weathafella Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 My early 12/10-25 pattern change posts appear delayed for about a month. Delayed but not denied,,,,full steam ahead folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 If you go back to HM's thread before the winter on big snowfall gradients, QBO, and Aleutian ridge, you will see how we were saying we want a bigger Aleutian ridge poking up into the arctic to get a more favorable gradient pattern. This winter has shown us why...its been stuck way south with the AK vortex...but now that it is finally flexing its muscles in the long range, we can see how the pattern looks a lot better for us. When(approx. timeframe) can we realistically expect snow/ice chances? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 EPO controls my emotions i also have some fear of negative PNAs and monstrous AOs but EPO still in control overall i'm not afraid of the NAO at all EPO by far dominates your pattern up there that far north...PNA and NAO actually have almost no correlation to your temps...only very mildly. EPO dominates our pattern too down here...but NAO and PNA def have more influence than up there. But generally -EPO/-PNA is ok here...its at least a lot better than a big +EPO...that just makes it almost impossible to sustain any type of winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 When(approx. timeframe) can we realistically expect snow/ice chances? early feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 It might just be about time to take our pants off You and joe have quit on winter...not allowed to enjoy any threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 You and joe have quit on winter...not allowed to enjoy any threats. Please don't ever lump me in with him. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Please don't ever lump me in with him. Thanks Well you did say the rest of winter would be snowless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 early feb Jan 10-15th?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Well you did say the rest of winter would be snowless. I did. Yes. ..I also said to troll me and bump that thread if/wehn I'm wrong..That doesn't lump me in with him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I did. Yes. ..I also said to troll me and bump that thread if/wehn I'm wrong..That doesn't lump me in with him We kept telling you to stop looking at the OP Euro but you didn't listen. It didn't even go out far enough to see the changes on the ensembles...and the ensembles were probably rushed too...so in reality it was like Jan 15-20 when we'd see things really change for the better. It could still stink, but at least the PAC is better. We can hope that the SE ridge doesn't kill us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Please don't ever lump me in with him. Thanks Good point. You're WOTY and he's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 early feb Thats just wrong... 17th-25th first chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 It might just be about time to take our pants off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 We kept telling you to stop looking at the OP Euro but you didn't listen. It didn't even go out far enough to see the changes on the ensembles...and the ensembles were probably rushed too...so in reality it was like Jan 15-20 when we'd see things really change for the better. It could still stink, but at least the PAC is better. We can hope that the SE ridge doesn't kill us. So we still have 14-18 days till we can look for wintry precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 So we still have 14-18 days till we can look for wintry precip? No, but that is likely when the newer pattern sets in. We might even get a period of light snow or snow showers on Wed night...maybe even a little overrunning snow on Fri if it works out. But the ridging in AK prob happens sometime after the 12th or 13th...which should make the pattern less hostile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 No, but that is likely when the newer pattern sets in. We might even get a period of light snow or snow showers on Wed night...maybe even a little overrunning snow on Fri if it works out. But the ridging in AK prob happens sometime after the 12th or 13th...which should make the pattern less hostile. I 'm starting to feel like a huge weight is slowly being lifted off our shoulders. Hopefully a collective sigh of relief is coming for all of us. Lord knows it's been a difficult and trying 45-60 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I 'm starting to feel like a huge weight is slowly being lifted off our shoulders. Hopefully a collective sigh of relief is coming for all of us. Lord knows it's been a difficult and trying 45-60 days It will be like "yay! Spring is here!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Here is a good look at the pattern evolving Pretty classic -EPO/-PNA pattern...the cold is centered in W Canada and N Rockies/Plains...but it will ooze over the top into E Canada in that pattern and down to us at times provided the SE ridge doesn't get too robust. Also note the analog dates look a lot better. Even the 2002 date was the Patriots/Raiders snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Here is a good look at the pattern evolving Pretty classic -EPO/-PNA pattern...the cold is centered in W Canada and N Rockies/Plains...but it will ooze over the top into E Canada in that pattern and down to us at times provided the SE ridge doesn't get too robust. Also note the analog dates look a lot better. Even the 2002 date was the Patriots/Raiders snow event. Yeah I saw those. They looked nice with some decent dates, although no thanks to the end of Jan '96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Here is a good look at the pattern evolving Pretty classic -EPO/-PNA pattern...the cold is centered in W Canada and N Rockies/Plains...but it will ooze over the top into E Canada in that pattern and down to us at times provided the SE ridge doesn't get too robust. Also note the analog dates look a lot better. Even the 2002 date was the Patriots/Raiders snow event. Maybe it will be snowing for the Ravens/ Pats AFC championship game in Foxborough which i will be attending . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Here is a good look at the pattern evolving Pretty classic -EPO/-PNA pattern...the cold is centered in W Canada and N Rockies/Plains...but it will ooze over the top into E Canada in that pattern and down to us at times provided the SE ridge doesn't get too robust. Also note the analog dates look a lot better. Even the 2002 date was the Patriots/Raiders snow event. Looking at the EPO and now the AO ridging suggests the SE ridge has a governor if you will....very big improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Looking at the EPO and now the AO ridging suggests the SE ridge has a governor if you will....very big improvement. It's still quite the +NAO on the euro ensembles, so I think blocking is a no go in that part of the world, for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Yeah I saw those. They looked nice with some decent dates, although no thanks to the end of Jan '96. Well the very end of Jan '96 did turn cold again and had a large snow event for SE MA...we got like 6" here I think...i think it was 2/1/96. There was a lakes cutter I think on 1/27/96 and then it turned cold for another 3 weeks. But even if you hate late Jan '96, its the lowest match on the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 It's still quite the +NAO on the euro ensembles, so I think blocking is a no go in that part of the world, for now. Sure the NAO is positive but is that not ridging over the pole knocking the AO down? Thats pretty good for us and seems to reflect the euro ensembles. Even at d10 you can see the ridge In the. Pacific poking up to try to link up with the AO region. NAO seems quite positive but maybe we can live with it. Worked I. 93-94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Cue Ginxy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Sure the NAO is positive but is that not ridging over the pole knocking the AO down? Thats pretty good for us and seems to reflect the euro ensembles. Even at d10 you can see the ridge In the. Pacific poking up to try to link up with the AO region. NAO seems quite positive but maybe we can live with it. Worked I. 93-94. Yeah I'm not poo-pooing it or anything..just letting you know what it had. I think if the euro ensembles were verbatim, it would be fun around these parts, but we'll need all the amplitude we can get. I just hope the ridging doesn't weaken and the -PNA get stronger, because that could ruin the party. That's why I want to see the 11-15 day euro ensembles, move into the 6-10 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Week 4 of the weeklies is still kind of weird. They have some weak ridging right into the N-Pole, but low heights in NW Canada I guess force some ridging over the East. They did cool off by quite a bit on week 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Week 4 of the weeklies is still kind of weird. They have some weak ridging right into the N-Pole, but low heights in NW Canada I guess force some ridging over the East. They did cool off by quite a bit on week 4. I think the weeklies are definitely an improvement. Things could still be ugly if the se ridge flexes too much but there's definitely a prolonged pattern change in the PAC. Welcome to Nina! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I think the weeklies are definitely an improvement. Things could still be ugly if the se ridge flexes too much but there's definitely a prolonged pattern change in the PAC. Welcome to Nina! They have a tendency to wax and wane, but I'm glad they got a little better. I really wish we could get the NAO to cool off a bit, but I'll take things one at a time. The ensembles are nice, but lets see this in another 5 days. So far, things aren't getting worse as we get closer, so that is good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Week 4 of the weeklies is still kind of weird. They have some weak ridging right into the N-Pole, but low heights in NW Canada I guess force some ridging over the East. They did cool off by quite a bit on week 4. Finally sensing the major SSW we had/have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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