Deck Pic Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I looked at our 5 torchiest Ninas since 1950 1949-50, 1973-74, 1974-75, 1998-99, 2007-08 Even based on 1981-2010 norms, the sample averaged 3.4 degrees above normal for DJF (FWIW, this post is about temps but the snow average was 9.9") The average number of high temps of 39 or lower for the entire OCT-APR period for the sample was 16.6 1998-99 had the highest number at 25 days and 1975-75 and 2007-08 tied for the least at 13 days So far this winter we have had 0 days So I am taking solace and comfort in knowing that we will probably have double digit number of days with highs in the 20s or 30s.....And since warministas have become the new rage including CWG's target audience, I plan on gloating on every single one of these days that we have...Considering highs in the mid 40s have prompted warministas to make comments like, "Matt, why is so cold?", "ughh, I can't believe winter is here so soon", "Matt, this weather sucks, I can't believe how cold it is", even a day with a high of 37-39 will have maximum impact in ruining their day, and I anxiously await our 1st one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Awesome, couldn't agree more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 People wanting mild weather during winter make me wanna puke! I've got your back man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 we have a pretty solid shot at having the first december ever without a high below 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 we have a pretty solid shot at having the first december ever without a high below 40. Are you counting down the days for that to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Are you counting down the days for that to happen? sort of. december averages about 7 in the past 30 yrs without factoring in enso. the longer we go without it getting horribly cold at least we know the shorter it is till it starts to warm up. though i guess nina can help cold linger later than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 sort of. december averages about 7 in the past 30 yrs without factoring in enso. the longer we go without it getting horribly cold at least we know the shorter it is till it starts to warm up. though i guess nina can help cold linger later than usual. Nothing worse than a cold late march and april. Especially after a mild winter. This winter seems like a good year to burn our nerves with crappy patterns followed by a -ao/nao when it doesn't matter anymore this far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 sort of. december averages about 7 in the past 30 yrs without factoring in enso. the longer we go without it getting horribly cold at least we know the shorter it is till it starts to warm up. though i guess nina can help cold linger later than usual. You can pretty much guarantee the spring will be wet and miserable. We will even get the token slop snow in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 So far this winter we have had 0 days So I am taking solace and comfort in knowing that we will probably have double digit number of days with highs in the 20s or 30s...... I don't know whats going on at CWG, but aside from the legitimate troll value, at the current date this post is pointless. Seems to me thorough progression since early November clearly indicates this is going to be a back loaded winter, somewhat like a blend between 1978/79 and 2006/07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 man.. rainstorm would be having a field day here at amwx with this winter so far. good thing "it" is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 we have a pretty solid shot at having the first december ever without a high below 40. And the last day this year was February 22nd, when the high was 37. I believe that DC has never gone 10 months previously without a high below 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 After the late December peak, the AO showing signs of tanking for early January... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 After the late December peak, the AO showing signs of tanking for early January... http://www.cpc.ncep....a/nao.sprd2.gif Thats the NAO, isn't as meaningful to the total hemispheric state, directly, like the AO is as far as cold goes, because you can have a "fake" -NAO with a westward oriented polar vortex and we'll still torch in a Nina. I think the +AO should spike again into early/mid January before the tides begin to turn as there is no downwelling mechanism below 5HPA now....can't circumvent physics. IMFO it'll likely be a signle pattern changing storm later in January that'll set the ball rolling for us in February featuring repetative coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This weather is making me seriously depressed. I would rather it snow, but at the least I wish we could get cold. Ian, you should see if the think tank will move to Atlanta. Seems more your type of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Thats the NAO, isn't as meaningful to the total hemispheric state, directly, like the AO is as far as cold goes, because you can have a "fake" -NAO with a westward oriented polar vortex and we'll still torch in a Nina. I think the +AO should spike again into early/mid January before the tides begin to turn as there is no downwelling mechanism below 5HPA now....can't circumvent physics. IMFO it'll likely be a signle pattern changing storm later in January that'll set the ball rolling for us in February featuring repetative coastals. The AO also showing signs of tanking after a late December peak, it's certainly on it's way toward neutral, and there is a good bit of spread (uncertainty) for the first week of January. It's not much but a move in the right direction. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 This weather is making me seriously depressed. I would rather it snow, but at the least I wish we could get cold. Ian, you should see if the think tank will move to Atlanta. Seems more your type of weather. I grew up in the desert of CA then TX. I just like warmth more than cold. I think I'm in the majority there. I like winter less here than CT because at least we almost always had decent snow there. It's pretty cold here in winter and it doesn't snow much usually and to me the only usefulness in cold is to produce snow. I don't have a problem with people who like cold and dry it just doesn't seem totally rational. Warm in winter isn't really warm anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I looked at our 5 torchiest Ninas since 1950 1949-50, 1973-74, 1974-75, 1998-99, 2007-08 Even based on 1981-2010 norms, the sample averaged 3.4 degrees above normal for DJF (FWIW, this post is about temps but the snow average was 9.9") The average number of high temps of 39 or lower for the entire OCT-APR period for the sample was 16.6 1998-99 had the highest number at 25 days and 1975-75 and 2007-08 tied for the least at 13 days So far this winter we have had 0 days So I am taking solace and comfort in knowing that we will probably have double digit number of days with highs in the 20s or 30s.....And since warministas have become the new rage including CWG's target audience, I plan on gloating on every single one of these days that we have...Considering highs in the mid 40s have prompted warministas to make comments like, "Matt, why is so cold?", "ughh, I can't believe winter is here so soon", "Matt, this weather sucks, I can't believe how cold it is", even a day with a high of 37-39 will have maximum impact in ruining their day, and I anxiously await our 1st one. Here's to you, Matt. This winter may just torch the whole time. That's the way that I remember some of the winters of the early 90's, but, in my know nothing opinion, I think this thing snaps just like 89-90 did. I lose nothing if I'm wrong, hope I'm right, and hope it happens at least by Jan 15. March is not a good winter month, regardless of the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 I don't know whats going on at CWG, but aside from the legitimate troll value, at the current date this post is pointless. Seems to me thorough progression since early November clearly indicates this is going to be a back loaded winter, somewhat like a blend between 1978/79 and 2006/07. Then you didn't read the post or it went over your head because it make perfect sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Thats the NAO, isn't as meaningful to the total hemispheric state, directly, like the AO is as far as cold goes, because you can have a "fake" -NAO with a westward oriented polar vortex and we'll still torch in a Nina. I think the +AO should spike again into early/mid January before the tides begin to turn as there is no downwelling mechanism below 5HPA now....can't circumvent physics. IMFO it'll likely be a signle pattern changing storm later in January that'll set the ball rolling for us in February featuring repetative coastals. The AO forecasts are for it to hit the skids as well. Having said that, I'm not a believer at all in forecasts of anything beyond about 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I'd give January a 80% chance of having above normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 The AO also showing signs of tanking after a late December peak, it's certainly on it's way toward neutral, and there is a good bit of spread (uncertainty) for the first week of January. It's not much but a move in the right direction. http://www.cpc.ncep...._index/ao.shtml I struggled with statistics class, they passed me to keep me out of future repeat sessions but the correlation index of 0.2844 is a pooch-a-whatamus. The AO may mount a slight dip but there is no current reason to think it will sustain. When Ian calls for a snowy January, perhaps he implies the final few days of the month, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I struggled with statistics class, they passed me to keep me out of future repeat sessions but the correlation index of 0.2844 is a pooch-a-whatamus. The AO may mount a slight dip but there is no current reason to think it will sustain. When Ian calls for a snowy January, perhaps he implies the final few days of the month, eh? Probably weighted to the second half of the month but we can get a storm in a bad pattern better in January than Dec. Plus we're due. Additionally, I'll give an 80% chance of at least 1 70 degree day in Feb, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I grew up in the desert of CA then TX. I just like warmth more than cold. I think I'm in the majority there. I like winter less here than CT because at least we almost always had decent snow there. It's pretty cold here in winter and it doesn't snow much usually and to me the only usefulness in cold is to produce snow. I don't have a problem with people who like cold and dry it just doesn't seem totally rational. Warm in winter isn't really warm anyway. Where in Texas did you live? I'm originally from down that way... Of course, I love cold. The colder the better. 10* for a high on a semi-regular basis would be okay (i.e. no, I don't want to live in Saskatchewan). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Where in Texas did you live? I'm originally from down that way... Of course, I love cold. The colder the better. 10* for a high on a semi-regular basis would be okay (i.e. no, I don't want to live in Saskatchewan). east of dallas -- rockwall/collin cty line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Some idiot at cwg named david is giving Tomorrow a 9 out of 10 because it's going to hit 60 Im starting to really hate that blog. I hope the Post starts cutting staff their too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 east of dallas -- rockwall/collin cty line Sure, know the area well. Good ole I-30... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I'd give January a 80% chance of having above normal snowfall. Good! I need to make a new map or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I'm loving the 70s down here in SC right now. I hope I bring them back so folks can at least get some enjoyment out of the dead months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Then you didn't read the post or it went over your head because it make perfect sense. Either that 39 or below days will wind up at double didgit values, and the complaining is getting old, or that CWG commenters accusing the post of warmista bias are high off their a**? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I think DC will see a pretty good period of cold...but its probably going to be later than I thought (yes, I know the '01-'02 analogs with the cold never arriving)...the stratosphere will probably respond more in early Jan than it did in late Dec...but there is still some uncertainty...we could def still see an '01-'02 where it never really changes, but I'm thinking that we see enough of a disturbance that a good 2-4 week period will occur. Maybe not totally unlike that period starting in Jan 2000 (not talking about that 1/25 storm either...just the pattern). I know HM is starting to get more bullish on a MMW and he is looking at this stuff every day...we'll have to wait and see. But I would still think a good pattern will set up. The first week of Jan looks brutal though for winter lovers...hopefully its fixed by the 20th...I would say the 10th, but these things often tend to take a little longer than we want them to ala 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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