KokomoWX Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I will set the mood with the GFS at 384 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Nah, lets try 00z GFS at 192hr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Looking forward to, hopefully, at least doubling my December snowfall of 0.6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The recently updated CFS forecast for January is the lolz. Not that I give much credence to it (whether it shows cold or warm)...and I just wanted to post it for laughs, but...well, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The recently updated CFS forecast for January is the lolz. Not that I give much credence to it (whether it shows cold or warm)...and I just wanted to post it for laughs, but...well, lol. Did the computer that make that outlook burst into flames? I wouldn't be shocked if it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The recently updated CFS forecast for January is the lolz. Not that I give much credence to it (whether it shows cold or warm)...and I just wanted to post it for laughs, but...well, lol. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Probably won't go below 0F this winter. Climate change will push Wisconsin back into the subtropics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 At one time the Vikings were fishing in parts that are now covered in ice. At one time the great lakes (before the glaciers carved them) was a tropical warm climate. Climate change is part of the history of the planet. Comes and goes....just ask Gore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The Euro, in the last couple runs, has shown a decent trough digging in the central/east at the end of the period, but the arctic air remains bottled up way north in Canada so the 850 temps within the trough are no big deal. It also shows more mild air moving in beyond day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I am in Pennsylvania visiting family for Christmas and can't believe how green the grass is. I'm not really shocked, with how warm this winter has been. But they could definitely mow their yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The recently updated CFS forecast for January is the lolz. Not that I give much credence to it (whether it shows cold or warm)...and I just wanted to post it for laughs, but...well, lol. lol at the gif title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 EURO is close to something special at 192. Just a li'l too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 529 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2011 .DISCUSSION... 312 PM CST FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES/TYPES/AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH TEMPS. ANYONE DREAMING OF A GREEN CHRISTMAS DEFINITELY GOT THEIR WISH WITH WEATHER MUCH MORE TYPICAL OF SAINT PATRICKS DAY LIKELY LEAVING JOLLY SAINT NICK SINGING CHRISTMAS O`CAROLS THIS YEAR! DESPITE A DECENT SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...A MILD START TO THE DAY AND NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE THROUGH PEAK HEATING ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 40S TODAY. THE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS THAT GAVE ME A SCARE THIS MORNING IS GETTING MUNCHED AWAY AT FROM THE WEST BY THE DRY AIR AND EVEN THE BEGINNINGS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ALREADY AS NOTED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTING TO BACK MN/IA. WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS FOR US TONIGHT WITH 925MB TEMPS PROGGED TO CLIMB 2-4C BY 12Z MONDAY WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW LIKELY TO GIVE ANY LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS SIDESWIPING THE NE CWA THE BOOT OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. TEMPS TONIGHT ARE A BIT TRICKY AS THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE WINDS DECOUPLE LATER THIS EVENING...BUT WITH DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION HAVE OPTED TO NOT GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT. TOMORROW`S HIGH TEMPS ARE TRICKIER THAN ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND RATHER LIMITED WARMING. WHILE THE SUN MAY BE AT ABOUT ITS LOWEST ANGLE OF THE YEAR...STILL EXPECTED NEARLY 100% SUNSHINE THROUGH THE TIME OF MAX HEATING AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION HAVE A STRONG SUSPICION THAT THE LOW/MID 40S BEING OFFERED UP BY GUIDANCE IS TOO COOL. MONDAY ACTUALLY SEEMS LIKE A CANDIDATE FOR A 50F DAY...BUT JUST CANT MUSTER UP THE COURAGE TO GO THAT MUCH ABOVE GUIDANCE SO HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH MID/UPPER 40S. THE MOST CONTENTIOUS PART OF THE FORECAST DEFINITELY COMES IN THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME AS CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST MEANDERS EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH ITS NORTHERN STREAM COUNTERPART. MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR HAVING ABSOLUTE FITS TRYING TO RESOLVE PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES...AND THEY HAVE DONE THEIR FAIR SHARE OF BOUNCING AROUND WITH THIS SYSTEM THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. HAVING SAID THAT THE 12Z SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON NOT PHASING THESE WAVES UNTIL THEY ARE SAFELY EAST OF OUR CWA...WHICH WOULD CONFINE MOST OF THE PRECIP TO OUR SOUTHEAST 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA. P-TYPE WOULD MOST LIKELY BE RAIN TRANSITIONING TO A WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMS (IF ANY) OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN MOST CWA. THE CAVEAT TO THIS FORECAST IS THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WAS STILL OFFSHORE AND NOT FULLY SAMPLED AT 12Z THIS MORNING...SO PROBABLY BEST TO CHECK IN AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AFTER IT GETS SAMPLED AT 00Z. ONCE THESE WAVES PHASE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BECOME A HEALTHY SNOW MAKER FOR LOCATIONS JUST EAST OF US. IN THE WAKE OF TOMORROW NIGHT`S SYSTEM WE TRANSITION INTO A BUMPY ZONAL FLOW WITH NUMEROUS LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION...ONLY SPACED ABOUT 24 HOURS APART WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW THIS TIME OF YEAR TENDS TO BE A MILD PATTERN FOR US AS ARCTIC AIR REMAINS BOTTLED UP WELL TO OUR NORTH. WHILE WE WILL SEE ALTERNATING SHOTS OF WARM AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD THE DURATION OF EACH WILL BE SO SHORT THAT IT WILL SEEMINGLY HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS WHICH SHOULD AVERAGE 10F+ ABOVE NORMAL. IF THE TIMING OF ONE WARM ADVECTION SHOTS ALIGNS ITSELF WELL WITH SUNSHINE AND DAYTIME THEN WE COULD MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT 50F BEFORE THE YEAR IS OUT...WITH THURSDAY AND SUNDAY CURRENTLY LOOKING THE MOST PROMISING DAYS FOR THAT TO OCCUR. GIVEN THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK AND GENERALLY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW IF THERE IS ANY PRECIP DURING THE WED-SUN TIME FRAME IT LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND OF THE LIQUID VARIETY. THERE ARE SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE TO COLDER WEATHER JUST BEYOND DAY 7...BUT THAT`S BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST AND DEFINITELY SUBJECT TO CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THE START OF 2012. IZZI *************************************************************** The LOT (Chicago WFO) Area Forecast Discussion prepared by Gino Izzi and issued this afternoon ... The 12z/25 Dec. Euro supports the bolded statement. On the other hand, out toward 240 hours, it would appear from the 500-hPa flow forecast that the arctic air would be on the transient side though a return to the low-amplitude, zonal flow does not appear to be present even then. Alas, it is over a week out, and this represents only something to watch. It is interesting that the GFS ensemble forecast--the poor forecast-to-observed correlations aside--of the NAO and AO does suggest a dip in both indices around or just before the first of the year, with a decidedly downward trend in both toward neutral in the next couple of weeks. On the other hand, we have seen this on a couple of other occasions this winter only to be disappointed upon verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Making sure the snow blower and shovel are greased up... Big snows coming for WI this winter yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 The recently updated CFS forecast for January is the lolz. Not that I give much credence to it (whether it shows cold or warm)...and I just wanted to post it for laughs, but...well, lol. holy sh*t that's brutal lol they almost had to come up with a new color on the warm end of the scale for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Making sure the snow blower and shovel are greased up... Big snows coming for WI this winter yet. Wow, I've never seen you this optimistic. I suppose it is playing the percentages that we're now due for an active wintry period in the next couple months after this torchy rainy period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Wow, I've never seen you this optimistic. I suppose it is playing the percentages that we're now due for an active wintry period in the next couple months after this torchy rainy period. Gut is feeling good and its hardly ever wrong. We have at least 40" coming yet. Works for me. Not expecting anything remotely, ghd (look east) but, 2 to 4, 4-10" events along with some nickle and dimes will get us there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 If you want to see a crazy looking pattern look at the Euro around day 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Gut is feeling good and its hardly ever wrong. We have at least 40" coming yet. Works for me. Not expecting anything remotely, ghd (look east) but, 2 to 4, 4-10" events along with some nickle and dimes will get us there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 If you want to see a crazy looking pattern look at the Euro around day 9. Big D7 storm around here, and the first I've seen all winter with serious cold air to work with. Talk about a weird system, sfc low moves around the IN/MI/OH border for 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 If you want to see a crazy looking pattern look at the Euro around day 9. Nuts. Even if I got mostly rain from it, it'd still be interesting to observe just for its meteorological value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 If you want to see a crazy looking pattern look at the Euro around day 9. ha, i just saw that. Deep trough over Miss and OH valley eventually cuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 12z GFS = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 12z EURO still going to be the most amplified with the D7-8 trough, but it appears as though it's not going to go nuts like the last two runs did. Makes sense, considering the 0z EURO ensembles were as progressive as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Big D7 storm around here, and the first I've seen all winter with serious cold air to work with. Talk about a weird system, sfc low moves around the IN/MI/OH border for 24hrs. The 0z is definitely interesting. That would be a good 3-6" snowfall for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 12z GFS = Thats some crazy warmth being depicted in the latter hours, When I saw that I was shocked, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Amazing how different the UKIE/EURO are from the GFS at D7. GFS has an almost zonal flow with minor s/w ripples traversing from W/E. EURO and UKIE want to carve out a huge longwave trough in the east. GEM is kinda in the middle (has a trough, not as amplified). Edit: looks like the 18z GFS is going to try and dig a trough, although it's slower and further east with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Amazing how different the UKIE/EURO are from the GFS at D7. GFS has an almost zonal flow with minor s/w ripples traversing from W/E. EURO and UKIE want to carve out a huge longwave trough in the east. GEM is kinda in the middle (has a trough, not as amplified). Edit: looks like the 18z GFS is going to try and dig a trough, although it's slower and further east with it. At THIS moment in time i am willing to go with the euro. MJO has picked up steam again and most models now bring it to phase 6/7 line. THAT is what is preferred for this region for cold/snow/storminess. Whether the storm actually happens and where remains to be seen ( not everything works out as planned/suposed to ) but we should start seing changes with the pattern that is better for cold/snow/storminess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Amazing how different the UKIE/EURO are from the GFS at D7. GFS has an almost zonal flow with minor s/w ripples traversing from W/E. EURO and UKIE want to carve out a huge longwave trough in the east. GEM is kinda in the middle (has a trough, not as amplified). Edit: looks like the 18z GFS is going to try and dig a trough, although it's slower and further east with it. At THIS moment in time i am willing to go with the euro. MJO has picked up steam again and most models now bring it to phase 6/7 line. THAT is what is preferred for this region for cold/snow/storminess. Whether the storm actually happens and where remains to be seen ( not everything works out as planned/suposed to ) but we should start seing changes with the pattern that is better for cold/snow/storminess. GFS op is definitely an outlier for the day 5-7 amplifying CONUS wave. If it verifies as is on the EC it will be one of the best cold shots this winter...even if transient in nature. UK/CMC/EC/ECMENS and even the GFS ensembles suggests a much more amplified wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 At one time the Vikings were fishing in parts that are now covered in ice. At one time the great lakes (before the glaciers carved them) was a tropical warm climate. Climate change is part of the history of the planet. Comes and goes....just ask Gore. Ya, coral is basically our state rock here. People still find sharks teeth occasionally in Michigan too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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