Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I wish google would give an opinion why this pattern locked in, damn lurkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 They see dead vortices. It's happening dammit! The arc of history bends towards snowstorms. This could start to happen quickly I think....maybe even faster than we think. The last time I thought that though.... Somehow this is what I'm reminded of Mark... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 GFS has lt snow for much of Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 GFS has lt snow for much of Wed Like about 10 flakes in a 6 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 More importantly, it has it snowing (maybe)during the Giants playoff game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Like about 10 flakes in a 6 hour period. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 00z GFS 168h...Mmmmmmm.. digging vortmax with a high in canada and a coastal low coming up the coast.... Mmmmmmmm (cue homer simpson donut voice) Then it cuts off in bermuda for days...weird... but potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 00z GFS is closer to an east coast snow storm, but by different means than the euro. GFS now doesn't even cutoff part of the trough and swings the whole thing through. Could definitely be a winter storm this way, but anything between the euro and GFS is suppression. Hopefully one starts trending strongly toward the other. Meeting in the middle would be uneventful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Check out the "gradient pattern" out in clown range. Big time -PNA and we're battling the SE ridge. Verbatim it's curtains south of the Pike but who knows where the gradient will set up at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 3, 2012 Author Share Posted January 3, 2012 Check out the "gradient pattern" out in clown range. Big time -PNA and we're battling the SE ridge. Verbatim it's curtains south of the Pike but who knows where the gradient will set up at this point. I think we've been here before but earlier in the year...late November when we were getting people excited about a modeled gradient pattern. It didn't end well. It's a colder time of the year and with some things changing I'm hoping it's going to turn out better but I am not very excited yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Let's hope something can work out for us around the 10th-12th b/c that really could be our last shot until at least sometime towards the end of the month. Looks like around mid-month another system will come through with another strong cold front, however, it appears that the NAO/AO will head positive once again with the EPO kind of fluctuating. -PNA builds big time and the SE ridge really pumps up and there is really nothing to fight back the SE ridge...the NAO, even when it dips near negative just won't stay negative...the 500mb zonal winds are just so strong and this is one thing that is just negating against a -NAO from developing and sustaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Cross polar flow, negative PNA, huge SE ridge. Looks very snowy from the Rockies and Plains to the Lakes in a classic La Nina pattern. But disconcerting to have the GFS (a model not known to be shy about over-doing cold air penetration), actually showing most of the cold locked up to our north. No decent high pressure in Quebec. Maybe we get lucky and the cold presses enough for just one lousy snow event, but who knows. I think we've been here before but earlier in the year...late November when we were getting people excited about a modeled gradient pattern. It didn't end well. It's a colder time of the year and with some things changing I'm hoping it's going to turn out better but I am not very excited yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 None of the indices are on our side...only hope would be the dense intense cold air can press the boundary south enough in the dead of winter for us to be on the right side of at least one sw flow event. Let's hope something can work out for us around the 10th-12th b/c that really could be our last shot until at least sometime towards the end of the month. Looks like around mid-month another system will come through with another strong cold front, however, it appears that the NAO/AO will head positive once again with the EPO kind of fluctuating. -PNA builds big time and the SE ridge really pumps up and there is really nothing to fight back the SE ridge...the NAO, even when it dips near negative just won't stay negative...the 500mb zonal winds are just so strong and this is one thing that is just negating against a -NAO from developing and sustaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I think we've been here before but earlier in the year...late November when we were getting people excited about a modeled gradient pattern. It didn't end well. It's a colder time of the year and with some things changing I'm hoping it's going to turn out better but I am not very excited yet. True, the proverbial rubber band has to snap sometime though. Maybe it will be in February..heck if I know. Maybe the Cape pulls a 2/26/99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 None of the indices are on our side...only hope would be the dense intense cold air can press the boundary south enough in the dead of winter for us to be on the right side of at least one sw flow event. Nothing is on our side and if anything it just appears to get rather worse. Sure it's nice to see all that cold get bottled up in western Canada and western tier of the US but who cares really...if there is nothing that will happen to deliver it here what good is it? Take this cold snap for example, we will freeze our fannies off for a few days but what do we get out of it? Jacking up our heat? We moderate within days and the only "storm" potential looks to be around the 10th or so and right now that appears to be rather suppressed and well out to sea. The pattern on the long-range GFS looks absolutely horrible with that major -PNA building...if at least we could get a solid -NAO/-AO that would really help to suppress the SE ridge a bit and perhaps make for an active storm track here but the NAO-AO look to be no help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Nothing is on our side and if anything it just appears to get rather worse. Sure it's nice to see all that cold get bottled up in western Canada and western tier of the US but who cares really...if there is nothing that will happen to deliver it here what good is it? Take this cold snap for example, we will freeze our fannies off for a few days but what do we get out of it? Jacking up our heat? We moderate within days and the only "storm" potential looks to be around the 10th or so and right now that appears to be rather suppressed and well out to sea. The pattern on the long-range GFS looks absolutely horrible with that major -PNA building...if at least we could get a solid -NAO/-AO that would really help to suppress the SE ridge a bit and perhaps make for an active storm track here but the NAO-AO look to be no help. The -PNA really looks to dominate in the longer range, which means that the AK block may release cold air that becomes trapped in the West behind a monster SE ridge. The 0z GFS showed the potential for a poor set-up despite a -EPO in the fantasy range...might end up being a pattern like January 1950 where the west sees arctic air but it never penetrates east: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The -PNA really looks to dominate in the longer range, which means that the AK block may release cold air that becomes trapped in the West behind a monster SE ridge. The 0z GFS showed the potential for a poor set-up despite a -EPO in the fantasy range...might end up being a pattern like January 1950 where the west sees arctic air but it never penetrates east: Like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I think we've been here before but earlier in the year...late November when we were getting people excited about a modeled gradient pattern. It didn't end well. It's a colder time of the year and with some things changing I'm hoping it's going to turn out better but I am not very excited yet. A -EPO gradient pattern is far more hopeful than a +EPO. There is a huge difference. Maybe we still get screwed but at least we have a legit chance in the -EPO gradient pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 A -EPO gradient pattern is far more hopeful than a +EPO. There is a huge difference. Maybe we still get screwed but at least we have a legit chance in the -EPO gradient pattern. Well hopefully the -EPO is significant enough to where it's not being overthrown by something else which may be more overpowering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Euro is a complete disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I still want to see this in the 6-10 day. And also, we have to hope the ridge doesn't retrograde west. Something to watch.The end of the euro ensembles try to do this, but we are also talking about the end of the run, so it may not matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Euro is a complete disaster Wrong forum dude. It delivers a warning criteria snowfall up here this Sunday. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Snowy weekend for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Snowy weekend for us? Probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Probably not. what I mean is if we get anything, it might be more Sunday night. Saturday will torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Nice to see the Euro ensembles not agreeing with the warm coastal of the op on d10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Nice to see the Euro ensembles not agreeing with the warm coastal of the op on d10. No, but I would not be shocked if we warmed up a bit. It may not be totally out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 No, but I would not be shocked if we warmed up a bit. It may not be totally out to lunch. Well the op has a big storm and the ensemble mean doesn't which is not surprising. But at d10 I'm not expecting a stable solution either way. The GFS ensemble mean out in the far range is more consistent with prior runs and not surprisingly the op has a different solution for 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Well the op has a big storm and the ensemble mean doesn't which is not surprising. But at d10 I'm not expecting a stable solution either way. The GFS ensemble mean out in the far range is more consistent with prior runs and not surprisingly the op has a different solution for 6z. I think it's possible we have a brief warm up before we cool down again, but I could be wrong. Hopefully the euro ensembles are more correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 what I mean is if we get anything, it might be more Sunday night. Saturday will torch. Right..One day around 40-45 Sat and snow later Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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