January? Pattern Change Thread

[Typhoon Tip]

There are subtleties about the pattern that have changed whether folks want to admit that or not. Having registered a couple few days of below normal over the last 2 weeks is not merely because the normals for this time of year are declining; there are large scale circulation details that have allowed more successful CAA events.

I think people are confusing whether or not a big East Coast, KU type dreaminess is present in the runs, replete with western N/A ridge and drilled out EPO...etc, for whether the pattern is changed or not. Unfortunately, the atmosphere doesn't work in such extremes that often. It's a bit of philosophical question, but if by pattern change we are seeking that? Sure - there has been no pattern change. But in the reality of the spectrum of events that make up the atmosphere, the pattern is definitely different than it was 3 weeks ago. Whether this statement falls on deaf, unwanted ears ...that's another story. Whether we have snow on the ground to show for it - tough kittens. You just have to wait.

I disagree a little with the notion that the pattern remains bleak until much later in January. I sloped that "little", because there are reasons I could also agree.

Pro: Both the CPC and CDC have interesting positive run-ins with the PNA as we turn the page on Jan 1 through about the 10th. By the end of the first week of January, both CDC, ESRL and NCEP channels jolt their respective PNA index values to between +1 and +2 SD respectively. Nearly in concert, few recent runs of the operational ECM/GFS have ear-marked that week with an impressive cyclogenesis event over eastern N/A - very Archambault appealed. Granted the recent operational GFS has flattened that some, in having the wave progression still identifiable there is no reason the amplitude won't return. Lord knows we've seen model black out on systems only to have them roar back, in the past. I am noting that Euro ensembles were quite impressive with the PNAP look to their D8-10 mean over at PSU, also falling on the GEF derived +PNA interval. So you got cross-guidance type agreement there... Success in getting to that phase state in verification often is heralded in with an eastern N/A precipitation event as the science has shown. It would also be a more obvious and discernible change to the appearance of the flow, however brief - ironically, does cold prevail? Patterns can change without snow and cold being party to the equation, too

Con: A proverbial race so to speak? The MJO has a current phoenix (rebirth ) in phase 4 and is nearing moderate strength. Back on the 19th, NCEP's weekly MJO address outlined that during the previous days the index had dropped off to incoherence. Their outlook was for the MJO to thus-wise not meaningfully impact the circulation at large. However, the GEFs mean indicated this Phase 4 reemergence at that time - to which they didn't comment too much on... But current phase as of the 26th is right on top of what the mean predicated it would be back on the 19th. If history could be used as any guide, that accuracy suggest that we see a moderate strength Phase 5 by 7 days from now. This, unfortunately for those that want to bore out a huge eastern N/A stable L/W pattern, is statistically at odds with that configuration. This is where I am inclined to agree that a more meaningful pattern change is not warranted (necessarily), until it can be determined how that success of that Phase realization will exert on the flow. We have seen counter-statistically suggested results during MJO's in the past, so obviously the correlation is not 1::1 - duh, none of these ever are. I could almost imagine scenario where the current physical processing of the circulation overall simply has not yet detected the presence of the MJO; such that when it does, those tasty looking PNA values at CDC may get muted in time, and the positive angle from Pro: would suffer a defeat. My personal belief with the MJO is that when the surrounding pattern is in sync with it, it's correlation appear remarkable; when the surrounding medium is not, it's presence is less obviously influencing. In other words, it seem more of a positive reinforce, than an equal negative/positive influence.

I am almost thinking at this point that if a bigger system were to verity in that 10 days, people might actually be angry - haha. Maybe this is like a broad spectrum Stockholm Syndrome - crow dynamic, and we've just become so accustomed to winter's absentia that we actually believe it is wrong to think otherwise. But I don't think any objective Meteorologist would doom the first half of January. Perhaps cautiously optimistic - agreed. But there are things that make you go, Hmmm.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Jan actually featured more snow, than Feb....Feb was a snooze fest, outside of the blizzard.....cold and dry.

Well, that's like saying outside of WWII, the 1940s were pretty dull

But I get what you mean.

I would imagine that for where I was living, Feb 1978 totals were probably amongst the bigger monthly totals ever (down in Foxboro)... even though it was all from 1 storm

[CoastalWx]

There are subtleties about the pattern that have changed whether folks want to admit that or not. Having registered a couple few days of below normal over the last 2 weeks is not merely because the normals for this time of year are declining; there are large scale circulation details that have allowed more successful CAA events.

I think people are confusing whether or not a big East Coast, KU type dreaminess is present in the runs, replete with western N/A ridge and drilled out EPO...etc, for whether the pattern is changed or not. Unfortunately, the atmosphere doesn't work in such extremes that often. It's a bit of philosophical question, but if by pattern change we are seeking that? Sure - there has been no pattern change. But in the reality of the spectrum of events that make up the atmosphere, the pattern is definitely different than it was 3 weeks ago. Whether this statement falls on deaf, unwanted ears ...that's another story. Whether we have snow on the ground to show for it - tough kittens. You just have to wait.

I disagree a little with the notion that the pattern remains bleak until much later in January. I sloped that "little", because there are reasons I could also agree.

Pro: Both the CPC and CDC have interesting positive run-ins with the PNA as we turn the page on Jan 1 through about the 10th. By the end of the first week of January, both CDC, ESRL and NCEP channels jolt their respective PNA index values to between +1 and +2 SD respectively. Nearly in concert, few recent runs of the operational ECM/GFS have ear-marked that week with an impressive cyclogenesis event over eastern N/A - very Archambault appealed. Granted the recent operational GFS has flattened that some, in having the wave progression still identifiable there is no reason the amplitude won't return. Lord knows we've seen model black out on systems only to have them roar back, in the past. I am noting that Euro ensembles were quite impressive with the PNAP look to their D8-10 mean over at PSU, also falling on the GEF derived +PNA interval. So you got cross-guidance type agreement there... Success in getting to that phase state in verification often is heralded in with an eastern N/A precipitation event as the science has shown. It would also be a more obvious and discernible change to the appearance of the flow, however brief - ironically, does cold prevail? Patterns can change without snow and cold being party to the equation, too

Con: A proverbial race so to speak? The MJO has a current phoenix (rebirth ) in phase 4 and is nearing moderate strength. Back on the 19th, NCEP's weekly MJO address outlined that during the previous days the index had dropped off to incoherence. Their outlook was for the MJO to thus-wise not meaningfully impact the circulation at large. However, the GEFs mean indicated this Phase 4 reemergence at that time - to which they didn't comment too much on... But current phase as of the 26th is right on top of what the mean predicated it would be back on the 19th. If history could be used as any guide, that accuracy suggest that we see a moderate strength Phase 5 by 7 days from now. This, unfortunately for those that want to bore out a huge eastern N/A stable L/W pattern, is statistically at odds with that configuration. This is where I am inclined to agree that a more meaningful pattern change is not warranted (necessarily), until it can be determined how that success of that Phase realization will exert on the flow. We have seen counter-statistically suggested results during MJO's in the past, so obviously the correlation is not 1::1 - duh, none of these ever are. I could almost imagine scenario where the current physical processing of the circulation overall simply has not yet detected the presence of the MJO; such that when it does, those tasty looking PNA values at CDC may get muted in time, and the positive angle from Pro: would suffer a defeat. My personal belief with the MJO is that when the surrounding pattern is in sync with it, it's correlation appear remarkable; when the surrounding medium is not, it's presence is less obviously influencing. In other words, it seem more of a positive reinforce, than an equal negative/positive influence.

I am almost thinking at this point that if a bigger system were to verity in that 10 days, people might actually be angry - haha. Maybe this is like a broad spectrum Stockholm Syndrome - crow dynamic, and we've just become so accustomed to winter's absentia that we actually believe it is wrong to think otherwise. But I don't think any objective Meteorologist would doom the first half of January. Perhaps cautiously optimistic - agreed. But there are things that make you go, Hmmm.

The 11-15 day on the EC ensembles looked fairly decent, but I'm still not completely buying it. It's is the better guidance at that time range, so I don't think we can completely dismiss it..but the bias has been to be too aggressive with the ridging out there. Eventually, it does have to weaken..so I'll keep an eye on it for now. We have nothing to lose at this point and it is coming near the d10 period which is better than having it perpetually in the day 15 timeframe.

[CoastalWx]

Well, that's like saying outside of WWII, the 1940s were pretty dull

But I get what you mean.

I would imagine that for where I was living, Feb 1978 totals were probably amongst the bigger monthly totals ever (down in Foxboro)... even though it was all from 1 storm

Ray would not want that storm 50 miles north.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Blizzard of 78??

Maybe more like 30 miles, but I would want it a little N...yes.

[weathafella]

There are subtleties about the pattern that have changed whether folks want to admit that or not. Having registered a couple few days of below normal over the last 2 weeks is not merely because the normals for this time of year are declining; there are large scale circulation details that have allowed more successful CAA events.

I think people are confusing whether or not a big East Coast, KU type dreaminess is present in the runs, replete with western N/A ridge and drilled out EPO...etc, for whether the pattern is changed or not. Unfortunately, the atmosphere doesn't work in such extremes that often. It's a bit of philosophical question, but if by pattern change we are seeking that? Sure - there has been no pattern change. But in the reality of the spectrum of events that make up the atmosphere, the pattern is definitely different than it was 3 weeks ago. Whether this statement falls on deaf, unwanted ears ...that's another story. Whether we have snow on the ground to show for it - tough kittens. You just have to wait.

I disagree a little with the notion that the pattern remains bleak until much later in January. I sloped that "little", because there are reasons I could also agree.

Pro: Both the CPC and CDC have interesting positive run-ins with the PNA as we turn the page on Jan 1 through about the 10th. By the end of the first week of January, both CDC, ESRL and NCEP channels jolt their respective PNA index values to between +1 and +2 SD respectively. Nearly in concert, few recent runs of the operational ECM/GFS have ear-marked that week with an impressive cyclogenesis event over eastern N/A - very Archambault appealed. Granted the recent operational GFS has flattened that some, in having the wave progression still identifiable there is no reason the amplitude won't return. Lord knows we've seen model black out on systems only to have them roar back, in the past. I am noting that Euro ensembles were quite impressive with the PNAP look to their D8-10 mean over at PSU, also falling on the GEF derived +PNA interval. So you got cross-guidance type agreement there... Success in getting to that phase state in verification often is heralded in with an eastern N/A precipitation event as the science has shown. It would also be a more obvious and discernible change to the appearance of the flow, however brief - ironically, does cold prevail? Patterns can change without snow and cold being party to the equation, too

Con: A proverbial race so to speak? The MJO has a current phoenix (rebirth ) in phase 4 and is nearing moderate strength. Back on the 19th, NCEP's weekly MJO address outlined that during the previous days the index had dropped off to incoherence. Their outlook was for the MJO to thus-wise not meaningfully impact the circulation at large. However, the GEFs mean indicated this Phase 4 reemergence at that time - to which they didn't comment too much on... But current phase as of the 26th is right on top of what the mean predicated it would be back on the 19th. If history could be used as any guide, that accuracy suggest that we see a moderate strength Phase 5 by 7 days from now. This, unfortunately for those that want to bore out a huge eastern N/A stable L/W pattern, is statistically at odds with that configuration. This is where I am inclined to agree that a more meaningful pattern change is not warranted (necessarily), until it can be determined how that success of that Phase realization will exert on the flow. We have seen counter-statistically suggested results during MJO's in the past, so obviously the correlation is not 1::1 - duh, none of these ever are. I could almost imagine scenario where the current physical processing of the circulation overall simply has not yet detected the presence of the MJO; such that when it does, those tasty looking PNA values at CDC may get muted in time, and the positive angle from Pro: would suffer a defeat. My personal belief with the MJO is that when the surrounding pattern is in sync with it, it's correlation appear remarkable; when the surrounding medium is not, it's presence is less obviously influencing. In other words, it seem more of a positive reinforce, than an equal negative/positive influence.

I am almost thinking at this point that if a bigger system were to verity in that 10 days, people might actually be angry - haha. Maybe this is like a broad spectrum Stockholm Syndrome - crow dynamic, and we've just become so accustomed to winter's absentia that we actually believe it is wrong to think otherwise. But I don't think any objective Meteorologist would doom the first half of January. Perhaps cautiously optimistic - agreed. But there are things that make you go, Hmmm.

The pattern blows.....it simply does. Sure we have had 3-4 below normal days out of the past 20....

[40/70 Benchmark]

The best banding was south of me.

[CoastalWx]

Maybe more like 30 miles, but I would want it a little N...yes.

I guess it depends on where in the evolution of the storm, because it got the dryslot pretty far north. How much did you get? If you went 30-50 miles north of chatham..you would be pissed.

[weathafella]

The best banding was south of me.

Not by 30 miles....more like 10.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Not by 30 miles....more like 10.

You're wrong.....sw of Boston and n RI had it.

[CoastalWx]

You're wrong.....sw of Boston and n RI had it.

That may have been a OES or CF type feature too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That may have been a OES or CF type feature too.

I buy the CF rationale, but not the OES, at least for N RI.

[40/70 Benchmark]

So maybe I would have rathered the high be a little weaker....whatever, optimally that feature would have been displaced about 30 miles to the n.

[CoastalWx]

I buy the CF rationale, but not the OES, at least for N RI.

Well sometimes they work hand in hand. Maybe ocean enhanced is the word..but without seeing radar..tough to tell. I could almost envision something like what happened in the boxing day storm. That band that setup from BOS on southwest. It's a product of strong low level convergence and not just CF..like in the 950-850 layer.

[HoarfrostHubb]

You're wrong.....sw of Boston and n RI had it.

You are correct.

A 30 mile bump north would have given you 36"+

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well sometimes they work hand in hand. Maybe ocean enhanced is the word..but without seeing radar..tough to tell. I could almost envision something like what happened in the boxing day storm. That band that setup from BOS on southwest. It's a product of strong low level convergence and not just CF..like in the 950-850 layer.

Exactly my thoughts....those primative radars may not be very revealing, anyway.

Regardless, I would have like that phenomena to have been displaced to the n.....maybe the track in general was not the issue.

[CoastalWx]

Exactly my thoughts....those primative radars may not be very revealing, anyway.

Regardless, I would have like that phenomena to have been displaced to the n.....maybe the track in general was not the issue.

Yeah I hear you. One storm that I wish I was alive for, but something I hope to see in my life time. At least Phil had his already.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah I hear you. One storm that I wish I was alive for, but something I hope to see in my life time. At least Phil had his already.

We'll see that in our lifetimes, though not the impact on society.

What Phil saw was prob comparable to that.

My sister had a summer place in Falmouth back then, too....prob should have gone.

[dendrite]

The Euro has 60s into parts of SD New Year's Eve.

[CoastalWx]

We'll see that in our lifetimes, though not the impact on society.

What Phil saw was prob comparable to that.

He got an abbreviated version but the storm was very similar. The snow rates were probably better for Phil since many areas got 30-38" in 24-30 hrs.

[H2Otown_WX]

The Euro has 60s into parts of SD New Year's Eve.

Fixed. What a torch. +12C 850s and the next frame has +10 in Cleveland

[CoastalWx]

Put it this way, when you are jealous of an area after already receiving 27" of snow or so...you know they had one hell of a storm. That's what the mid and upper Cape had.

[40/70 Benchmark]

John, implicit to the concept of a pattern change, at least within the context of this forum, is that must have morphed into a desired one that is favorable for snow.

No one cares that has changed from an epically warm suck to just a mild suck.

[ORH_wxman]

1978 stalled near the benchmark, so Ray would probably like it a tad north...benchmark track is ideal for BOS-PVD corridor.

[CoastalWx]

1978 stalled near the benchmark, so Ray would probably like it a tad north...benchmark track is ideal for BOS-PVD corridor.

It looped around pretty close to Chatham which was probably the best thing for those areas that got jackpotted. Almost an ideal track for them.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1978 stalled near the benchmark, so Ray would probably like it a tad north...benchmark track is ideal for BOS-PVD corridor.

Yea, Scott and I both had valid points....I would have liked it a bit n, but there were other mechanisms at play that resulted in greater depths to my s and ssw.

[ORH_wxman]

Yea, Scott and I both had valid points....I would have liked it a bit n, but there were other mechanisms at play that resulted in greater depths to my s and ssw.

Further north would have gotten better banding up there...obviously everyone still did great in general for SNE.

April '97 was similar...it had the best banding over I-95 BOS-PVD...the only reason they didn't jackpot and ORH did was because it was April and they had to waste half of the qpf on rain.

[CoastalWx]

Yea, Scott and I both had valid points....I would have liked it a bit n, but there were other mechanisms at play that resulted in greater depths to my s and ssw.

It actually sent a DS northwest of the low..it curled into the outer Cape which also may have enhanced the snow just to the nw. Man would I have give to see a 88D loop from that storm..lol. But yeah..you were maybe just a bit too far north. It was sort of the same for me in Jan '05.

[ORH_wxman]

Anyway to stay on topic...I agree with Scott that the D11-15 EC ensembles last night looked better than they have in a while...it actually shows a bit of ridging trying to get going near AK...it has the lower heights back toward Aleutians. But this is the type of thing oyu'd like to see more defined as we get closer and not get worse.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think some of the confusion between Scott and I had to to with persective with regard to it's precise track evoloution, since it looped up to neat Chatham...which is an usual track, to say the least.

I would def. like to see a system track just inside of the BM, but I would not want it n of Chatham....usually the two tracks are mutally exclusive, but since this one looped, it pulled it off.