard of 70F can be topped. NWS here in LSE thinks we go for the record tomorrow which is 47F (1946) ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Get some green house tomato's going, DLL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Get some green house tomato's going, DLL. You should do it, granny! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I slept for the longest period of time on record, and woke up after the sun rose. Looks like I missed a sunny day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Much warmer day today. Made it up to 43. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Much warmer day today. Made it up to 43. OT, but I have to be in Erie for work tomorrow. Anywhere in the booming metropolis to eat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 OT, but I have to be in Erie for work tomorrow. Anywhere in the booming metropolis to eat? There's a couple small family type restaurants but the food's just okay. Also a Caseys lol. Not much in this dinky little town. There is a Subway just down the road (Moline Road about 5 miles) in Hillsdale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 OT, but I have to be in Erie for work tomorrow. Anywhere in the booming metropolis to eat? probably not. based on the reports from petkovic, everything was leveled by that tornado a few months back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 LAF waxes the rest of central Indiana today. High temps below... lolLAF: 46 HUF: 44 IND: 43 BMG: 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 probably not. based on the reports from petkovic, everything was leveled by that tornado a few months back. LOL. Ironically this town is almost the same population Greensburg KS was before the '07 EF-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Don't really want to plant out this far north until late January. Not enough sunlight to get much growth... With this mutant illness I have, I'll probably be spending spring in an iron lung. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Even though beyond 120hrs the op GFS is pretty worthless, the 00z is kind of depressing to look at. Verbatim it would have us remaining at less than 1" of seasonal snowfall at Jan 20th. Good thing the ensembles and the Euro are showing some signs of life next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Wednesday, January 4th: Hi: 40F Lo: 25F Overall Sky Conditions: Partly Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 18MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Snowfall: 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Wednesday, January 4th: Hi: 40F Lo: 25F Overall Sky Conditions: Partly Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 18MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Snowfall: 0.0" Day 1 of torchhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 January 4th: Hi: 36°, Lo: 24°. Partly cloudy to cloudy conditions today. It will be interesting to see if the clouds get in the way of the warming tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Didn't know the Euro had been performing poorly latetly. Post from Tip in the NE forum - "You didn't ask... but imo the Euro model sucks ass. These recent D4-5-6 debacles and having been embarrassed by the GFS is exposing the model as overrating - at least relative to the handling over events embedded in the current pattern, that is definitely true. If we change the pattern and the Euro suddenly improved in the middle range, so be it ... The GEFs teleconnectors argued against all these recent phantom Euro storms and won that argument each time...well, the last 2 times anyway; we'll see if the weekend thing sneaks back or not." Northern IN met: SOME MINOR TRENDS ADDED THE FORECAST DATABASE...MAINLY BIASING TEMPS UP IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF...GIVEN IT/S CONTINUED STRONG PERFORMANCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 LAF waxes the rest of central Indiana today. High temps below... lolLAF: 46 HUF: 44 IND: 43 BMG: 42 I predict loLAF will smoke everyone again today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 If Winter is going to be like this through the rest of January, bring on Spring... I'm serious. Hard to go anywhere around here w/o hearing the complaints of no ice on the lakes for fishing. Only old, fat ladies are happy about the warmth and they don't count! A beautiful morning nonetheless..... :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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