40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I love the way Kev just blatantly ignores all of the WOTY references Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I love the way Kev just blatantly ignores all of the WOTY references He deleted the post I made on his Facebook page about it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Finally sensing the major SSW we had/have What major SSW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 He deleted the post I made on his Facebook page about it lol I was gonna post the trophy that I posted for the FB group on his wall, but I figured he'd just delete it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Finally sensing the major SSW we had/have LOL what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Kevin Wood WOTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I was gonna post the trophy that I posted for the FB group on his wall, but I figured he'd just delete it. You should just to see how fast it's gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Here is a good look at the pattern evolving Pretty classic -EPO/-PNA pattern...the cold is centered in W Canada and N Rockies/Plains...but it will ooze over the top into E Canada in that pattern and down to us at times provided the SE ridge doesn't get too robust. Also note the analog dates look a lot better. Even the 2002 date was the Patriots/Raiders snow event. I love that pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I love that pattern Certainly has been good to us in the past! I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I love that pattern The CoT is going to be rockin' soon Mahk. Nice to see a few less tailpipe sucking posts.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Certainly has been good to us in the past! I'll take it Much better for you guys than down here potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The CoT is going to be rockin' soon Mahk. Nice to see a few less tailpipe sucking posts.lol We still need some luck, but it looks better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Much better for you guys than down here potentially. I'm not ready to throw a parade until it gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Finally sensing the major SSW we had/have Not sure we should qualify this as "major" thus far... but, the sudden onset is indeed occurring. The magnitude, and as to whether it's a propagating burster or not, are important questions yet to be answered as to whether we can expect an eventual exertion on the Arctic Oscillation - that being a reduction in the index of course. I don't know enough about how integrated the Euro Weeklies product - much less how it is even derived - is into the Arctic Domain, and up at altitudes between 5 and 30hPa, where the sudden warming is currently noted; it is possible they wouldn't even be detecting much influence at this time. As of last check the region of warming continues to emerge and has exceed moderate warm anomaly in temperature, and is also strong in the geopotential height Wave product, showing that it does have mass. These are not hurting an eventual propagation's cause - no. It is important to note that weaker warm events have propagated. There is also most likely a correlation threshold where below a given anomaly's strength might mean less notable effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The euro ensembles actually show another strong warming event taking place near day 10 and moving into the Davis Straits area and northeast Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The euro ensembles actually show another strong warming event taking place near day 10 and moving into the Davis Straits area and northeast Canada. That could bode well for finally getting the NAO to drop by the end of January and into early Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 That could bode well for finally getting the NAO to drop by the end of January and into early Feb That's what I'm thinking. I know there are other factors, but perhaps it will finally break the back of the +AO. It's really come on strong in the last 3 days. 4 days ago, the ensembles barely hinted at any warming at all. They must be seeing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 That could bode well for finally getting the NAO to drop by the end of January and into early Feb Gfs ensm forecasts have the nao trending towards 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I wonder if the globals will play a little catch in the extended period with this warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Holton defines a "major" warming as a wind anomaly reversal reaching 30mb ... so from there, most do propagate. This one didn't come close; it was a minor warming. Whether something follows is another story. Sometimes minor warming precede ones that propagate downward, usually resulting in a wave number 2, or vortex split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 That's what I'm thinking. I know there are other factors, but perhaps it will finally break the back of the +AO. It's really come on strong in the last 3 days. 4 days ago, the ensembles barely hinted at any warming at all. They must be seeing something. The work is already being done on the AO I think over the next 2 weeks...that EPO ridging might try and hook up with the Asian ridge poking up near the north pole. Additional strat warming on the Atlantic side should only erode the +AO even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The work is already being done on the AO I think over the next 2 weeks...that EPO ridging might try and hook up with the Asian ridge poking up near the north pole. Additional strat warming on the Atlantic side should only erode the +AO even more. and the sun is definitely quieting down too, which is conducive to a -AO during an E QBO http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Much better for you guys than down here potentially. yes but I was hoping to see some 07-08 dats in the analogue.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The CoT is going to be rockin' soon Mahk. Nice to see a few less tailpipe sucking posts.lol Ullr works in mysterious ways... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I'm not ready to throw a parade until it gets closer. I'm taking out my leather hat, Raybans, tight tshirt, really short cutoff jeans, white socks and construction boots. What are you going to wear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I'm taking out my leather hat, Raybans, tight tshirt, really short cutoff jeans, white socks and construction boots. What are you going to wear? Village people parade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 That's what I'm thinking. I know there are other factors, but perhaps it will finally break the back of the +AO. It's really come on strong in the last 3 days. 4 days ago, the ensembles barely hinted at any warming at all. They must be seeing something. They see dead vortices. It's happening dammit! The arc of history bends towards snowstorms. This could start to happen quickly I think....maybe even faster than we think. The last time I thought that though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Village people parade? You in? OUTFIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 That could bode well for finally getting the NAO to drop by the end of January and into early Feb Just in time for the snowfall apex of climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Just in time for the snowfall apex of climo. Sometimes I wonder how this pattern ever locked in. I will say this, there is no doubt in my mind now AO is king, all other indices pale in comparison. Death by vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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