mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 HPC below. What are the implications of slower and more amplitude on our evolving pattern. I like the sounds of that because it means slowing Pacific firehouse (maybe split flow?). It makes me think of Tip words like "meridional expression", longitudinal appeal, teleconnector convergence and other pornographic terms. AS USUAL...THE 00 UTC GFS/GEFS MEAN LATER OUTPACE THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH FLOW PROGRESSION...WITH THE 00 UTC ECMWF ESPECIALLY THE MOST DIGGY/SLOWEST OF ALL INTO THE NEW YEAR. HPC MEDIUM RANGE PROGS STILL OFFER TRANSITION INTO AN INCREASINGLY MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER PATTERN. HOWEVER...PREFER TO DOWNPLAY DEEP NEW YEAR 00 UTC ECMWF DEVELOPMENT CONSIDERING MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES...PROGRESSIVE EARLY WEEK FLOW NATURE...AND AMPLE EMBEDDED SYSTEM UNCERTAINTIES. ACCORDINGLY...PRIMARILY USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BY DAYS 6/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 The last winter without below-zero temperatures in Keene was 2001-2. Let's see what happens in January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boolean Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 The way I look at it is that we've probably gone through the worst December in our lifetimes. incorrect. that would be dec. 2006. warmer. (41.0 in bos) and just as snowless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Weeklies actually look decent week 2 and 3. Week 4 still doesn't look all that great, but they are a little cooler than what came out on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Weeklies actually look decent week 2 and 3. Week 4 still doesn't look all that great, but they are a little cooler than what came out on Thursday. I'm surprised at how cold it has the east for week 2 (Jan 3-9)...monster ridge in the Rockies/West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I'm surprised at how cold it has the east for week 2 (Jan 3-9)...monster ridge in the Rockies/West. I know it. It still has a pretty potent AO, but it gets the ridging going in the PNA region for a brief time. I'm a little skeptical of that aggressiveness of that, but maybe it has the right idea of it. Looking at the MJO stuff..it doesn't seem to argue for that, but there are other things that can drive the PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I know it. It still has a pretty potent AO, but it gets the ridging going in the PNA region for a brief time. I'm a little skeptical of that aggressiveness of that, but maybe it has the right idea of it. Looking at the MJO stuff..it doesn't seem to argue for that, but there are other things that can drive the PNA. The MJO is supposed to rapidly weaken over the next week, so I'm not sure how much effect it is having either way by the time we get to the week 2 pattern...but if it stays stronger, it would actually support some ridging there as it goes into phase 7/8...but it looks like it may go into the COD before that. I'd definitely keep hedging a bit warmer as long as the AO is raging positive. But maybe we can sneak an event or two in with the ridge there. It's kind of far east to be optimal but maybe a late bloomer or something could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Looks like HM is going to nail the colder ,stormier Jan idea he had. Wonder if models are now sensing the SSW soon to be MSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Isotherm has a couple of nice posts/links in regards to strato warming and MJO in the NYC sub-forum. Thinking the deck is beginning to shuffle here and talk of January cancel is premature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Looks like HM is going to nail the colder ,stormier Jan idea he had. Wonder if models are now sensing the SSW soon to be MSW Well climo says January is snowier anyways. The thinking all along is that maybe this torch pattern relaxes later in January, but the question is when. We could easily have a 1 week reprieve then go into the crapper again. The AO/NAO should remain positive for another few weeks at least. I still don't see a clear pattern change for another 2-3 weeks..but it doesn't mean we get shut out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Isotherm has a couple of nice posts/links in regards to strato warming and MJO in the NYC sub-forum. Thinking the deck is beginning to shuffle here and talk of January cancel is premature I don't buy the warming quite yet. It still doesn't want to seem to downwell yet. Maybe later in the month it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Even the MJO progs try to go towards phase 7-8 and then come right back into the COD towards phase 4 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I'm surprised at how cold it has the east for week 2 (Jan 3-9)...monster ridge in the Rockies/West. Tip has hinted at an Archambault even Jan 1-5...maybe that is the phase change of the PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I know it. It still has a pretty potent AO, but it gets the ridging going in the PNA region for a brief time. I'm a little skeptical of that aggressiveness of that, but maybe it has the right idea of it. Looking at the MJO stuff..it doesn't seem to argue for that, but there are other things that can drive the PNA. HPC also talking about increasing amplitude. Would not a PNA spike help in the destruction of the AO? Get some storms transported north and destroy. It is like trying to chop down a tree with a butter knife this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 The MJO is supposed to rapidly weaken over the next week, so I'm not sure how much effect it is having either way by the time we get to the week 2 pattern...but if it stays stronger, it would actually support some ridging there as it goes into phase 7/8...but it looks like it may go into the COD before that. I'd definitely keep hedging a bit warmer as long as the AO is raging positive. But maybe we can sneak an event or two in with the ridge there. It's kind of far east to be optimal but maybe a late bloomer or something could happen. So was Boxing DAy 2010 Ok, I know, an insane -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 The MJO is supposed to rapidly weaken over the next week, so I'm not sure how much effect it is having either way by the time we get to the week 2 pattern...but if it stays stronger, it would actually support some ridging there as it goes into phase 7/8...but it looks like it may go into the COD before that. I'd definitely keep hedging a bit warmer as long as the AO is raging positive. But maybe we can sneak an event or two in with the ridge there. It's kind of far east to be optimal but maybe a late bloomer or something could happen. Based on which source ? NCEP's weekly document and associated model output says it doesn't decay until 7 days out after having spent the time in moderate Phase 5 and 6. http://www.cpc.ncep....O/mjoupdate.pdf As far as the AO... Much of what I caught on the forum from those into this thing were banking on SSW to trigger an AO declination. Right now there isn't much evidence for one - of course they can be stochastic, sure. In general, there is a weakening PV out in time, but that can take place in the absence of any meaningful thermal departures. The other thing... the PV rarely stays biased one way or the other longer than 45 day almost never more than 60 days. That linear statistic in its self says the PV should in trouble. One thing folks need also keep in mind is that if the AO is +1, that doesn't necessarily mean warm if it were +4 10 days earlier and then differentiated downward by 3 - that is a strong argument for cooling mass fields at middle latitude. You have to pay attention to the sign of the differential. I've been into the AO for years and have been trumpeting that importance since 2005 and the days of Eastern. Trust me ... the differential is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 HPC also talking about increasing amplitude. Would not a PNA spike help in the destruction of the AO? Get some storms transported north and destroy. It is like trying to chop down a tree with a butter knife this year. LOL Yeah it could help with the AO. It could help force ridging in the North Atlantic and also help dislodge the PV too. Despite what is modeled, it appears that it is still a well anchored feature. It will take a lot of work to help weaken it and dislodge it. Hopefully that happens within the next 4 weeks or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Based on which source ? NCEP's weekly document and associated model output says it doesn't decay until 7 days out after having spent the time in moderate Phase 5 and 6. http://www.cpc.ncep....O/mjoupdate.pdf As far as the AO... Much of what I caught on the forum from those into this thing were banking on SSW to trigger an AO declination. Right now there isn't much evidence for one - of course they can be stochastic, sure. In general, there is a weakening PV out in time, but that can take place in the absence of any meaningful thermal departures. The other thing... the PV rarely stays biased one way or the other longer than 45 day almost never more than 60 days. That linear statistic in its self says the PV should in trouble. One thing folks need also keep in mind is that if the AO is +1, that doesn't necessarily mean warm if it were +4 10 days earlier and then differentiated downward by 3 - that is a strong argument for cooling mass fields at middle latitude. You have to pay attention to the sign of the differential. I've been into the AO for years and have been trumpeting that importance since 2005 and the days of Eastern. Trust me ... the differential is huge. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Many models bring it into the COD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Based on which source ? NCEP's weekly document and associated model output says it doesn't decay until 7 days out after having spent the time in moderate Phase 5 and 6. http://www.cpc.ncep....O/mjoupdate.pdf As far as the AO... Much of what I caught on the forum from those into this thing were banking on SSW to trigger an AO declination. Right now there isn't much evidence for one - of course they can be stochastic, sure. In general, there is a weakening PV out in time, but that can take place in the absence of any meaningful thermal departures. The other thing... the PV rarely stays biased one way or the other longer than 45 day almost never more than 60 days. That linear statistic in its self says the PV should in trouble. One thing folks need also keep in mind is that if the AO is +1, that doesn't necessarily mean warm if it were +4 10 days earlier and then differentiated downward by 3 - that is a strong argument for cooling mass fields at middle latitude. You have to pay attention to the sign of the differential. I've been into the AO for years and have been trumpeting that importance since 2005 and the days of Eastern. Trust me ... the differential is huge. Latest ECMWF ensemble forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 HPC below. What are the implications of slower and more amplitude on our evolving pattern. I like the sounds of that because it means slowing Pacific firehouse (maybe split flow?). It makes me think of Tip words like "meridional expression", longitudinal appeal, teleconnector convergence and other pornographic terms. AS USUAL...THE 00 UTC GFS/GEFS MEAN LATER OUTPACE THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH FLOW PROGRESSION...WITH THE 00 UTC ECMWF ESPECIALLY THE MOST DIGGY/SLOWEST OF ALL INTO THE NEW YEAR. HPC MEDIUM RANGE PROGS STILL OFFER TRANSITION INTO AN INCREASINGLY MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER PATTERN. HOWEVER...PREFER TO DOWNPLAY DEEP NEW YEAR 00 UTC ECMWF DEVELOPMENT CONSIDERING MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES...PROGRESSIVE EARLY WEEK FLOW NATURE...AND AMPLE EMBEDDED SYSTEM UNCERTAINTIES. ACCORDINGLY...PRIMARILY USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BY DAYS 6/7 A diggy EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Looks like HM is going to nail the colder ,stormier Jan idea he had. Wonder if models are now sensing the SSW soon to be MSW Consider it booked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 A diggy EC. It has a really amped up ridge which also contributes to the lakes cutter after New Years. GFS/GEFS much flatter so that is why they don't have it. Euro also goes nuts with the western ridge even more after that which gives us a lot of cold after that cutter it has. Who knows how much of that whole sequence will verify but the weeklies seemed to support that cold intrusion. As I mentioned further up, I'd probably favor it being more tempered given the strong +AO, but it doesn't mean it won't cool off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 It has a really amped up ridge which also contributes to the lakes cutter after New Years. GFS/GEFS much flatter so that is why they don't have it. Euro also goes nuts with the western ridge even more after that which gives us a lot of cold after that cutter it has. Who knows how much of that whole sequence will verify but the weeklies seemed to support that cold intrusion. As I mentioned further up, I'd probably favor it being more tempered given the strong +AO, but it doesn't mean it won't cool off. A tempered change is better than no change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 A tempered change is better than no change. True, but lets hope it doesn't revert back either. I still don't see a pattern change anytime soon, but lets face it...anything wintry will seem like a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Latest ECMWF ensemble forecast .... I see ..yeah, the interpretation is that to be a little faster - still looks like a solid week of time spent above incoherence, though. Eh, not overwhelming amplitude by any stretch, just the same. Also, the WPO is falling during that time (by way of ESRL); I have noticed for MJO's on the right side of the diagram, when the WPO slips those phase correlations appear less presented. My personal belief is that -WPO loads Asia air into the Pac basin and that increased gradient compresses the flow and buries the MJO's influence to some degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 A diggy EC. kinda hawt, yeah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 A tempered change is better than no change. Any change is good change. Enjoy the tempered change because it's the only change you've got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 John, I get what you are saying......but to be fair, we have been hearing about the cryosphere since October and it hasn't done much good, aside from that 1\200 yr October fluke....and that didn't do the cp much good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 John, I get what you are saying......but to be fair, we have been hearing about the cryosphere since October and it hasn't done much good, aside from that 1\200 yr October fluke....and that didn't do the cp much good. I don't think you quite got it actually. The Cryosphere has helped - As that annotation may just suggest, since there is an abundance of cold, such that the AO can be more effective at comparatively lesser negative values. That's the point I am trying to convey here. As the annotation also shows, the only cool anomalies we've had in October, November, and December thus far have coincided with intervals of substantially weakened PV. I also furthered it by say the prog looks like it is headed for another nadir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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