CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Anyway to stay on topic...I agree with Scott that the D11-15 EC ensembles last night looked better than they have in a while...it actually shows a bit of ridging trying to get going near AK...it has the lower heights back toward Aleutians. But this is the type of thing oyu'd like to see more defined as we get closer and not get worse. Yeah it's one of those things where you're like "talk to me when you are firmly in the 6-10 day timeframe." I wouldn't be shocked of 12z backed off a bit...but it would be nice to actually raise heights in the AK to wrn NAMR domain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 12z Euro has a monster torch to begin January as H2O pointed out, unreal. 8C 850s approaching NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Is anyone else loving the long range euro days 7-10?The torch is gone and it looks wintry after a brief mild day or 2 after the first of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Is anyone else loving the long range euro days 7-10?The torch is gone and it looks wintry after a brief mild day or 2 after the first of the year It's the euro op in the last 48 hrs of its run. It's no different then clown snowfall maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Is anyone else loving the long range euro days 7-10?The torch is gone and it looks wintry after a brief mild day or 2 after the first of the year Eh, OP run after D7...pretty useless. What I do not like about it if we are analyzing it is that it has an AK vortex pretty robust there. It does have a big +PNA ridge, but I'd like to see signs of the AK vortex weakening...hopefully the ensembles will keep trending toward that after Jan 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 It's the euro op in the last 48 hrs of its run. It's no different then clown snowfall maps. Who said it was right. I asked if anyone else liked the loooks of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Let him go, Scott......he's trying to recover after his meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Is anyone else loving the long range euro days 7-10?The torch is gone and it looks wintry after a brief mild day or 2 after the first of the year dosent matter...you said winter is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Is anyone else loving the long range euro days 7-10?The torch is gone and it looks wintry after a brief mild day or 2 after the first of the year I think d10 took a step backwards actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 It's the euro op in the last 48 hrs of its run. It's no different then clown snowfall maps. It's still touting a +EPO as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Who said it was right. I asked if anyone else liked the loooks of it Yes it looks pretty, but the thought is surpassed by the notion of model op performance after d8. I've learned to have absolutely no emotions in those op runs passed d7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Yes it looks pretty, but the thought is surpassed by the notion of model op performance after d8. I've learned to have absolutely no emotions in those op runs passed d7. Well I'm not cranking one off to it, but it's the best looking Euro op since Helloween Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Well I'm not cranking one off to it, but it's the best looking Euro op since Helloween Just hope the 11-15 day euro ensembles have a clue. I care more about what those show at this point. I wouldn't be shocked if they took a step back on this run, but they are trying to get the pattern to relax and look a little more wintry near d10 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Just hope the 11-15 day euro ensembles have a clue. I care more about what those show at this point. I wouldn't be shocked if they took a step back on this run, but they are trying to get the pattern to relax and look a little more wintry near d10 now. Usually when they are cold and GEfs are warm they are right and vice versa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 The biggest problem with getting excited in the long range is that we have yet to see good evidence of a fundamental shift in the AO progression...we've seen some strat warming, but the Euro is forecasting to relax it now beyond D10 and if that happens, we may only see a very mild effect if any at all in the PV. I'm sure we'll have a few snow chances in there when the PNA is positive and as climo keeps cooling into January, but overall the pattern remains unfavorable for any sustained cold, and thus limiting the storm chances. Also keeping the PJ stuck poleward makes active storminess less likely for us. We'll hope we can cash in when its going underneath us, but those chances may be few and far between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 My initial forecast was pretty good. I should have never flipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 The biggest problem with getting excited in the long range is that we have yet to see good evidence of a fundamental shift in the AO progression...we've seen some strat warming, but the Euro is forecasting to relax it now beyond D10 and if that happens, we may only see a very mild effect if any at all in the PV. I'm sure we'll have a few snow chances in there when the PNA is positive and as climo keeps cooling into January, but overall the pattern remains unfavorable for any sustained cold, and thus limiting the storm chances. Also keeping the PJ stuck poleward makes active storminess less likely for us. We'll hope we can cash in when its going underneath us, but those chances may be few and far between. I'm almost getting to the point where I'm passed the point of "jumping off the tobin" or "toaster dropping" This winter has been so bad that a 3-6" snowfall will feel like 12-18" snowfall and a 12-18" snowfall will feel like the Blizzard of 1888. I can't imagine what this board will be if a HECS is modeled like 4 days out.. Absolute weenierology will take place. We are now gaining sunlight ever so slightly and things do not look good in the next 10 days. That leaves us about a month for any chances of snow IMO. If I didn't get 17" in October I'd have 4" total for the winter. The way I look at it is that we've probably gone through the worst December in our lifetimes. What sucks is that this has actually been a "wet" pattern too. What a waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 My initial forecast was pretty good. I should have never flipped. Nobody cares about your initial forecast if you flipped. Fiokin squirrels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 John, implicit to the concept of a pattern change, at least within the context of this forum, is that must have morphed into a desired one that is favorable for snow. No one cares that has changed from an epically warm suck to just a mild suck. Exactly .... this isn't a weather forum. It's a snow forum. It's just an unfortunate inextricable relationship that you cannot have one without the other I suppose... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Amazing difference between the Euro and its ensembles vs the GFS/GEFS for the Jan 2 period...Euro basically is another hideous cutter and GFS keeps everything underneath us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Amazing difference between the Euro and its ensembles vs the GFS/GEFS for the Jan 2 period...Euro basically is another hideous cutter and GFS keeps everything underneath us. How do the 11-15 day ensembles look? Any different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Amazing difference between the Euro and its ensembles vs the GFS/GEFS for the Jan 2 period...Euro basically is another hideous cutter and GFS keeps everything underneath us. Maybe the compromised Miller B results... Euro was emphatically east and under yesterday. Obviously there are going to be continuity issues this far out, duh.. This is the first latter middle range I've seen this year with a preceding +PNA signaled - whether that lends to determinism or not, I'll take those odds over the previous events any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 The 12z ensembles looked like they backed off a bit from 00z which isn't a surprise, but still try to raise heights in the PNA area. I'll believe it if it's still modeled on NYE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 It's the euro op in the last 48 hrs of its run. It's no different then clown snowfall maps. Eric can you make a slap down pic? I think we are all praying at this point and knowing that for large scale pattern changes the models will waffle, show it early, lose it, etc. But isn't a phase cutter a sign of a pattern change? or at least something that can help that process? Go ahead...slap me down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Amazing difference between the Euro and its ensembles vs the GFS/GEFS for the Jan 2 period...Euro basically is another hideous cutter and GFS keeps everything underneath us. sounds like the day before yesterday re Tuesday...we know where that is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Eric can you make a slap down pic? I think we are all praying at this point and knowing that for large scale pattern changes the models will waffle, show it early, lose it, etc. But isn't a phase cutter a sign of a pattern change? or at least something that can help that process? Go ahead...slap me down. Well sometimes a cutter can switch the pattern around by shoving warmth and moisture into the North Atlantic, but in this case, I don't think that will dislodge the vortex. The vortex has become a virtual entity that cannot be beaten down. It will take multiple beating for it to finally dislodge...and I don't see the storm on Tuesday as the reason for change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Well sometimes a cutter can switch the pattern around by shoving warmth and moisture into the North Atlantic, but in this case, I don't think that will dislodge the vortex. The vortex has become a virtual entity that cannot be beaten down. It will take multiple beating for it to finally dislodge...and I don't see the storm on Tuesday as the reason for change. Yes but is it perhaps an indicator of a pattern slowly changing? There haven't been any cutters for a while that I can remember. esp if we get another cutter around NYE. We may have to endure a couple of cutters as this pattern shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Yes but is it perhaps an indicator of a pattern slowly changing? There haven't been any cutters for a while that I can remember. esp if we get another cutter around NYE. We may have to endure a couple of cutters as this pattern shifts. Oh I see what you are saying. Hard to tell if that is the case..but it is true that we have not had a very strong Lakes Cutter this season as we really haven't had the polar jet phase with the southern stream at all. We are getting into the time of year where things are shifting south, so that may be a part of it. The nrn stream will try to push south through the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 It's basically a perfect storm over a stable sea of $hit....you can pretty much discount any single, promising, determinsitc run until further notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 It's basically a perfect storm over a stable sea of $hit....you can pretty much discount any single, promising, determinsitc run until further notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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