Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 12z GFS is a problem. Really no chances of good snow through Jan 12th or further. The persistence of this pattern is shocking. The Pacific and GOA are owning this winter. You can only take optimist views so far before time and reality catches up. There's not enough facepalms for this post. Stop looking at the OP GFS in the extended. OP runs have little skill beyond day 6. Fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 12z GFS is a problem. Really no chances of good snow through Jan 12th or further. The persistence of this pattern is shocking. The Pacific and GOA are owning this winter. You can only take optimist views so far before time and reality catches up. You don't make sense dude. You have been optimistic for a while...now we actually have some light at the end of the tunnel and you're getting down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 yeah im doing a new years inventory for snowfall, looking around to see who's been getting what. there are some awful numberous out there including here (11.8 in montreal with zippo on the ground)......but yours is the worst that ive seen so far! Here are some other bad ones, besides Milwaukee (1.7") and Chicago (1.9"): Moline, IL: 1.4" Bismarck, ND: 3.9" Williston, ND: Trace Minneapolis, MN: 10.3" Duluth, MN: 11.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 There's not enough facepalms for this post. Stop looking at the OP GFS in the extended. OP runs have little skill beyond day 6. Fact. Whoa..hold yer horses. What your seeing in the GFS is in fact the persistence of the pattern and how firmly entrenched it is. Its not unfathomable to think that before Jan 12th the potential of "good" snows is a crap shoot. In have not looked at the ensembles yet FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 holy cripes...the 18z NAM is even stronger with that inversion on Friday morning. Now showing 55F at about 1500 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Whoa..hold yer horses. What your seeing in the GFS is in fact the persistence of the pattern and how firmly entrenched it is. Its not unfathomable to think that before Jan 12th the potential of "good" snows is a crap shoot. In have not looked at the ensembles yet FWIW. As I and others on this forum have said. Your post made it sound like you're locking in the 240-384 hour maps of the 12z GFS. I guess I misinterpreted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Duh, you're right. I'll take the bet too. LAF and Toronto both have to beat MKE. Thing is though, where are we getting the Toronto snowfall from...YYZ? YYZ measures snow and divides by 2. You're golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 holy cripes...the 18z NAM is even stronger with that inversion on Friday morning. Now showing 55F at about 1500 feet. Shorts weather a couple thousand feet up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 YYZ measures snow and divides by 2. You're golden. Yes, I've heard that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Some final totals for the Northern Lower Mi LES outbreak. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=apx&storyid=73243&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Turtle- Almost every time that Miami gets cold, it seems that the chinook is blowing hard: RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 1132 AM MST TUE JAN 03 2012 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT RAPID CITY AIRPORT SD... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 61 DEGREES WAS SET AT RAPID CITY AIRPORT SD TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 59 SET IN 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 We'll use YYZ (Pearson Airport). The downtown site has been unreliable lately. Of course for LAF, you'll have to trust me. Now where did I put that hot plate... Here I recommend this station.....its seems legit compared to all the other stations haha. http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/monthlydata_e.html?StationID=4841&Month=12&Day=1&Year=2011&timeframe=3 And besides this is my station as I dont "live" in Toronto haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Some final totals for the Northern Lower Mi LES outbreak. http://www.crh.noaa....=73243&source=0 Sort of busted for T.City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Here I recommend this station.....its seems legit compared to all the other stations haha. http://www.climate.w...011&timeframe=3 And besides this is my station as I dont "live" in Toronto haha. lol, no. Well, it's legit inasmuch as the data is accurate. However, it's in no way representative of the amount of snow that falls within the City of Toronto. North York would be a good station to use, but like the downtown station, it's had trouble updating lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Crazy stat of the day.. I have more snow now then this time last year! 12.2 2010/11 12.8 2011/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I thought I'd post this in this thread for those that might like to see what it looks like when a heavy lake effect snow squall comes in off the lake: I took these with my cell phone earlier today, so they are a bit grainy ... Here is a huge ball/wall of white rolling in from the lake this morning: And then once it hits shore, this is how it looks: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 lol, no. Well, it's legit inasmuch as the data is accurate. However, it's in no way representative of the amount of snow that falls within the City of Toronto. North York would be a good station to use, but like the downtown station, it's had trouble updating lately. lol.....hmm well it seems legit and I can usually confirm if the end results are as accurate as they are. Well any other station than YYZ or UFT would be preferred and not the Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 lol.....hmm well it seems legit and I can usually confirm if the end results are as accurate as they are. Well any other station than YYZ or UFT would be preferred and not the Island. Yeah, it's fine for north of Toronto, but the seasonal totals are too high to be considered representative of the City of Toronto proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 lol.....hmm well it seems legit and I can usually confirm if the end results are as accurate as they are. Well any other station than YYZ or UFT would be preferred and not the Island. The Toronto stats in your signature for the last 3 seasons have a better average than mine. It's really bad when everyone says Toronto has been bad lately and I average less than them lately! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I thought I'd post this in this thread for those that might like to see what it looks like when a heavy lake effect snow squall comes in off the lake: I took these with my cell phone earlier today, so they are a bit grainy ... Here is a huge ball/wall of white rolling in from the lake this morning: And then once it hits shore, this is how it looks: Amazing Pics!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Im curious.....last winter, while we were in the midst of an excellent snowcover winter throughout the region (at DTW it was the best since '81-82), quite a few lamented the constant nickel and diming (pre-Feb) and said that the biggest thing to them in a winter was a storm, one massive storm could make or break a winter for them (naturally I ride the snowcover, frequent snowfall train). So Im wondering, with a horrid start to this winter, if some all-time epic historic snowstorm hits in Feb or even Mar, would that override all of these horrible weeks during the first part of winter for those folks? Just a food for thought question really, I dont even remember exactly who was saying what, just the general conversation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The Toronto stats in your signature for the last 3 seasons have a better average than mine. It's really bad when everyone says Toronto has been bad lately and I average less than them lately! You didn't clear 25" in 2009-10? I thought only us and northern MI got screwed that winter. Welcome to the club! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Im curious.....last winter, while we were in the midst of an excellent snowcover winter throughout the region (at DTW it was the best since '81-82), quite a few lamented the constant nickel and diming (pre-Feb) and said that the biggest thing to them in a winter was a storm, one massive storm could make or break a winter for them (naturally I ride the snowcover, frequent snowfall train). So Im wondering, with a horrid start to this winter, if some all-time epic historic snowstorm hits in Feb or even Mar, would that override all of these horrible weeks during the first part of winter for those folks? Just a food for thought question really, I dont even remember exactly who was saying what, just the general conversation. For me an epic system like that would override the pattern we have been in. It would have to have at least 2 feet of snow with it. I dont mind constant snow cover but the monster storms are just so much more exciting. Whatever floats your boat I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 You didn't clear 25" in 2009-10? I thought only us and northern MI got screwed that winter. Welcome to the club! I cleared it by 2" but last year Toronto outdid me by a foot so that takes you over me. It's been bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Im curious.....last winter, while we were in the midst of an excellent snowcover winter throughout the region (at DTW it was the best since '81-82), quite a few lamented the constant nickel and diming (pre-Feb) and said that the biggest thing to them in a winter was a storm, one massive storm could make or break a winter for them (naturally I ride the snowcover, frequent snowfall train). So Im wondering, with a horrid start to this winter, if some all-time epic historic snowstorm hits in Feb or even Mar, would that override all of these horrible weeks during the first part of winter for those folks? Just a food for thought question really, I dont even remember exactly who was saying what, just the general conversation. Assuming we stay in this relatively snowless pattern for the remainder of the cold weather season, save for an epic, all time blizzard that drops 18"+ of snow, I could probably honestly grade this winter in the Bs somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Crazy stat of the day.. I have more snow now then this time last year! 12.2 2010/11 12.8 2011/12. crazy stat indeed! Not here though, but we actually have had more days with meas snow this season! THRU JAN 3rd .....................2010-11......2011-12 snowfall...............9.2"..........5.8" biggest storm.......6.3"..........2.4" meas snow......9 days......10 days T+ snwcvr......26 days......17 days 1"+ snwcvr.....21 days........4 days 5"+ snwcvr.....18 days........0 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Im curious.....last winter, while we were in the midst of an excellent snowcover winter throughout the region (at DTW it was the best since '81-82), quite a few lamented the constant nickel and diming (pre-Feb) and said that the biggest thing to them in a winter was a storm, one massive storm could make or break a winter for them (naturally I ride the snowcover, frequent snowfall train). So Im wondering, with a horrid start to this winter, if some all-time epic historic snowstorm hits in Feb or even Mar, would that override all of these horrible weeks during the first part of winter for those folks? Just a food for thought question really, I dont even remember exactly who was saying what, just the general conversation. I would say yes if it happens during the week (meaning likely snow day), and is at least 15 inches with 25 mph winds or greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 BTW...wrt this talk of 1967-68, the winter total at DTW was 30.6", but this winter actually featured two decent storms (7.6" Jan 13/14 and 7.7" Mar 22/23), a peak depth of 10" (mid-January) and 1"+ snowcover days were 48, right around normal. Made the most of the snow that winter. Two of the years thrown around in this thread did feature a steady increase between Milwaukee-Toronto... 1955-56 MKE: 33.7" DTW: 45.6" TOR: 68.4" 1967-68 MKE: 12.1" DTW: 30.6" TOR: 46.0" Several other Nina winters show a marked increase from Milwaukee to Detroit to Toronto, so while Bows theory may end up coming true, I still say 20"+ season total is a lock for LSE and MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Yeah, it's fine for north of Toronto, but the seasonal totals are too high to be considered representative of the City of Toronto proper. lol.....well the actualy measurements from the city of Toronto are to low to be considered as a likely candidate. We'll average the totals out in the end from all three stations. fair enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Im curious.....last winter, while we were in the midst of an excellent snowcover winter throughout the region (at DTW it was the best since '81-82), quite a few lamented the constant nickel and diming (pre-Feb) and said that the biggest thing to them in a winter was a storm, one massive storm could make or break a winter for them (naturally I ride the snowcover, frequent snowfall train). So Im wondering, with a horrid start to this winter, if some all-time epic historic snowstorm hits in Feb or even Mar, would that override all of these horrible weeks during the first part of winter for those folks? Just a food for thought question really, I dont even remember exactly who was saying what, just the general conversation. An epic storm will do for me. I'm more about the technical aspects of major synaptic systems than how pretty the ground looks for weeks after. Season snow totals are just a number to me. Intensity and rates of storm make me blush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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