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sunday PM is another needle threader...i wouldn't put too much hope in that one yet

Yeah exactly. I don't have much excitement for that thing right now. I'm still not completely sold on a prolonged pattern change just yet. I want to see how we look once we get this in the 6-10 day, and also...I want to make sure that ridge stays put and doesn't retrograde. I do feel optimistic of an increased chance of more wintry wx, but there are still some questions.

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Yeah exactly. I don't have much excitement for that thing right now. I'm still not completely sold on a prolonged pattern change just yet. I want to see how we look once we get this in the 6-10 day, and also...I want to make sure that ridge stays put and doesn't retrograde. I do feel optimistic of an increased chance of more wintry wx, but there are still some questions.

You have had that avatar for a long time. Here's a suggestion to freshen it up.

caution-sign.jpg

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You have had that avatar for a long time. Here's a suggestion to freshen it up.

caution-sign.jpg

LOL, well like I said...I'm optimistic for improved chances of wintry wx, but want to see how it looks as we get closer, and whether or not this is here to stay for a bit, and not gone after a week.

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Any warm up will be quick and muted. Box has it remaining in the 30's here now a marked improvement from earlier forecasts. Hope the doom and gloomers have some salt because it's going to be time to eat crow soon.

Its mid winter now, one of these days you will get it right, just by pure luck LOL

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I see a couple chances for light snow over the next week...but nothing remotely close to true excitement. BTV is on-board for a few fluffy inches Thursday into Friday (looks like a 1-3 incher to me) and then maybe some flurries over the weekend but jeez this is as boring as it gets.

AS OF 310 AM EST TUESDAY...TRYING TO FIND SOMETHING SIGNIFICANT

TO TALK ABOUT DURING THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK INTO

NEXT MONDAY...BUT HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF THE COLD SEASON

CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE

HORIZON. CURRENT AO/NAO ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS REMAIN

POSITIVE...POSSIBLY TRENDING NEAR NEUTRAL TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF

THE MONTH. THIS WOULD FAVOR A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND MODERATELY

AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH

OCCASIONAL WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED

FRONTS SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION EVERY FEW DAYS. GIVEN THESE

SYSTEMS WILL BE OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN...MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY

LIMITED AND ANY LIGHT SNOWS/SHSN WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE

HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BEST THREAT OF THIS OCCURRING WILL BE

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SUNDAY. A FEW FLUFFY

INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID

AND DONE...BUT OVERALL FAIRLY INCONSEQUENTIAL. GENERALLY LITTLE

TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE BROADER VALLEYS. I WILL NOTE

THAT THIS MORNING`S ECMWF DOES OFFER CONTINUITY WITH ITS PRIOR

12Z DETERMINISTIC RUN SHOWING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MORE NORTHWARD

SOLUTION WITH A MODEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR

IMMEDIATE SOUTH DURING THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME. IF TRUE...A

SOMEWHAT HIGHER THREAT OF MODEST ACCUMULATING SNOWS IS PLAUSIBLE

ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF SUPPORT FROM THIS MORNING`S OPERATIONAL

GFS OR SUPPORTING GEFS SOLUTIONS WILL MAINTAIN JUST A CHANCE OF

FLURRIES/SHSN NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY COLD FRIDAY...MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL

BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...THEN BACK TO NORMAL BY NEXT MONDAY.

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Noyes chucks deep..no Scooter caution here

Add to this the forecast teleconnection flip to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation somewhere around January 13, and I think the forecast of colder than normal, and wetter than normal (whiter for many) for the Week 2 period is the best forecast possible for most of the Northeast quarter.

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Noyes chucks deep..no Scooter caution here

Add to this the forecast teleconnection flip to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation somewhere around January 13, and I think the forecast of colder than normal, and wetter than normal (whiter for many) for the Week 2 period is the best forecast possible for most of the Northeast quarter.

The NAO will not flip negative by the 13th. :weenie: tweet.

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Noyes chucks deep..no Scooter caution here

Add to this the forecast teleconnection flip to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation somewhere around January 13, and I think the forecast of colder than normal, and wetter than normal (whiter for many) for the Week 2 period is the best forecast possible for most of the Northeast quarter.

Awful, just awful, his mid Dec cold and snow prediction was even worse, negative NAO by jan 13th LOL LOL LOL

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As far as I can tell its status quo......couple cool days surrounded by well above normal, even when we get ridging in ak and greenland the se ridge is overbearing. Its been at ten days for 2 months, lowest climo temps are now less than two weeks away. At some point we begin to run out of time, I am sure it will snow this winter, but I highly doubt we lock into any sustained winter pattern no matter how many times Joe Bastardi flips, then flops.

I dont even see a pattern change.

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