Snow Bow Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Posting a day10 euro op is horrible dude. C'mon. Its all just part of his act. I wish people would stop replying to his posts, ignore doesn't work well while people respond lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 You posted the op, think maybe he is buying the ENS GIve me a few good reasons why a pattern change is going to take place in two weeks........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 GIve me a few good reasons why a pattern change is going to take place in two weeks........ Negative EPO, declining AO possible to negative territory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 GIve me a few good reasons why a pattern change is going to take place in two weeks........ Plenty of reasons have been discussed as to why there may be a pattern change Joe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Negative EPO, declining AO possible to negative territory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 History has and will continue to be made in New England, you can wish all the snow and cold in the world, does not mean its going to happen. Last year it was pretty clear winter was going to be fun, hence "sw ct winter", this year its been OBVIOUS that winter would have some issues........hence "never ending summer" "spring has sprung" say whatever you want, I could care less, back in September I called for record warm Met Autumn, did pretty well there. In October called for 37 inches of snow at bdr with above normal winter temps, called for +1.2 at BDR, that was horrific, way too cold, but it was back in October when most were calling for an epic Jan (outside of the sne mets). Guessing on warmth and lack of snow is never popular, there has been zero reason to weenie out or wishcast or talk about snow and cold, zero since November 1st. Didnt ORH just tie for 1st place for least snowfall ever in December............and the other sites in the top 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 GIve me a few good reasons why a pattern change is going to take place in two weeks........ Well for starters, we aren't saying a repeat of Jan 2010, last winter is not walking through that door. However, I think there are reasons to be optimistic of more wintry chances around these parts. We have a potential -EPO ridge building into AK which will cause more cross polar flow into the nrn tier. As the PNA turns negative, the se ridge will build a bit, but I don't see a continuation of this ridiculous torch. What I do question is the magnitude of this change, because I'm a little unsure how it will play out, but I think the upper level pattern will change quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 It may not..but he's usually good at seeing pattern flips I agree Noyes is one of the best mets in New England. he is by far the most accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I agree Noyes is one of the best mets in New England. he is by far the most accurate How's your son snowNH doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 History has and will continue to be made in New England, you can wish all the snow and cold in the world, does not mean its going to happen. Last year it was pretty clear winter was going to be fun, hence "sw ct winter", this year its been OBVIOUS that winter would have some issues........hence "never ending summer" "spring has sprung" say whatever you want, I could care less, back in September I called for record warm Met Autumn, did pretty well there. In October called for 37 inches of snow at bdr with above normal winter temps, called for +1.2 at BDR, that was horrific, way too cold, but it was back in October when most were calling for an epic Jan (outside of the sne mets). Guessing on warmth and lack of snow is never popular, there has been zero reason to weenie out or wishcast or talk about snow and cold, zero since November 1st. Didnt ORH just tie for 1st place for least snowfall ever in December............and the other sites in the top 3? Your points would be valid if we were discussing the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Eventually, you have to start believing the data being presented to you, while questioning exactly what the results are. That's pretty much what most people are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The Euro's torch is dependent on that cutoff lagging behind ... again a bias of the model. It has ridging breaking over top of the cutoff into New England. If the low progressed east faster, that ridge would fall in behind it and subsequently be flattened by the incoming significant trough into the Plains. At the same time, I say it's a bias of the Euro, however the GFS has trended closer to that solution, soo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The NAO will not flip negative by the 13th. tweet. #MNoyesandKWood@coWOTY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 #MNoyesandKWood@coWOTY Just to clarify what Matt said http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2012/01/8-to-14-day-forecast-the-pattern-may-finally-change-to-bring-snow-to-the-northeast-next-week.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Joe I want to thank you for the resulting burst of posts which describe all of the things going for a pattern change. Thanks for that man...I needed it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Just to clarify what Matt said http://www.mattnoyes...-next-week.html Thanks for posting this Ginx. I think a strong cold front clearing through Florida this year is perhaps the first step in a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 If he is thinking 8-14 day as in after Jan 13th, then that is reasonable. However, I could see another possible brief warm up at some point next week, as was mentioned earlier. It might not happen, but some guidance suggests it. I still don't think the NAO goes negative until way later this month or even next month, but for now...we should just concentrate on the PAC since that will be the main driver of this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 unless the huge PV can be dislodged to the hudson bay area, we'll continue to see nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Thanks for posting this Ginx. I think a strong cold front clearing through Florida this year is perhaps the first step in a pattern change. He described in simplistic terms what a lot of us including me underestimated, the intensity and long lasting impact of a torch summer and fall. The signs of no cold even on backsides of systems had me baffled for a while, the total lack of US snow over also made no sense. The more I thought about it the more what Matt says here makes sense. Perhaps now a month late we begin true winter, hopefully the season is extended that month. I am with you, good times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 If he is thinking 8-14 day as in after Jan 13th, then that is reasonable. However, I could see another possible brier warm up at some point next week, as was mentioned earlier. It might not happen, but some guidance suggests it. I still don't think the NAO goes negative until way later this month or even next month, but for now...we should just concentrate on the PAC since that will be the main driver of this pattern. i agree. i'm hearing about the nao going negative in a couple places...not sure i see it. might be a case of simply looking at the index chart and not the actual positioning of the features in play? i see lots of +nao. LOL but even if you "buy" the gefs taking the nao down, it doesn't really go "negative" it's more neutral *and* it's still been averaging out on the upper side of the mean so that alone is a red flag. some calculations don't even go neutral too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 unless the huge PV can be dislodged to the hudson bay area, we'll continue to see nothing A split in the PV and displacement is key, signs of such need to be more consistent I agree. Euro ENS are very encouraging in the 11-15 day range regarding that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 He described in simplistic terms what a lot of us including me underestimated, the intensity and long lasting impact of a torch summer and fall. The signs of no cold even on backsides of systems had me baffled for a while, the total lack of US snow over also made no sense. The more I thought about it the more what Matt says here makes sense. Perhaps now a month late we begin true winter, hopefully the season is extended that month. I am with you, good times ahead. It goes back to what many of us have said here. Stable patterns have a way of self sustaining until a larger force is able to give it the boot. I'm not sure this heat budget was the cause of all this since we did have ugly Pacific flow, but it's all related to a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Holton defines a "major" warming as a wind anomaly reversal reaching 30mb ... so from there, most do propagate. This one didn't come close; it was a minor warming. Whether something follows is another story. Sometimes minor warming precede ones that propagate downward, usually resulting in a wave number 2, or vortex split. There are a few examples in the data set where "minor" events propagated, though - but we're getting at the same thing, yes... There is a threshold where the magnitude of the propagations appears to need to meet or exceed for a more obvious AO response. That said, the far right edge of the 2011 final graphical presentation does actually show a U-vector negative anomaly was occurring with the warm onset...the very lower boundary of which was down to the 30hPa level - granted, not huge, but present nonetheless. Using the data source I use, I couldn't see the pattern of behavior over the last 3 days because there was a data blackout associated with the roll-over to the new year. Now that they are back on line, it does appear that this first warm emergence may be relegated to static altitude - but as you intimated and I agree, it could also precede a more significant event. The other thing, these are often "nodal" in nature, and it could still be the same event where the next node is more powerful. The wave 1 gp flux was very high on the first emergence, which makes me a little hesitent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 i agree. i'm hearing about the nao going negative in a couple places...not sure i see it. might be a case of simply looking at the index chart and not the actual positioning of the features in play? i see lots of +nao. LOL but even if you "buy" the gefs taking the nao down, it doesn't really go "negative" it's more neutral *and* it's still been averaging out on the upper SD side of the mean so that alone is a red flag. some calculations don't even go neutral too. I agree. I'm a pattern features guy, so I like to look at the H5 pattern and then see what's up. We still have the vortex in the Davis Straits, which is still a +NAO. However, I think the other areas of the domain are becoming more dominated by ridging which is probably causing the indices to go more neutral. I like seeing ridging into the AO region so that's a good thing, but to me...the NAO will be positive for a while....jmho. But, that does not mean bad things for us, as long we the ridging materializes. So far, it seems to be progressing as forecast and I don't see it taking a step back yet. The question I have is whether the PNA goes into the tank a little too much....and how persistent will this ridge be. I think we need another week to really get a feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 By the way Sam, I meant major as in very warm temp anomalies, not by Holton's definition. Just saw your post from last evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Looks like the GFS is developing a wave along the front at day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Looks like the GFS is developing a wave along the front at day 5. yeah....i've seen enough of those this year. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I agree. I'm a pattern features guy, so I like to look at the H5 pattern and then see what's up. We still have the vortex in the Davis Straits, which is still a +NAO. However, I think the other areas of the domain are becoming more dominated by ridging which is probably causing the indices to go more neutral. I like seeing ridging into the AO region so that's a good thing, but to me...the NAO will be positive for a while....jmho. But, that does not mean bad things for us, as long we the ridging materializes. So far, it seems to be progressing as forecast and I don't see it taking a step back yet. The question I have is whether the PNA goes into the tank a little too much....and how persistent will this ridge be. I think we need another week to really get a feel. Would ridging in the AO area tend to want to dislodge that vortex a bit, perhaps towards Hudson's Bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 yeah....i've seen enough of those this year. LOL. lol, I know exactly where you're coming from there. Get this down to 2-3 days out and I'll feel a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Looks like the GFS is developing a wave along the front at day 5. That's the same one the EUro and GGEM have right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.