snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Not always. True it probably gives a better chance at seeing a good winter versus Ninos...but there are some real clunkers as well. But I know you know this... The 10th is/was way too soon for changes. There are too many things that have to transpire for us to really change this pattern. If you look up to the north and northwest, I think the changes will be starting relatively soon...but our realization of them will be farther down the road. Maybe. I do think we'll get into a stretch where wintry opportunities will be present past day 7...but sustained winter is far down the road (last week to 10 days of this month or early Feb...again, maybe). Despair for the true winter lover runs deep...but keep the faith. Yes, there are clunker La Nina's no doubt. But to clarify, my point was that it would be unprecedented for there to be a La Nina that yielded widespread <25% of normal snowfall for the Lakes the first two months of met. winter. And that would be a risk we'd run if by the 10th we don't see a pattern change on the horizon. I mentioned the 4 La Nina's that had equal or worse December snowfall in Toronto than 2011-12. Those were 1928-29, 1950-51, 1998-99, 1999-00. All of those winters, even 1999-00, saw at least a partial recovery in January. For there not to be a recovery to some degree this month would be unprecedented for a Nina, at least per mby data. Maybe you could use ORD data to verify if this is representative of the western Lakes as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Dead on, it appears. May have dipped below 14 between hours around sunrise, but we'll see. Looks like there was an intrahour 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Yes, there are clunker La Nina's no doubt. But to clarify, my point was that it would be unprecedented for there to be a La Nina that yielded widespread <25% of normal snowfall for the Lakes the first two months of met. winter. And that would be a risk we'd run if by the 10th we don't see a pattern change on the horizon. I mentioned the 4 La Nina's that had equal or worse December snowfall in Toronto than 2011-12. Those were 1928-29, 1950-51, 1998-99, 1999-00. All of those winters, even 1999-00, saw at least a partial recovery in January. For there not to be a recovery to some degree this month would be unprecedented for a Nina, at least per mby data. Maybe you could use ORD data to verify if this is representative of the western Lakes as well. Got ya. Alas, I don't think we have to have a huge pattern change per se to start tipping the balance to snowier outcomes (from Jan 10th to 20th...or end of the month). Granted it won't satisfy all in the region/forum, but I think there will be opportunities. It's been rough no doubt. But I have a sense of optimism right now...take it FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Mike, as far as Chicago and bad Decembers in Nina winters...and what followed in January. Top 5 worst since 1949-50... 1971-72 Dec: 0.3" Jan: 11.7" 1998-99 Dec: 1.0" Jan: 29.6" 1955-56 Dec: 2.1" Jan: 1.2" 1967-68 Dec: 2.7" Jan: 12.7" 1999-00 Dec: 3.5" Jan: 13.6" 1955-56 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Got ya. Alas, I don't think we have to have a huge pattern change per se to start tipping the balance to snowier outcomes (from Jan 10th to 20th...or end of the month). Granted it won't satisfy all in the region/forum, but I think there will be opportunities. It's been rough no doubt. But I have a sense of optimism right now...take it FWIW. I threw you off with that flippant "la nina is our friend" remark. Historically, bad La Nina = about 35" here. Getting to that seems like it would require divine intervention at this point. That's why I've adjuded this La Nina as being so unfriendly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Yes, there are clunker La Nina's no doubt. But to clarify, my point was that it would be unprecedented for there to be a La Nina that yielded widespread <25% of normal snowfall for the Lakes the first two months of met. winter. And that would be a risk we'd run if by the 10th we don't see a pattern change on the horizon. I mentioned the 4 La Nina's that had equal or worse December snowfall in Toronto than 2011-12. Those were 1928-29, 1950-51, 1998-99, 1999-00. All of those winters, even 1999-00, saw at least a partial recovery in January. For there not to be a recovery to some degree this month would be unprecedented for a Nina, at least per mby data. Maybe you could use ORD data to verify if this is representative of the western Lakes as well. Hmm...even though 1950-51 wasnt snowy at all in December we had 50cm/20" in November lol...so that made up for that. 1999-00 was a horrible winter. 1998-99 would have been bad if it wasnt for Jan 99. 1928-29 was crap lol like 99-00 too so lets see. It started off slow for us too last year and amazingly YYZ recorded .8cm more in December 2011 than Dec 2010 As for the pattern change, I do think after Jan 10th things will start improving, first across the West, and then the East but slower. I do expect a slight Weak SE Ridge anomaly for the remainder of January which should create a nice gradient pattern like 07-08. Feb 08 is a perfect example. With the possible building Aleutian Ridge things are looking up as that will pump up heights across Alaska creating a Weak -PNA/-EPO Pattern sending WCanada into the deep freezer. The PV is expected to weaken by mid month and based on my calculations I think we may create a pseudo EB -NAO anomaly around the 10th-15th, lets see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I threw you off with that flippant "la nina is our friend" remark. Historically, bad La Nina = about 35" here. Getting to that seems like it would require divine intervention at this point. That's why I've adjuded this La Nina as being so unfriendly. No, my bad...gut reaction I guess. I know you know climo/ENSO very well, but some on here like to throw out absolutes all too frequently. My apologies. That all being said, despite this disaster so far, I'd take my chances with a Nina over a Nino every day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Mike, as far as Chicago and bad Decembers in Nina winters...and what followed in January. Since 1949-50... 1971-72 Dec: 0.3" Jan: 11.7" 1998-99 Dec: 1.0" Jan: 29.6" 1955-56 Dec: 2.1" Jan: 1.2" 1967-68 Dec: 2.7" Jan: 12.7" 1999-00 Dec: 3.5" Jan: 13.6" 1955-56 4 out of 5 ain't bad. That 55-56 number is horrendous. In contrast, Toronto saw 31.9" in Dec 1955 and Jan 1956 combined. What was the seasonal total that year for Chicago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Getting to mid-January with less than 2" snowfall= would need a miracle to end up with a decent year, even if we had an active February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 4 out of 5 ain't bad. That 55-56 number is horrendous. In contrast, Toronto saw 31.9" in Dec 1955 and Jan 1956 combined. What was the seasonal total that year for Chicago? 26.3" November (5.9") and February (13.2") were the big months that season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 This is one of the crazier inversions I can recall on a forecast sounding around here. Still kinda hard to believe it verifies to this extent unless we go calm/nearly calm at the surface. To give some context, if this were in Chicago, it would be near freezing at ground level and about 50 degrees at the top of the Willis Tower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Hmm...even though 1950-51 wasnt snowy at all in December we had 50cm/20" in November lol...so that made up for that. 1999-00 was a horrible winter. 1998-99 would have been bad if it wasnt for Jan 99. 1928-29 was crap lol like 99-00 too so lets see. It started off slow for us too last year and amazingly YYZ recorded .8cm more in December 2011 than Dec 2010 Let's hope this winter doesn't end up looking like what 1998-99 would have looked like withouth Jan 2-15 and March 1-7. Pearson was atrocious at measuring snow last December. They ended up with more than 7cm or whatever is indicated. The measurement for the 14th is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 First ice floes of the year on Lake Mendota: http://quad.aos.wisc.edu/webcam_movies/last_north_60min_640x480.mov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 This is one of the crazier inversions I can recall on a forecast sounding around here. Still kinda hard to believe it verifies to this extent unless we go calm/nearly calm at the surface. To give some context, if this were in Chicago, it would be near freezing at ground level and about 50 degrees at the top of the Willis Tower. lol, crazy indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 This is one of the crazier inversions I can recall on a forecast sounding around here. Still kinda hard to believe it verifies to this extent unless we go calm/nearly calm at the surface. To give some context, if this were in Chicago, it would be near freezing at ground level and about 50 degrees at the top of the Willis Tower. love it, thanks for this post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 26.3" November (5.9") and February (13.2") were the big months that season. 1955-56 was a sick winter for my area atleast. Toronto got about 68.5" or 174cm that year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I will be in Chicago Thursday through Saturday. Temps not looking like they will hit 50, but it will probably be close. Good weather, though. I don't mind that there will not be a winter storm in that period. Beyond, though, hopefully some action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 1955-56 was a sick winter for my area atleast. Toronto got about 68.5" or 174cm that year Odd winter. Chicago, Madison, Milwaukee, and Green Bay all took it on the chin while everyone else pretty much got to or exceeded their seasonal averages. Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Let's hope this winter doesn't end up looking like what 1998-99 would have looked like withouth Jan 2-15 and March 1-7. Pearson was atrocious at measuring snow last December. They ended up with more than 7cm or whatever is indicated. The measurement for the 14th is ridiculous. Yeah....if we can grab a week or two of Jan 1999 or a week or two of Feb 2008 we can build up nicely, lol.....and thats if EC measures properly at YYZ. Vaughan recorded about 17.8cm in Dec 2011, 10cm more than YYZ? wtf? I'm only about 20-25 mins away from YYZ and your probably 15 mins? YYZ is crap shot...I dont buy it. 12z Euro at 120 hours.....interesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Odd winter. Chicago, Madison, Milwaukee, and Green Bay all took it on the chin while everyone else pretty much got to or exceeded their seasonal averages. Hmm... Hmm...that does seem suspicious but interesting. Here you can look at it your self. http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/monthlydata_e.html?timeframe=3&Prov=ONT&StationID=5051&mlyRange=1840-01-01|2006-12-01&Year=1955&Month=01&Day=01 Maybe if we had daily analysis charts for that Winter showing the storms and there tracks, that would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Totally off topic but I just found out today that Oshawa, Ontario has NEVER had a daily snowfall of 12"+... Record is held in 1982 11.8" (29 cm). Thats incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Totally off topic but I just found out today that Oshawa, Ontario has NEVER had a daily snowfall of 12"+... Record is held in 1982 11.8" (29 cm). Thats incredible There trying to fund and raise awareness about "Global warming" by purposely measuring lower so we see the effects of climate change, haha..jk jk But yeah thats unheard off. What about the Jan 1999 blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Hmm...that does seem suspicious but interesting. Here you can look at it your self. http://www.climate.w...Month=01&Day=01 Maybe if we had daily analysis charts for that Winter showing the storms and there tracks, that would be nice. No I believe you. I guess I was just thinking of the similarities to this winter, with the above four mentioned being far behind so far. But the Toronto part of the quotient doesn't fit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I took an up close look at the lake, the Madison side is frozen. Yesterday it was completely open! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Mike, as far as Chicago and bad Decembers in Nina winters...and what followed in January. Top 5 worst since 1949-50... 1971-72 Dec: 0.3" Jan: 11.7" 1998-99 Dec: 1.0" Jan: 29.6" 1955-56 Dec: 2.1" Jan: 1.2" 1967-68 Dec: 2.7" Jan: 12.7" 1999-00 Dec: 3.5" Jan: 13.6" 1955-56 1967-68 is the last time mke had under 20" with a total of 12.8" lol - la crosse had 7.7" detroit and chicago weren't a total failure with around 30" and toronto made a run at 50" Going to ride and grind that winter like my prom dates leg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I guess one way to look at is that most of the region was due for an abortion of a winter. So why not just get it out of the way and move on to next year. In 11 months it will be a fresh start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Made it down to 12F this morning, which is tied for the coldest on the season (Dec. 10th). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I'm holding out hope through January, if we finish the month below 5", i'm going all in for the record. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I guess on way to look at is that most of the region was due for an abortion of a winter. So why not just get it out of the way and move on to next year. In 11 months it will be a fresh start. Because most of us are sicko's about snow and there is still a good month and a half of good winter left after the pattern change that many of locked in come mid-month...and then there is the stat padding months of march and april. Still a lot of winter left to get those to the east and south near avg while I end up with 17.4" and a months supply of Hurricane High Gravity Lager on, Timmy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 3, 2012 Author Share Posted January 3, 2012 @BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi is this lurking? the turn around from dec 1-Jan 15 2007 and Jan 16-feb 15 2007. Didn't something good come at the end of the turn around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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