Hoosier Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Not a complete pattern change...yet, but more chances at winter, in short doses, look to be in the offing. Probably the best we can hope for right now. I guess anything is better than what we've been in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Maybe a lake effect window with the big EC storm? That is definitely worth watching. 12z Euro has 850 mb temps around -15C over LM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 That is definitely worth watching. 12z Euro has 850 mb temps around -15C over LM The lake is running pretty warm right now as well, so delta Ts could be intense. If it wasn't the Euro, i wouldn't even bother mentioning it but it's been far and away the premier model this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Careful, the ensembles show a wide range of solutions, some build a powerpacked SE ridge. obviously a D7 solution is going to be variable but thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Careful, the ensembles show a wide range of solutions, some build a powerpacked SE ridge. Something in between would likely be nice for the Great Lakes and a potential early January winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The lake is running pretty warm right now as well, so delta Ts could be intense. If it wasn't the Euro, i wouldn't even bother mentioning it but it's been far and away the premier model this winter. When the cold air does run over the lakes - that warm water is going to fuel a snow extravaganza! For example Lake Michigan: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Yeah, I doubt any major atlantic blocking is coming, but +PNA does the trick for awhile, then comes 2nd half of February and the pattern goes el torcho and gives 2000 a run for its money lol. That was really nice, at just the right time. Careful, the ensembles show a wide range of solutions, some build a powerpacked SE ridge. I don't want to sully this thread with my nonsense, but I like that your pushing an endless torch. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 New 12Z GFS really trends toward NAO- with huge trof (duplicate of analogue years backing to SW and phasing of jets eastern Pacific) late in the period. Also notable ridge pushing toward AK.. Tremendous High 1060+. I know, la la land..now lets watch for any new trend development with the models as time evolves. This the second time this pattern has emerged late on GFS and now ensemble NAO projections are south /negative/. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appco...mageSize=M http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appco...mageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Bump. The lakes are gonna come alive next week. Seriously wondering if the cold depicted on the guidance will be more of transient nature, or will it actually stick around. can't remember a winter where I've been glued to the pacific and AO. Things are switching as planned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Just bring me some winter, that's all I want. Have been working way too much, so haven't been watching the weather much (my weather diary is 10 days behind) It would be nice to see some snow, and some cold, even if it's only for a couple of weeks. Boring weather for the most part. Hopefully January brings us some level of excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Hope that a +PNA might help "stir" things up. Wondering if in a few days the guidance really starts to latch on to a shift in the pac features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 We're going to get our nice 2-3 day shot of arctic air, but it's a little disheartening that on 12/31 a fundamental pattern change in the not too distant future is not a secured outcome. There's some evidence that the polar vortex will finally get dislodged, but these ensembles (both EURO and GFS) seem to have been forecasting that for the last two weeks, only to delay it time and time again. OP EURO still has a raging +AO through D10. I'll stick to my call for a pattern change starting between Jan 10-15, but the latter date seems more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Gefs are going -negative pna however, this was not expressed in the 12z op run(except for the ECMWF). Somebody is wrong. Will from NE thread thinks we're going into a -PNA pattern, IIRC. So that may not be where our salvation rests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Yup. The GFS and GGEM aren't getting it yet, likely. Atlantic needs to come to the rescue, The Atlantic is shot for the foreseeable future...and beyond. It's Pac side or bust. We're still looking outside the scope of the 10-15 day range for potential "realized" changes me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 At the least the models are starting to hint at a colder pattern. For the first time all winter, the later periods of multiple runs of the GFS are showing consistent cold that sticks around for more than a day or two. This is something we haven't seen yet this winter. Of course, it may not be realized but at least things appear to be heading in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 8-10 day 500MB means starting to look a little better as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 This isn't good. This mornings Duluth's NWS forecast discussion: LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SEVERAL-MONTH-OLD PATTERN OF A DEEP AND STRONG PACIFIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CANADA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. STRONG WARM AND DRY CHINOOKS WILL PERIODICALLY DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL CANADIAN THROUGH THE MONTANA ROCKIES THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA...BRINGING SPRING LIKE WARMTH AND A DRY COLUMN. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ANYWHERE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BECOME WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS...NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO RECORD WARMTH AS FREEZING LEVELS EXCEED TWO MILES ALTITUDE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACH 10C ON FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME COOLING BUT CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FOLLOWING WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH CONTINUED EXTREMELY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. Looks like I am not going to get my snowmobile out of the garage anytime soon. We need a lot more snow then we got this weekend to get the trails up to snuff esp here in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 This isn't good. Looks like I am not going to get my snowmobile out of the garage anytime soon. We need a lot more snow then we got this weekend to get the trails up to snuff esp here in town. I wish I had your problem...lol. . Places in the MW have barely 1" of snow this season. Places in metro Detroit have not used snowplows this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Pattern going forward looks improved but still no cigar in the short/med range. Guidance showing a breakdown in the PAC in the fantasy time frame. Mid/late month looks like a target date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 At the least the models are starting to hint at a colder pattern. For the first time all winter, the later periods of multiple runs of the GFS are showing consistent cold that sticks around for more than a day or two. This is something we haven't seen yet this winter. Of course, it may not be realized but at least things appear to be heading in the right direction. And this from The Weather Centre site blog: Interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 And this from The Weather Centre site blog: Interesting.. That would be wonderful news. Dont get me wrong, Im thankful weve had several light bouts of snow, more than much of the region, but our season total has nickled its way up to 5.8" imby (6.7" at DTW) yet not once have I had to shovel (I shoveled a bit of slush Dec 5th but it wasnt really a necessity), much less see plow piles. Cannot stand it much longer, Im dying for just a simple nice blanket of snow accompanied with snow piles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 That would be wonderful news. Dont get me wrong, Im thankful weve had several light bouts of snow, more than much of the region, but our season total has nickled its way up to 5.8" imby (6.7" at DTW) yet not once have I had to shovel (I shoveled a bit of slush Dec 5th but it wasnt really a necessity), much less see plow piles. Cannot stand it much longer, Im dying for just a simple nice blanket of snow accompanied with snow piles! Yeah - already turning a corner nobody believed would ever come ('cept perhaps Mr. Deedler). From this map, I see that the serious snow zone has been to our north and east. I could easily see that expanding S. and W. as we move forward into a more favorable pattern. Its not the conventional snowpack to the NW expanding SE, but hey, who said Ma Nature has to make every year the same 'ol routine time and time again. Just look at the last few winters for example. Not saying we're through with torches either; see 2007-08 for good examples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 ugh, not sure those ridiculous maps needed to be posted in 2 threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 ugh, not sure those ridiculous maps needed to be posted in 2 threads I want to vomit on long range maps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I want to vomit on long range maps.. I've never been much of a fan myself, but those maps include no reasoning and come across as 100% pure weenie wishcasting, definitely not worthy of cross thread posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I've never been much of a fan myself, but those maps include no reasoning and come across as 100% pure weenie wishcasting, definitely not worthy of cross thread posting. Exactly. Like betting the farm on what the Farmers Almanac tells you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 To play devils advocate here..those maps are a representation of possible tracks during a typical La Nina. Given this is a pattern thread this shouldn't be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 That would be wonderful news. Dont get me wrong, Im thankful weve had several light bouts of snow, more than much of the region, but our season total has nickled its way up to 5.8" imby (6.7" at DTW) yet not once have I had to shovel (I shoveled a bit of slush Dec 5th but it wasnt really a necessity), much less see plow piles. Cannot stand it much longer, Im dying for just a simple nice blanket of snow accompanied with snow piles! ....I think our storms are knockin on the door man. Lot's of shoveling to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 3-Jan JB Tweet: "HolyFlip in a climate model.. Old cfs week 4 vs new cfs week 3 for Jan 17-23. gcm's not supposed to suddenly flip" https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi 4-Jan DT post on changes afoot. Hedging his bets on "sustained East Conus Icebox" result, but looks much improved over Nov/Dec. http://www.wxrisk.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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