CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Right..One day around 40-45 Sat and snow later Sunday Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Right..One day around 40-45 Sat and snow later Sunday Any warm up will be quick and muted. Box has it remaining in the 30's here now a marked improvement from earlier forecasts. Hope the doom and gloomers have some salt because it's going to be time to eat crow soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Any warm up will be quick and muted. Box has it remaining in the 30's here now a marked improvement from earlier forecasts. Hope the doom and gloomers have some salt because it's going to be time to eat crow soon. You'll be near 40 on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 sunday PM is another needle threader...i wouldn't put too much hope in that one yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 sunday PM is another needle threader...i wouldn't put too much hope in that one yet assuming it even evolved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 sunday PM is another needle threader...i wouldn't put too much hope in that one yet Yeah exactly. I don't have much excitement for that thing right now. I'm still not completely sold on a prolonged pattern change just yet. I want to see how we look once we get this in the 6-10 day, and also...I want to make sure that ridge stays put and doesn't retrograde. I do feel optimistic of an increased chance of more wintry wx, but there are still some questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Yeah exactly. I don't have much excitement for that thing right now. I'm still not completely sold on a prolonged pattern change just yet. I want to see how we look once we get this in the 6-10 day, and also...I want to make sure that ridge stays put and doesn't retrograde. I do feel optimistic of an increased chance of more wintry wx, but there are still some questions. You have had that avatar for a long time. Here's a suggestion to freshen it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 You have had that avatar for a long time. Here's a suggestion to freshen it up. LOL, well like I said...I'm optimistic for improved chances of wintry wx, but want to see how it looks as we get closer, and whether or not this is here to stay for a bit, and not gone after a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Any warm up will be quick and muted. Box has it remaining in the 30's here now a marked improvement from earlier forecasts. Hope the doom and gloomers have some salt because it's going to be time to eat crow soon. Its mid winter now, one of these days you will get it right, just by pure luck LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Hopefully this next round of warming in the stratosphere is enough to really get the AO to drop..maybe later this month and into February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Somehow this is what I'm reminded of Mark... lol...i've never heard that. I couldn't stand how the perreniel garden flower stems hadn't been covered or crushed by snow yet...I felt like they were taunting me....so I cut them down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 lol...i've never heard that. I couldn't stand how the perreniel garden flower stems hadn't been covered or crushed by snow yet...I felt like they were taunting me....so I cut them down. Wow , that surprised me, classic tune Marko. Suck, sucky suckage, winter 11 rolls along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Wow , that surprised me, classic tune Marko. Suck, sucky suckage, winter 11 rolls along. I'm 48....missed the peak of the Stones. The models are going to struggle withe pattern change....suddenly we'll be looking at a snowstorm 3 days out ... the worm is turning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I see a couple chances for light snow over the next week...but nothing remotely close to true excitement. BTV is on-board for a few fluffy inches Thursday into Friday (looks like a 1-3 incher to me) and then maybe some flurries over the weekend but jeez this is as boring as it gets. AS OF 310 AM EST TUESDAY...TRYING TO FIND SOMETHING SIGNIFICANT TO TALK ABOUT DURING THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT MONDAY...BUT HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF THE COLD SEASON CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE HORIZON. CURRENT AO/NAO ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS REMAIN POSITIVE...POSSIBLY TRENDING NEAR NEUTRAL TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. THIS WOULD FAVOR A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND MODERATELY AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION EVERY FEW DAYS. GIVEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN...MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND ANY LIGHT SNOWS/SHSN WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BEST THREAT OF THIS OCCURRING WILL BE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SUNDAY. A FEW FLUFFY INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE...BUT OVERALL FAIRLY INCONSEQUENTIAL. GENERALLY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE BROADER VALLEYS. I WILL NOTE THAT THIS MORNING`S ECMWF DOES OFFER CONTINUITY WITH ITS PRIOR 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUN SHOWING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MORE NORTHWARD SOLUTION WITH A MODEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR IMMEDIATE SOUTH DURING THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME. IF TRUE...A SOMEWHAT HIGHER THREAT OF MODEST ACCUMULATING SNOWS IS PLAUSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF SUPPORT FROM THIS MORNING`S OPERATIONAL GFS OR SUPPORTING GEFS SOLUTIONS WILL MAINTAIN JUST A CHANCE OF FLURRIES/SHSN NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY COLD FRIDAY...MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...THEN BACK TO NORMAL BY NEXT MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I'm 48....missed the peak of the Stones. The models are going to struggle withe pattern change....suddenly we'll be looking at a snowstorm 3 days out ... the worm is turning Well 6-7 days but who's counting?....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 maybe some folks can snag a coating or so tomorrow night. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 HPC has a weak low just off CC on Sat that deepens a little to s of NS on Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Well 6-7 days but who's counting?....lol Well this one doesn't look like a storm yet does it? Just one model has it? Or do the other globals show it? I'm saying maybe Thursday we get up and discover, oh sh**, we have a storm coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Noyes chucks deep..no Scooter caution here Add to this the forecast teleconnection flip to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation somewhere around January 13, and I think the forecast of colder than normal, and wetter than normal (whiter for many) for the Week 2 period is the best forecast possible for most of the Northeast quarter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Noyes chucks deep..no Scooter caution here Add to this the forecast teleconnection flip to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation somewhere around January 13, and I think the forecast of colder than normal, and wetter than normal (whiter for many) for the Week 2 period is the best forecast possible for most of the Northeast quarter. The NAO will not flip negative by the 13th. tweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Noyes chucks deep..no Scooter caution here Add to this the forecast teleconnection flip to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation somewhere around January 13, and I think the forecast of colder than normal, and wetter than normal (whiter for many) for the Week 2 period is the best forecast possible for most of the Northeast quarter. Awful, just awful, his mid Dec cold and snow prediction was even worse, negative NAO by jan 13th LOL LOL LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Awful, just awful, his mid Dec cold and snow prediction was even worse, negative NAO by jan 13th LOL LOL LOL No need to go too overboard in the other direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The NAO will not flip negative by the 13th. tweet. It may not..but he's usually good at seeing pattern flips Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 It may not..but he's usually good at seeing pattern flips Well we all see some changes, but I think he's weenie-ing out a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 As far as I can tell its status quo......couple cool days surrounded by well above normal, even when we get ridging in ak and greenland the se ridge is overbearing. Its been at ten days for 2 months, lowest climo temps are now less than two weeks away. At some point we begin to run out of time, I am sure it will snow this winter, but I highly doubt we lock into any sustained winter pattern no matter how many times Joe Bastardi flips, then flops. I dont even see a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Awful, just awful, his mid Dec cold and snow prediction was even worse, negative NAO by jan 13th LOL LOL LOL Really dude, really? Yea he missed Dec like most but c'mon man is this necessary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Really dude, really? Yea he missed Dec like most but c'mon man is this necessary? No, wrong, in mid Dec he called for snow and cold at Christmas, and yes, negative nao in 9 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 No, wrong, in mid Dec he called for snow and cold at Christmas, and yes, negative nao in 9 days? You posted the op, think maybe he is buying the ENS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Posting a day10 euro op is horrible dude. C'mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Posting a day10 euro op is horrible dude. C'mon. Especially when the ENS show this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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