Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 3, 2012 Author Share Posted January 3, 2012 I started a new discussion for the potential weekend system. http://www.americanw...orm-discussion/ Thanks appears to be a legitimate feature, rain vs snow who knows but time for a new thread on it with all models seeing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Still, this BTV ob at 2pm would hurt your nuckles on the steering wheel ... 2 PM (19) Jan 03 12.0 (-11.1) -0.9 (-18.3) 30 (1015) N 12 yeah it's a solid cold shot. not earth shattering for the time of year...but definitely a nice chunk of cP air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 yeah it's a solid cold shot. not earth shattering for the time of year...but definitely a nice chunk of cP air. just your average day for February 1934 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 yeah it's a solid cold shot. not earth shattering for the time of year...but definitely a nice chunk of cP air. Let's hope is the first of many. We need a huge region wide deep snow producing storm to refrigerate the LL. I will sacrifice Sun for a 12-18 in ski country WMASS if that helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 just your average day for February 1934 lol I read for about 3 hours the other night about that month, got to love the Internet. Digitization is the bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Let's hope is the first of many. We need a huge region wide deep snow producing storm to refrigerate the LL. I will sacrifice Sun for a 12-18 in ski country WMASS if that helps. You and your LL and BL cold and SST keeping the BL warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 3, 2012 Author Share Posted January 3, 2012 Pattern wise I figure Boston sees less than 25" for the year, if I had to pick a number maybe 17" from here until 3/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 there's about an inch of snow here...but the source region over Ontario and Quebec is really lacking in snow cover. even the lakes have failed this year so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 This is interesting. The euro ensembles don't deepen the trough coming into the nrn Plains next week like the euro op and GEFS do. That's the potential warm up we were speaking about. The end result my still be a warm up or some sort of a mix to rain deal, but they look different then any other guidance. Will be interesting to see how this works out. I could see a little give in each direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 You and your LL and BL cold and SST keeping the BL warm What in the Sam hell does this mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 What in the Sam hell does this mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 What in the Sam hell does this mean. That means ....that Kevin is wasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Euro ensembles still show a heck of a gradient pattern setting up over the nrn tier. The question again is how strong will the -PNA be out west...which imo..will be strong. Despite the cold look (well relatively speaking..they aren't that cold), they show lows moving right into the OV on the mass fields with perhaps some sort of secondary nearby or offshore. I know it's getting out there, but you can get a sense of the gradient pattern setting up. I know we've done ok in the past, but it's not totally clear imo, if we are going to cash in, or get a lot of mix events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Euro ensembles still show a heck of a gradient pattern setting up over the nrn tier. The question again is how strong will the -PNA be out west...which imo..will be strong. Despite the cold look (well relatively speaking..they aren't that cold), they show lows moving right into the OV on the mass fields with perhaps some sort of secondary nearby or offshore. I know it's getting out there, but you can get a sense of the gradient pattern setting up. I know we've done ok in the past, but it's not totally clear imo, if we are going to cash in, or get a lot of mix events. I actually would not be shocked if we have to wait until the end of the month for something widespread, so we can get the cold deeper into the east, but it wouldn't rule out a chance of some sort of wintry event in the 11-15 day. Again, it's all about the trough out west, because we don't have any blocking here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Mix events are fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I actually would not be shocked if we have to wait until the end of the month for something widespread, so we can get the cold deeper into the east, but it wouldn't rule out a chance of some sort of wintry event in the 11-15 day. Again, it's all about the trough out west, because we don't have any blocking here. Best chance for frozen north of the Pike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Mix events are fine Maybe to start out we have one. At least things are looking better for more wintry chances. Is it a cold and snowy pattern? Eh, not so sure about that right now...but the chances are a lot better than we've had lately around here. I'd like to see how we progress over the next week...like to see if we indeed head right into and not back off. The west concerns me a little right now, but we can take control of the AK ridge is strong. For gradient lovers (I.E. NNE) this may be your pattern. Hopefully ours too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Mix events are fine Mix to snow is fine. Mix to rain not so fine, unless it's just a bit of drizzle at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I actually would not be shocked if we have to wait until the end of the month for something widespread, so we can get the cold deeper into the east, but it wouldn't rule out a chance of some sort of wintry event in the 11-15 day. Again, it's all about the trough out west, because we don't have any blocking here. still looks pretty meh to me on the ecwmf ensembles at day 10. AK still looks pretty cold with only limited ridging over there. I'd like to see more ridging over AK. Does it get better after day 10 on the ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 still looks pretty meh to me on the ecwmf ensembles at day 10. AK still looks pretty cold with only limited ridging over there. I'd like to see more ridging over AK. Does it get better after day 10 on the ensembles? The ridge in the Aleutians you see at D10 pumps up more after D10. The vortex isn't going to die easily which is why we see it holding ona little better as we get closer to the timeframe of change...but it does appear we are going to finally get rid of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 3, 2012 Author Share Posted January 3, 2012 So meh for another week or two then maybe it gets better...to pull a Kevin ASOUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The ridge in the Aleutians you see at D10 pumps up more after D10. The vortex isn't going to die easily which is why we see it holding ona little better as we get closer to the timeframe of change...but it does appear we are going to finally get rid of it Hmm....as I've being thinking since mid December, the changes wil first come across the Pacific, there after the Atlantic and that looks to be thus far. With a Aleutian Ridge starting to build back finally across the Pacific this should hopefully weaken and destory the Ak Vortex thus allowing for a -EPO to form and sending WCanada into the deep freezer. That ridge across Northern Europe towards Russia looks very interesting but still no blocking to be seen just yet. It seems reasonable that we may see a gradient pattern as the NIna climo kicks in. I like 1965, 1950, 2007 and perhaps 1956 as decent analogues for the second half, you think so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Maybe to start out we have one. At least things are looking better for more wintry chances. Is it a cold and snowy pattern? Eh, not so sure about that right now...but the chances are a lot better than we've had lately around here. I'd like to see how we progress over the next week...like to see if we indeed head right into and not back off. The west concerns me a little right now, but we can take control of the AK ridge is strong. For gradient lovers (I.E. NNE) this may be your pattern. Hopefully ours too. pardon my lack of Wx parlance knowlege. could you give a brief description of this gradient pattern, and recent example of such a pattern. this is the mid-to-late month pattern that's setting up that produces for far northern New England I gather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 pardon my lack of Wx parlance knowlege. could you give a brief description of this gradient pattern, and recent example of such a pattern. this is the mid-to-late month pattern that's setting up that produces for far northern New England I gather. What I mean by gradient pattern is a pattern that features very cold air in western and central Canada and into the nrn tier of the US..especially the Plains. Usually this pattern is brought on by a -PNA and can feature arctic air seeping into the northeast. The -PNA causes some ridging across the se and hence warmer air across the Mid Atlantic on south. Hence, you have a strong temperature gradient from north to south. This was the pattern of 2007-2008 and December 2008 into Jan 2009...although we started getting a -NAO in January 09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Here is what the gradient pattern looks like with height anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Classic image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 That is gorgeous. I hope so so strongly hope that that verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Hmm that looks almost exactly like 2007-08, 2008-09, very legit winters for my area. They were only 3.5" apart haha. It would seem reasonable to say Jan 15th and beyond resembles what is shown above, based on current data. Its f-ing 50F in Calgary currently, way above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Hmm that looks almost exactly like 2007-08, 2008-09, very legit winters for my area. They were only 3.5" apart haha. It would seem reasonable to say Jan 15th and beyond resembles what is shown above, based on current data. Its f-ing 50F in Calgary currently, way above normal. They better enjoy that now, it's going to change in a huge way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 2nd half of January onward. Scott (messenger) 17 inches for BOS is not a bad call imho. 2 months means we'll have at least some fun. We'll know in about 3 weeks if it duds out or we rock. The players are on the field....let's see if we can get things to fall into place. We've often seen winters of this one's personality find a way to screw us over and over again so optimism is in check. Meanwhile, I'm about to walk home facing NW.....lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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