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January 2012 General Discussion/Obs


KokomoWX

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Don't know about the rest of you clowns, but I've been sicker then a dog the last week. Every ailment you can think of, I've had. This has been by far the worst fall/winter for getting sick since as far back as I can remember. Must be my kids spreading their preschool germs all over.

As may have been brought up before, it seems milder winters often result in more illnesses, perhaps because of the wild temperature swings from very mild weather to the occasional cold snaps, and also because of the dearth of real cold air (which is said to kill off some illnesses).

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Im curious.....last winter, while we were in the midst of an excellent snowcover winter throughout the region (at DTW it was the best since '81-82), quite a few lamented the constant nickel and diming (pre-Feb) and said that the biggest thing to them in a winter was a storm, one massive storm could make or break a winter for them (naturally I ride the snowcover, frequent snowfall train). So Im wondering, with a horrid start to this winter, if some all-time epic historic snowstorm hits in Feb or even Mar, would that override all of these horrible weeks during the first part of winter for those folks? Just a food for thought question really, I dont even remember exactly who was saying what, just the general conversation.

Huge blizzard and the remainder of that good period in Feb 2007 went a long way toward salvaging that winter for me. Almost (but not entirely) made me forget how poorly we started off.

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Sounds right to me... Its just nasty. They actually sent my son home from school and he was doing a lot better! We decided to just keep him out all week.

Talking to others, it sounds like a lot of nasty stuff going around (not flu like, just cold/cough/sore throats/etc). I hate being sick :(

Looking at the NAEFS, sure looks like are big red splotch is shrinking...

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Don't know about the rest of you clowns, but I've been sicker then a dog the last week. Every ailment you can think of, I've had. This has been by far the worst fall/winter for getting sick since as far back as I can remember. Must be my kids spreading their preschool germs all over.

It seems like flu season in Madison hits hard and early any given year. Beer pong spreads things quickly.

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Alcohol...tell me about it. This all started the day after I got blitz (right before Christmas)... Since that day in "recovery", I've felt like crap...I swear the bartender slipped me a "mickey".

I take everything... 50mg zinc, vit C, elderberry, 10K iu of vit D, mg, ca, medicinal mushrooms...green tea... I told the wife I'm ordering a UV lamp that equates to the same light as one would be exposed to on a clear day in Quito, Ecuador...which I will sleep under...naked.

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I'm kinda agnostic about this pattern change at this point. Some of the pro-mets from the NE subforum seem to be indicating there are good signs in the teleconnections, but we seem to be having trouble getting them to move into the <D10 day range.

What I do know is that on January 3rd, I got my first hankering for baseball of the season. So if this winter's going to be a ****show, let's move it along at least.

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Alcohol...tell me about it. This all started the day after I got blitz (right before Christmas)... Since that day in "recovery", I've felt like crap...I swear the bartender slipped me a "mickey".

I take everything... 50mg zinc, vit C, elderberry, 10K iu of vit D, mg, ca, medicinal mushrooms...green tea... I told the wife I'm ordering a UV lamp that equates to the same light as one would be exposed to on a clear day in Quito, Ecuador...which I will sleep under...naked.

Lol wtf. Maybe get some anti-biotics or something instead of all this new age stuff.

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Prince Fielder will look good in a Cubs uniform. Braun will look great sitting on the bench in June. :)

00z GFS shows a little sloppy snow Sunday? then another shot of warmth...

Not even nickel and dimes this season....mostly just pennies...

Yep, was thinking of that as well. We are getting pennied to death. Wait, we have had two or three pennies, but I would rather have had one nickel than two or three pennies.

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As may have been brought up before, it seems milder winters often result in more illnesses, perhaps because of the wild temperature swings from very mild weather to the occasional cold snaps, and also because of the dearth of real cold air (which is said to kill off some illnesses).

I do know germs thrive in low humidity conditions, i.e. heated buildings in winter. But I guess if it is mild out, you can contract illnesses inside or out. It seems like the worst flu and cold seasons should occur when everyone is couped up inside during the colder winters. May be not the case though. One thing that seems to help fend off colds is vitamin D, which is always in short supply in the natural form in the winter!

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Im curious.....last winter, while we were in the midst of an excellent snowcover winter throughout the region (at DTW it was the best since '81-82), quite a few lamented the constant nickel and diming (pre-Feb) and said that the biggest thing to them in a winter was a storm, one massive storm could make or break a winter for them (naturally I ride the snowcover, frequent snowfall train). So Im wondering, with a horrid start to this winter, if some all-time epic historic snowstorm hits in Feb or even Mar, would that override all of these horrible weeks during the first part of winter for those folks? Just a food for thought question really, I dont even remember exactly who was saying what, just the general conversation.

You KNOW my opinion on this matter. :P:devilsmiley: Ofcourse with snowfall it has not been as bad around here this year so far. Better start then last year for here anyways. At this point last winter only 13.2 had fallen. And YES i am happier with this winter so far. While the cold has been rare the times it has been cold it has snowed unlike last winter with all the misses especially just to the south and east of here. Yes i'll take the torch over cold and dry unless it is to protect a deep snowcover.

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Daddylonglegs, I have had a horrible respitory infection since last Wednesday. I had been pumping vitamins, zinc, anything I could think of. I finally went to one of the express clinics New Years day because I couldn't quit coughing. It was horrible. They said a lot of this stuff was going around and gave me some strong anti-biotics... they seem to be working, albeit slowly.

Ok, this pattern change. I look at it as more of the same that we've seen the models do time and again. Keep forecasting pattern changes in the D7-D10 range only to never happen. I called for a change to happen around Jan 10th to 15th and I hope that still works out, but I'm not optimistic. I think its going to be the last 10 days of January when we get into a really good pattern for snow and cold. Lots of warmth overall still looks to be the call in the next week or so.

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Long term discos hinting at the long-awaited change. The mets are discussing it even though it is outside their forecast window. Mouths drooling over the Euro.

IWX:

THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS

AND SUPPORT A FOR POTENT PHASING LONG WAVE TROUGH BY THE END OF NEXT

WEEK...WHICH COULD SUPPORT THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON...GIVEN

STAUNCH WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED FLOW

BLOCKING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A STRONGLY NEGATIVE AO /HINTED AT

IN LONG RANGE ECMWF AND NAEFS SOLUTIONS/. THIS WILL NEED TO BE

WATCHED.

IND:

POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION BY MID

TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U S EJECTS EAST

INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY SHARPENING

POLAR JET STREAM TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW

DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM COMES WITHIN THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST WINDOW.

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Where is there a consensus for a rocking late Jan into Feb? Outside the usual hype mongers of course. :lol:

Maybe there is for a change in the pattern in that timeframe, or the sensible weather we've experienced all of this winter to date...but I don't see a lot of people calling for copious amounts of cold and snow. Rather, it looks possible we could be finally getting into something resembling winter...details TBD.

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FWIW i would call this stunning consensus with among the 0z GFS ensembles with the Op 0z Euro regarding a potential major system for the middle of next week...all things considered.

Euro has had something the past couple of runs...of course stretching from the northeast to now the Midwest. Maybe something to watch for the future. It's about all we got right now...

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Euro has had something the past couple of runs...of course stretching from the northeast to now the Midwest. Maybe something to watch for the future. It's about all we got right now...

I'll def take it, considering this winter, it's hard not to get excited when that many of the ensembles and Euro are showing a decent snow storm for the region...even at this range.

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