michsnowfreak Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Skilling really thinks this is going to happen. Lots of stats from past winters that started like this to support that thinking. Agree. And keep in mind, the starter of this thread has seen quite a few decades of midwest winters, if I trust anyone who sniffing out a pattern change, its Mr. Deedler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 lol @ euro at 240. Another New years eve snowstorm possible! If I can find ONE thing to complain about in the 78" winter I saw in 2007-08, it was the NY storm. Only 1.8" imby, but yet it actually changed to rain and in the end I was stuck with a crust of barely 1" while Detroits northern burbs had over a foot on the ground. Never have I been that screwed before. Even DTW, just a spit west of me, had 5.5". (I had my karma Mar 4/5 when my area was jackpot with 10.3", though still it was different than NYrs because at least everyone in SE MI had 4"+). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Yeah...but remember? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I was in Saginaw county. Was really disappointed how narrow/small the double digit area ended up being. Only about 5" where I was (map matches perfectly) so it was nothing special there. But Detroit Metro FTW! I wish I'd known that back then, I would've headed that way to check it out. In April '75, there was another storm that dumped with 3-4 inch/hr rates with the sweet (15-18") axis from Lansing through Flint and on east of there. South towards Detroit, it really dropped off sharply because temps were marginal. I was growing up a bit east of Flint and that 17-18" storm total is still my biggest single storm. Visibilities were non-existent. Everything came to a standstill except snowmobiles! Only disappointment was no snow day because we were already on spring break - hah! I remember trying out for little league baseball in warm sunny weather that early May, and there was still big piles of snow everywhere. The New Years '08 storm evened the totals for the '75 storm, 33 years later LOL! I actually drove out to Ann Arbor. They had 7" and everything was caked in gorgeous snow (my lawn had a 1" crust on it). If ever there is a time to get the most royal screwing possible, i suppose it is 5 days before a record Jan torch and during a winter where snowfall is 3 FEET above normal even with the screwing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 If I can find ONE thing to complain about in the 78" winter I saw in 2007-08, it was the NY storm. Only 1.8" imby, but yet it actually changed to rain and in the end I was stuck with a crust of barely 1" while Detroits northern burbs had over a foot on the ground. Never have I been that screwed before. Even DTW, just a spit west of me, had 5.5". (I had my karma Mar 4/5 when my area was jackpot with 10.3", though still it was different than NYrs because at least everyone in SE MI had 4"+). Yea it was crazy. I was in frankenmuth that weekend where they got 16 inches. Never seen snow come down so hard. Drove home 2 days after and only had 6 inches at my house in macomb. For some reason, more often than not, areas just the NW seem to do better in snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 We do seem to be heading for one of the warmest Decembers ever recorded in Toronto, going back to 1841. The only equally mild Decembers I can find are 2001 and maybe 1923. It's incredible really, and fascinating from a meteorological standpoint. Unless we get some cold shots, even December 1931 will be beat! WOW to beating 1931! We will probably crack the top 20 warmest Decembers here, but even top 10 looks like a very long shot, much less one of the warmest. I keep seeing 1923 brought up (I think that was the year where Chicago never has a sub-freezing high before New Years). That was interesting in that December was extremely mild, then Jan-Mar very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Skilling really thinks this is going to happen. Lots of stats from past winters that started like this to support that thinking. Skilling is a little late to the party. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31103-least-snowiest-starts-for-chicago-in-history-thru-december/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Skilling is a little late to the party. http://www.americanw...-thru-december/ lol yeah I know. Was at WGN last night and was talking to him about it. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 lol yeah I know. Was at WGN last night and was talking to him about it. Fingers crossed. Awesome. But yeah, let's hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Yea it was crazy. I was in frankenmuth that weekend where they got 16 inches. Never seen snow come down so hard. Drove home 2 days after and only had 6 inches at my house in macomb. For some reason, more often than not, areas just the NW seem to do better in snowstorms. Elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Yea it was crazy. I was in frankenmuth that weekend where they got 16 inches. Never seen snow come down so hard. Drove home 2 days after and only had 6 inches at my house in macomb. For some reason, more often than not, areas just the NW seem to do better in snowstorms. Different storm, but same winter. You're thinking of February 5th-6th, 2008 (still much better than New Years 2008 IMO). Frankenmuth only saw 2-6" on New Years 2008. I picked up a grand total of 2" (thanks to 1 hour of 2" per hour rates after starting off as all rain, by far the biggest disappointment of the season). You did relatively well with this one too (I remember you said you received 8"?). http://www.crh.noaa....now200801021003 ...SAGINAW... OAKLEY 5.0 43.14N 84.16W BRIDGEPORT 5.5 43.37N 83.88W FREELAND 2.0 43.52N 84.11W HEMLOCK 2.0 43.41N 84.23W SAGINAW 3.2 43.41N 83.94W Meanwhile, they did pick up upwards of 16-18" on February 5th-6th, 2008 (while you only picked up 6-8"?). I picked up a very quick 4-5" with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Different storm, but same winter. You're thinking of February 5th-6th, 2008 (still much better than New Years 2008 IMO). Frankenmuth only saw 2-6" on New Years 2008. I picked up a grand total of 2" (thanks to 1 hour of 2" per hour rates after starting off as all rain, by far the biggest disappointment of the season). You did relatively well with this one too (I remember you said you received 8"?). http://www.crh.noaa....now200801021003 ...SAGINAW... OAKLEY 5.0 43.14N 84.16W BRIDGEPORT 5.5 43.37N 83.88W FREELAND 2.0 43.52N 84.11W HEMLOCK 2.0 43.41N 84.23W SAGINAW 3.2 43.41N 83.94W Meanwhile, they did pick up upwards of 16-18" on February 5th-6th, 2008 (while you only picked up 6-8"?). I picked up a very quick 4-5" with this one. Forecast was Snow and Sleet changing to Freezing Rain then back to snow. Accumulations of 3-5 inches.... All snow 10.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 SpartyOn is gonna be eating the pattern change corn bread like no other. Weenie food on the whispers of a back end loaded pattern come mid/late Jan. And I'm basing this prediction off nothing scientific in nature. Go....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Different storm, but same winter. You're thinking of February 5th-6th, 2008 (still much better than New Years 2008 IMO). Frankenmuth only saw 2-6" on New Years 2008. I picked up a grand total of 2" (thanks to 1 hour of 2" per hour rates after starting off as all rain, by far the biggest disappointment of the season). You did relatively well with this one too (I remember you said you received 8"?). http://www.crh.noaa....now200801021003 ...SAGINAW... OAKLEY 5.0 43.14N 84.16W BRIDGEPORT 5.5 43.37N 83.88W FREELAND 2.0 43.52N 84.11W HEMLOCK 2.0 43.41N 84.23W SAGINAW 3.2 43.41N 83.94W Meanwhile, they did pick up upwards of 16-18" on February 5th-6th, 2008 (while you only picked up 6-8"?). I picked up a very quick 4-5" with this one. Comparing maps, one will notice that a small area of St. Clair county saw almost 30" just with those two storms (within slightly more than a month's time). For SEMI, it won't get much better than that! I guess those were good times..too bad the pattern was like permanent March temps and melted-down ever time in between. Could've set some serious depth records if it was cold like '81-82! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted December 24, 2011 Author Share Posted December 24, 2011 Looks like we got off topic here... Latest NAO/GFS/ECMWF continue a somewhat subtle but definite trend change early in the New Year. Something to watch especially if persists>>>> http://www.cpc.ncep....a/nao.sprd2.gif I saw someone mentioned the earlier solar flux was waning, I wondered where we "were" there. I know this sounds "out-there somewhat" but several times when I noted significant solar waxs/wanes in decreasing/increasing solar cycles in both summer/winter, there was a possible lag effect on the hemi -circulation. Case in point note; the strong solar surge we saw this fall and the change in the pattern AO?NAO later this Nov-Dec to a AO+/NAO+. There are more and more studies on this phenomena . Back in the winter of 2001-02, it looked like it would be a cold winter and CPC actually went out with below normal temps for much of the northern third. We had huge peaks in the solar cycle during that fall-winter of '01 and the hemi-circulation pattern changed that winter. I remember noticing that and wanting to mention that as a "possible " influence on why our winter turned out so mild in my Outlook/Winter Review that spring but was "discouraged" by the hier ups as to much speculation (nothing concrete mind you, but very notable non-the-less). A big topic that I feel is MORE important than given credit is the influence the sun has on changes in hemispheric wind flows. Then lo and behold, Joe D'Aleo (Icecap) wrote about that later on 2001-02. This obviously transcends into the bigger Global Warming debate (of which no way I'm gonna talk about now) http://icecap.us/ima...the_Climate.pdf Chk out the latest (all charts)>>> http://www.swpc.noaa...ycle/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Looks like we got off topic here... Latest NAO/GFS/ECMWF continue a somewhat subtle but definite trend change early in the New Year. Something to watch especially if persists>>>> http://www.cpc.ncep....a/nao.sprd2.gif fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Looks like we got off topic here... Latest NAO/GFS/ECMWF continue a somewhat subtle but definite trend change early in the New Year. Something to watch especially if persists>>>> http://www.cpc.ncep....a/nao.sprd2.gif Unfortunately the NAO and AO forecasts for the next 2 weeks still look to be on the positive side per the GFS ensembles anyway, so I think anything more than transient cold shots may be hard to come by for the forseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 I had sometime before the Christmas festivities to look at the evolving weather pattern the next few weeks: http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2011/12/benign-weather-pattern-to-become-more.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 I had sometime before the Christmas festivities to look at the evolving weather pattern the next few weeks: http://weatherhistor...ecome-more.html Evan Bentley of IWX posted an article on their website concerning winters in which SBN had received under 4" of snow by December 24th. He also eludes to a possible pattern change by the middle of the month IF the AO would slide toward neutral. The article also shows that out of 7 winters with less than 4" of snow by Dec 24th, 6 of the following January's also ended up well below normal, 1994-95 being the exception. Even that year, SBN ended up 20" below normal the season. The other six years ended up being AT LEAST 35" below normal! http://www.crh.noaa....=76724&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 I went normal to above snow and we still have plenty of time for around normal. BTW, take a look at the winter of 1899-1900. For the guys on here beacthin' cause not enough snow...if we get...we get it. We've had many many snowy winters lately, geeze. The winter of 1899-1900 was a Jeckle Hyde and quite interesting. We had less than 10" of snow at Detroit by the end of Jan! Then........... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/1899.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 In my area we still have plenty of time to reach normal or a bit above normal snowfall. 4 December's in recent memory that yielded low snowfall - January snowfall picked up considerably. 1998-1999: Dec. 1.1", Jan: 40.2". Above normal for season. 61.3", 161% 1999-2000: Dec. 4.6", Jan: 19.1". Above normal for season. 41.8", 110% 2001-2002: Dec. 2.7", Jan: 11.7". Below normal for season. 31.7", 83% 2004-2005: Dec. 1.2", Jan: 39.3". Above normal for season. 59.4", 156% 2011-2012: >Dec. 25th, 1.9". Jan: ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 MKE's least snowiest season on record, 1884-85, was also the first year snowfall was recorded (at least, according to my research). It featured 11.3", not 9 inches or so as I previously thought. I wonder what the statistical probability of setting a new record is at this point in the season with a grand total of 1" recorded so far. Unfortunately, I think it is very possible (quite unlikely, but possible nonetheless). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 MKE's least snowiest season on record, 1884-85, was also the first year snowfall was recorded (at least, according to my research). It featured 11.3", not 9 inches or so as I previously thought. I wonder what the statistical probability of setting a new record is at this point in the season with a grand total of 1" recorded so far. Unfortunately, I think it is very possible (quite unlikely, but possible nonetheless). That 1884-85 number looks highly suspect compared to the other sites (linked below). I have it in the chart I made, but don't really believe it. I think the 12.1" from 1967-68 is your true number to shoot for...if that's your thing. http://www.americanw...nowfall-totals/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 That 1884-85 number looks highly suspect compared to the other sites (linked below). I have it in the chart I made, but don't really believe it. I think the 12.1" from 1967-68 is your true number to shoot for...if that's your thing. http://www.americanw...nowfall-totals/ Yeah, I know, but I will still count it for official purposes. Kinda sketchy though to see our snowiest and least snowy winters back to back in the first two years that snow amounts were officially recorded for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Here in this part of the U.P. they keep them open as long as there is snow to ride on. The local motels and other business are suffering right now. This time of year is when they make a lot of their yearly income. In terms of post-March 31 trail riding, I will never forget heading up around April 5, 2007 for Easter weekend. The motel owners we stayed at had been raking leaves off bare ground earlier that week before something like 4-6 feet of powder fell. As I recall, the groomers were done for the season on 3/31, and the season was effectively over until that freak storm. We rode down a single lane of tracks and bounced off shoulder level powder down the usually well-travelled Trail 3 up the Keweenaw to Houghton and beyond. The side trails were awesome too, although there we navigated over/around a few wet or flowing spots along the way. Awesome weekend it was. I remember Skilling covering it well, with accounts from John Dee making both the WGN airwaves and Tribune weather page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Euro def looks like a pattern change is ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Euro def looks like a pattern change is ahead. I still have my doubts about how long it sticks given the lack of a real fundamental change in the blocking regime (or lack thereof) but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I still have my doubts about how long it sticks given the lack of a real fundamental change in the blocking regime (or lack thereof) but we'll see. Not a complete pattern change...yet, but more chances at winter, in short doses, look to be in the offing. Probably the best we can hope for right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Maybe a lake effect window with the big EC storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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