New Year...new pattern? Let's stir things up.....

[wxhstn74]

NAO/AO falling into negative territory?? Back to the sling-shot southwest to northeast jet with a lot of Arctic air to work with. It's been stored up there with the freezer door shut...will it open? Many possibilities in the NAO/AO falls, especially in Jan!

[toronto blizzard]

Many of us on this board would love for this sickening pattern to finally die! but we have seen this many times before where the forecasts show the NAO/AO going negative in the long range only to have it going positive as we get closer . Until signs show that this pattern will break we're unfortunately going to have to endure this pattern for I think at least another 2-3 weeks

[turtlehurricane]

Many of us on this board would love for this sickening pattern to finally die! but we have seen this many times before where the forecasts show the NAO/AO going negative in the long range only to have it going positive as we get closer . Until signs show that this pattern will break we're unfortunately going to have to endure this pattern for I think at least another 2-3 weeks

GFS shows the pattern breaking in a mere 5 days.

[Powerball]

Another fear some do have is when the pattern does finally "flip", it "flips" too hard and we then end up with a cold but dry pattern with everything being surpressed SE of us.

[wxhstn74]

Man...what a bunch of defeated attitudes here.

[SpartyOn]

Man...what a bunch of defeated attitudes here.

Lots of winter left. Not sure why anyone would toss towel. Back end loaded La Nina's never disappoint.

[Jonger]

Lots of winter left. Not sure why anyone would toss towel. Back end loaded La Nina's never disappoint.

Too bad the northern Michigan snowmobile trails close March 31st regardless. One entire month lost already.

[dmc76]

Another fear some do have is when the pattern does finally "flip", it "flips" too hard and we then end up with a cold but dry pattern with everything being surpressed SE of us.

agree

[Geos]

Another fear some do have is when the pattern does finally "flip", it "flips" too hard and we then end up with a cold but dry pattern with everything being surpressed SE of us.

We just need the SE ridge to steer storms into our region. I wouldn't expect deep plunges of cold air all the way to the Gulf Coast in a winter like this.

[Thundersnow12]

Lots of winter left. Not sure why anyone would toss towel. Back end loaded La Nina's never disappoint.

Skilling really thinks this is going to happen. Lots of stats from past winters that started like this to support that thinking.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

JB has the first three weeks of January as a torch. Take it to the bank.....

[weatherpsycho]

Thanks Bill. I look forward to the pattern change and think it is going to happen as some of the signs are looking better (just wish it was not in model la la land).

As for the defeated feeling: I can't speak for the people who only love snow falling & don't do winter sports but I do fully understand the frustrated attitude from us winter sport enthusiasts who are struggling (like Jonger). Christmas break is usually one of the high points for winter sport activities. I love to ski and these temps have been so bad the ski hills can't even make enough snow. 10 days off with nothing to do except the same indoor crap we have been doing for the past several weeks . While Decembers in SEMI may not always be snowy it is rare that a 2-3 hour drive north and west there is no snow either to play in.

In the end for me & winter sports enthusiasts it is more frustration then defeat.

[Hoosier]

Many of us on this board would love for this sickening pattern to finally die! but we have seen this many times before where the forecasts show the NAO/AO going negative in the long range only to have it going positive as we get closer . Until signs show that this pattern will break we're unfortunately going to have to endure this pattern for I think at least another 2-3 weeks

I agree that we need to be extra cautious with these 2 week NAO/AO projections. At this point I'm writing off the first 1-2 weeks of January in terms of a sustained pattern change (doesn't mean someone can't get lucky with a storm) and then hopefully the real turnaround happens.

[Stebo]

This is a bit of good news to see the NAO trending downward, anything to get us away from where we are at right now however I would really like to see this one go negative:

Although even this looks to eventually trend closer to neutral which would be great.

[Stevo6899]

lol @ euro at 240. Another New years eve snowstorm possible!

[Ajdos]

lol @ euro at 240. Another New years eve snowstorm possible!

Yeah...but remember?

[Justin]

I will definitely be watching this potential pattern change, as its closer in terms of timing on the models than some of the other supposed changes that had been forecast over these last few weeks.

I am encouraged that the indices on the AO seem to want to come around, time will certainly tell. A small/minor change could certainly result in some good potential around New Years so that has my interest as well. I've advised clients that warmer than avg. will be the rule thru New Years, I may need to change that around a bit. I just want to see hard evidence that vortex around Alaska starts actually moving/re-positioning before getting really excited.

[Stevo6899]

Yeah...but remember?

I was in frankenmuth that weekend!!

[IWXwx]

lol @ euro at 240. Another New years eve snowstorm possible!

Patrick Murphy of IWX seems interested in this Euro scenario in his long term disco. In fact he steps out beyond the forecast period to make this comment:

THEREAFTER A MORE FULL LATITUDINAL TROF/PLAINS

CYCLOGENESIS TO DEVELOP AS STRONG ERN ASIA/JAPAN VORTEX TRACKS TO

LEE OF ROCKIES BY WEEKS END AND BEARS WATCH FOR POTNL NEW YEARS EVE

SYSTEM INTO OH VLY.

Combine this with the projected tanking of the NAO in this timeframe may be just what the doctor ordered to give winter a kick start.

[snowstormcanuck]

Patrick Murphy of IWX seems interested in this Euro scenario in his long term disco. In fact he steps out beyond the forecast period to make this comment:

THEREAFTER A MORE FULL LATITUDINAL TROF/PLAINS

CYCLOGENESIS TO DEVELOP AS STRONG ERN ASIA/JAPAN VORTEX TRACKS TO

LEE OF ROCKIES BY WEEKS END AND BEARS WATCH FOR POTNL NEW YEARS EVE

SYSTEM INTO OH VLY.

Combine this with the projected tanking of the NAO in this timeframe may be just what the doctor ordered to give winter a kick start.

Maybe I was too quick to throw out the possibility that this winter is in fact the resurrection of 1998-99

And hey, this is probably the first 384 GFS prog in more than a week that DOESN'T look like sodomy with a rusty nail:

[wishforsnow]

Too bad the northern Michigan snowmobile trails close March 31st regardless. One entire month lost already.

Here in this part of the U.P. they keep them open as long as there is snow to ride on. The local motels and other business are suffering right now. This time of year is when they make a lot of their yearly income.

[Organizing Low]

Maybe I was too quick to throw out the possibility that this winter is in fact the resurrection of 1998-99

And hey, this is probably the first 384 GFS prog in more than a week that DOESN'T look like sodomy with a rusty nail:

when will the february 2009 blizzard be let off the hook?

[RogueWaves]

Yeah...but remember?

I was in Saginaw county. Was really disappointed how narrow/small the double digit area ended up being. Only about 5" where I was (map matches perfectly) so it was nothing special there. But Detroit Metro FTW! I wish I'd known that back then, I would've headed that way to check it out. In April '75, there was another storm that dumped with 3-4 inch/hr rates with the sweet (15-18") axis from Lansing through Flint and on east of there. South towards Detroit, it really dropped off sharply because temps were marginal. I was growing up a bit east of Flint and that 17-18" storm total is still my biggest single storm. Visibilities were non-existent. Everything came to a standstill except snowmobiles! Only disappointment was no snow day because we were already on spring break - hah! I remember trying out for little league baseball in warm sunny weather that early May, and there was still big piles of snow everywhere. The New Years '08 storm evened the totals for the '75 storm, 33 years later LOL!

[MadTown]

Here's to hoping for a better outlook on New Years. Heading to Mercer Wi for some riding, and it doesn't look good now. Give me hope guys!!!

[A-L-E-K]

re: the nnew years time frame, about 4.5 of the 0z GFS ensembles had something in play, i guess that's out next long shot fantasy event to watch.

[Jonger]

Here in this part of the U.P. they keep them open as long as there is snow to ride on. The local motels and other business are suffering right now. This time of year is when they make a lot of their yearly income.

Good to know... I saw a few years that looked pretty decent till mid April.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

We do seem to be heading for one of the warmest Decembers ever recorded in Toronto, going back to 1841. The only equally mild Decembers I can find are 2001 and maybe 1923. It's incredible really, and fascinating from a meteorological standpoint. Unless we get some cold shots, even December 1931 will be beat!

[Thundersnow12]

12z GFS has a parade of clipper in the long range.

[Snowstorms]

12z GFS has a parade of clipper in the long range.

Seems reasonable with the enhanced Polar Jet thanks to the Nina. Seems like the Nina is starting to fight back and starting to send the Polar Jet further south which it should do typically considering WCanada has been boiling too, relative to there normals that is.

[Snowstorms]

Analayzing stratospheric temperatures and forecasts for the next few weeks I believe we should start seeing a down turn in terms of the AO come early January with perhaps a fully developed -AO anomaly by week 3, perhaps earlier at best in Jan. AP index remains quite low and Solar Flux continues to decline. Could bode well for strong easterlies across the Stratosphere, this combined with the down falling QBO.

If the Stratosphere warms up nicely this may weaken the PV across the North and allow it too either split or move further south to finally allow the anomalies too cool down across the East. Certanitly we want some blocking to allow for favorable WInter like conditions across our region but we dont want an extremely overpowed -AO/NAO anomaly like in 2009-10 but given the differences in Stratospheric temperatures/Atlantic SST's to last year and 2009 I'd lean closer to minimal blocking with the mothly index remaining above -1.5 for the most part.

Strong low level Easterlies continue across the Pacific, so the Nina is certainly in control, just not across North America for the most part besides the Bermuda High anomaly.

With the STJ as active as it is, I'd suspect a few good storms to form in January/February if conditions are right. We just need dat god dam cold air.

As an example lets observe Jan 1965.

First 10 days of da month;

We notice some weakly positive height anomalies across Southern Greenland but we notice a decently strong LP anomaly across the North Pacific with the Aleutian Ridge much farther West thus it allows a ridge to develop across the East (-PNA).

Last 20 days;

Now we notice a nice Scandinavian ridge across Europe, with a huge improvement across the Pacific with a nicely developed +PNA/-EPO pattern and lower heights across the East, thus the last 20 days of Jan 1965 were quite cold across the East thanks to pattern change that had started to take shape within the first 10 days of Jan. Seems like a EB -NAO?

Could we see something similar this year? Lets see.

Does anyone have raw stratosphere temperature anomalies from 1965?

Thanks!